The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

       Despite the multiplicity of institutions contributing to the decision-making process in the United States of America, they interact to crystallize positions regarding international and strategic situations. The formulation of the national security policy depends on a number of institutions that complement each other in order to achieve an advanced security situation. Thus, the decision reflects the process of interaction of the existing regulatory institutions. This is because the essence of the national security and achieving its requirements also stems from the existence of a coherent system of shared beliefs and principles in the American society. Besides, these elements are the bases for achieving

Praise be to God, and may blessings and peace be upon our master and Prophet Muhammad and those who follow him, and may God be pleased with him

Taha is my guardian and whoever follows their path until the Day of Judgment. And after... The book (The Treasure in the Ten Recitations), written by Abu Muhammad Abdullah bin Abd al-Wasiti, who died in the year 710 AH, is considered one of the important books in recitations: because it included the universal custom that it contained in the books Al-Taysir by Al-Dani and Al-Irshad by Al-Falanisi, as the first of them was specialized.

Satisfy the second with the ten readings

May God bless my time, through His grace and generosity, to achieve this treasure and to publish it

The current research dealt with the issue of organizational skillfulness as an entry point to reach strategic agility. The study has been tested in Iraq's mobile operators - Asia Cell, Zain Iraq and Cork Telecom. The study was applied to a sample of (93) managers distributed at various levels of management (board members, general managers, commissioners, department managers, people managers, unit managers, office managers). The survey used the questionnaire as a key tool for collecting data and information as well as personal interviews. It has sought to test a number of hypotheses related to correlation and influence relationships between the variables of the study, in order to answer the questions related to the problem of stud

Asmari is the main productive reservoir in Abu Ghirab oilfield in the south-east part of Iraq. It has history production extends from 1976 up to now with several close periods. Recently, the reservoir suffers some problems in production, which are abstracted as water production rising with oil production declining in most wells. The water problem type of the field and wells is identified by using Chan's diagnostic plots (water oil ratio (WOR) and derivative water oil ratio (WOR') against time). The analytical results show that water problem is caused by the channeling due to high permeability zones, high water saturation zones, and faults or fracturing. The numerical approach is also used to study the water movement insi

Asmari is the main productive reservoir in Abu Ghirab oilfield in the south-east part of Iraq. It has history production extends from 1976 up to now with several close periods. Recently, the reservoir suffers some problems in production, which are abstracted as water production rising with oil production declining in most wells. The water problem type of the field and wells is identified by using Chan's diagnostic plots (water oil ratio (WOR) and derivative water oil ratio (WOR') against time). The analytical results show that water problem is caused by the channeling due to high permeability zones, high water saturation zones, and faults or fracturing. The numerical approach is also used to study the water movement inside the reser

In the present study, radon gas concentration in the shallow groundwater samples of the Abu-Jir region in Anbar governorate was measured by using Rad-7 detector. The highest radon gas level in the samples is up to 9.3 Bq/L, while the lowest level is 2.1 Bq/L, with an average of 6.44±1.8 Bq/L. The annual effective dose is varied from 33.945 μSv/y to 7.66 μSv/y, with an average of 0.145±0.06 μSv/y. Consequently, the radon level in the groundwater studied is lower than the standard recommended value (11 Bq/L) reported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). The potential source of radon is uranium-rich hydrocarbons that are leakage to the surface along the Abu-Jir Fault. This research did not indicate any ris

Poverty is defined as a low standard of living in the sense that a poor person can not afford a minimum standard of living. The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most serious problems that must be dealt with seriously. This phenomenon has persisted in Iraq for decades because of the harsh economic conditions and unstable security conditions due to the crises it has faced since 2013. This study requires much study and analysis. And rural areas as a special case. In this study, the researcher examined the poverty line as a criterion in estimating the poverty indicators, which include (poverty percentage H, poverty gap PG, poverty intensity PS), based on the continuous social and economic survey data for households in 2014. The ma

In this research was the study of the educational values ​​when Shafei, contained in hair Shafi'i, and that what the role of these values ​​in the education of generations, and the possibility of their application in the educational curriculum. Find addressed Shafei life and his time. The values ​​derived from his hair, as well as quoting from the Koran and influenced by it, which is evident in the hair, governance and eating Alomthal.okzlk Find the importance of this thought in modern education, so as to realism and ease of application. It is the search results, the Shafi'i put thought educationally integral based on the Koran rise to the level of theory. Find and conclusions: that education in its present situation