Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
Numerous regions in the city of Baghdad experience the congestion and traffic problems. Due to the religious and economic significance, Al-Kadhimiya city (inside the metropolitan range of Baghdad) was chosen as study area. The data gathering stage was separated into two branches: the questionnaire method which is utilized to estimate the traffic volumes for the chosen roads and field data collection method which included video recording and manual counting for the volumes entering the selected signal intersections. The stage of analysis and evaluation for the seventeen urban roads, one highway, and three intersections was performed by HCS-2000 software.The presented work plots a system for assessing the level of service
... Show MoreElectrical distribution system loads are permanently not fixed and alter in value and nature with time. Therefore, accurate consumer load data and models are required for performing system planning, system operation, and analysis studies. Moreover, realistic consumer load data are vital for load management, services, and billing purposes. In this work, a realistic aggregate electric load model is developed and proposed for a sample operative substation in Baghdad distribution network. The model involves aggregation of hundreds of thousands of individual components devices such as motors, appliances, and lighting fixtures. Sana’a substation in Al-kadhimiya area supplies mainly residential grade loads. Measurement-based
... Show MoreThe importance of our research is that it examines the causes and sources of the security challenges in the internal security environment of the GCC countries, and aims to address the most important issues that are of great interest, namely, the issue of inter-GCC differences and addressing the issues of regional security for the Gulf region, After it is one of the most dynamic and more polarized areas for the emergence of threats and challenges because of the multiplicity of sources of threat and their complexity due to the specificity of the strategic environment and the negative repercussions it can have on the Gulf region, especially the issue of regional security of the Gulf Cooperation Council Which has become a magnet for competing i
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Abstract has many advantages as has historically been one of the regions leading cultural centers . for centuries , it has been a center of commertial and financial operations in Iraq. it is also rich in archeological sites and natural resources, but because of its wars and implementation of urban development strategies are effective and sustainable , so contracted the secretariat of Baghdad with the company (khatib and scirntiffic) for the preparation of the comprehensive development plan for the city of Baghdad in 2030 and funded by the world bank and the fact that the plan was approved ( three stages of it ) and only one phase remains the fourth stage, which is under discussion the aim of the
... Show MoreAn adaptive nonlinear neural controller to reduce the nonlinear flutter in 2-D wing is proposed in the paper. The nonlinearities in the system come from the quasi steady aerodynamic model and torsional spring in pitch direction. Time domain simulations are used to examine the dynamic aero elastic instabilities of the system (e.g. the onset of flutter and limit cycle oscillation, LCO). The structure of the controller consists of two models :the modified Elman neural network (MENN) and the feed forward multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). The MENN model is trained with off-line and on-line stages to guarantee that the outputs of the model accurately represent the plunge and pitch motion of the wing and this neural model acts as the identifier. Th
... Show MoreThis paper presents the implementation of a complex fractional order proportional integral derivative (CPID) and a real fractional order PID (RPID) controllers. The analysis and design of both controllers were carried out in a previous work done by the author, where the design specifications were classified into easy (case 1) and hard (case 2) design specifications. The main contribution of this paper is combining CRONE approximation and linear phase CRONE approximation to implement the CPID controller. The designed controllers-RPID and CPID-are implemented to control flowing water with low pressure circuit, which is a first order plus dead time system. Simulation results demonstrate that while the implemented RPID controller fails to stabi
... Show MoreThis investigation was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of using Hydrated lime as a (partial substitute) by weight of filler (lime stone powder) with five consecutive percentage namely (1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0) % by means of aggregate treatment, by introducing dry lime on dry and 2–3% Saturated surface aggregate on both wearing and binder coarse. Marshall design method, indirect tensile test and permanent deformation under repeated loading of Pneumatic repeated load system at full range of temperature (20, 40, 60) C0 were examined The study revealed that the use of 2.0% and 1.5 % of dry and wet replacement extend the pavement characteristics by improving the Marshall properties and increasing the TSR%. Finally, increase permanent
... Show MoreWith the vast usage of network services, Security became an important issue for all network types. Various techniques emerged to grant network security; among them is Network Intrusion Detection System (NIDS). Many extant NIDSs actively work against various intrusions, but there are still a number of performance issues including high false alarm rates, and numerous undetected attacks. To keep up with these attacks, some of the academic researchers turned towards machine learning (ML) techniques to create software that automatically predict intrusive and abnormal traffic, another approach is to utilize ML algorithms in enhancing Traditional NIDSs which is a more feasible solution since they are widely spread. To upgrade t
... Show MoreThis experimental study focuses on scouring in box culvert inlets under steady-state conditions and at different percentages of blockage ranging from 0% to 65%, and also looks at the hydraulics of water in the culvert. The investigation shows that the blockage of the culverts has influenced the scouring pattern at the blocked culverts' entrances. Ten experiments were carried out at the laboratory to see how blockage impacts the scouring pattern upstream of a box culvert during steady flow. Both partially blocked and unblocked cases were implemented in this study. The experimental tests were done until the equilibrium scour occurred, which took about 3.5 hours of water flow to reach equilibrium conditions. The results r
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