Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.
In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
... Show MoreThe duration of sunshine is one of the important indicators and one of the variables for measuring the amount of solar radiation collected in a particular area. Duration of solar brightness has been used to study atmospheric energy balance, sustainable development, ecosystem evolution and climate change. Predicting the average values of sunshine duration (SD) for Duhok city, Iraq on a daily basis using the approach of artificial neural network (ANN) is the focus of this paper. Many different ANN models with different input variables were used in the prediction processes. The daily average of the month, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, cloud level and atmosp
... Show More Problem solving methods and mechanisms contribute to facilitating human life by providing tools to solve simple and complex daily problems. These mechanisms have been essential tools for professional designers and design students in solving design problems.
This research dealt with one of those mechanisms, which is the (the substance-field model model), as it has been mentioning that this mechanism is characterized by the difficulty of its application, which formed the main research problem. In home gardens (the sub-problem of research), an analysis of this problem was applied and then a solution was found to address it. The researcher used the 3dsmax program to implement the proposed design.
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The presented work shows a preliminary analytic method for estimation of load and pressure distributions on low speed wings with flow separation and wake rollup phenomena’s. A higher order vortex panel method is coupled with the numerical lifting line theory by means of iterative procedure including models of separation and wake rollup. The computer programs are written in FORTRAN which are stable and efficient.
The capability of the present method is investigated through a number of test cases with different types of wing sections (NACA 0012 and GA(W)-1) for different aspect ratios and angles of attack, the results include the lift and drag curves, lift and pressure distributions along the wing s
... Show MorePositive and negative parity states for 114Te have been studied applying the vibration al limit U(5) of Interacting boson model (IBM- 1 ) . The present results have shown their good agreement with experimental data in addition to the determination of the spin/parity of new energy levels are not assigned experimentally as the levels 0+2 and 5+1 and the levels 3"1 and 5-1 . Then back propagation multiLayer neural network used for positive and negative parity states for 114Te and shown their membership to the Vibration limit U(5) the network implemented by MATLAB system.
The method of solving volterra integral equation by using numerical solution is a simple operation but to require many memory space to compute and save the operation. The importance of this equation appeares new direction to solve the equation by using new methods to avoid obstacles. One of these methods employ neural network for obtaining the solution.
This paper presents a proposed method by using cascade-forward neural network to simulate volterra integral equations solutions. This method depends on training cascade-forward neural network by inputs which represent the mean of volterra integral equations solutions, the target of cascade-forward neural network is to get the desired output of this network. Cascade-forward neural
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