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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Proposed Agent System for Network Monitoring
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The traditional centralized network management approach presents severe efficiency and scalability limitations in large scale networks. The process of data collection and analysis typically involves huge transfers of management data to the manager which cause considerable network throughput and bottlenecks at the manager side. All these problems processed using the Agent technology as a solution to distribute the management functionality over the network elements. The proposed system consists of the server agent that is working together with clients agents to monitor the logging (off, on) of the clients computers and which user is working on it. file system watcher mechanism is used to indicate any change in files. The results were presente

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On Solving Singular Multi Point Boundary Value Problems with Nonlocal Condition
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In this paper Hermite interpolation method is used for solving linear and non-linear second order singular multi point boundary value problems with nonlocal condition. The approximate solution is found in the form of a rapidly convergent polynomial. We discuss behavior of the solution in the neighborhood of the singularity point which appears to perform satisfactorily for singular problems. The examples to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the method have been given.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Pharmaceutics
PREPARATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF ECONAZOLE NITRATE INCLUSION COMPLEX FOR OCULAR DELIVERY SYSTEM
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Objective: Econazole nitrate (ECZ) is one of the triazole antifungal drugs with poor aqueous solubility and dissolution rate; there is a need for enhancement of solubility. Therefore; inclusion complexation with β cyclodextrin (βCD) was performed. Methods: In this study kneading method and co-evaporation method of preparation of inclusion complex between βCD and ECZ using two molar ratios of βCD. The solubility of these complexes in isotonic saline solution and distilled water was studied. Complexes prepared by kneading method were used for the preparation of different ophthalmic gel formulas using carbomer (CB) and sodium carboxymethylcellulose (sod CMC) as a gelling agent. The release profile and the rheological behaviour of the gel w

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Identifying Complex Communities in Biological Networks
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    Identification of complex communities in biological networks is a critical and ongoing challenge since lots of network-related problems correspond to the subgraph isomorphism problem known in the literature as NP-hard. Several optimization algorithms have been dedicated and applied to solve this problem. The main challenge regarding the application of optimization algorithms, specifically to handle large-scale complex networks, is their relatively long execution time. Thus, this paper proposes a parallel extension of the PSO algorithm to detect communities in complex biological networks. The main contribution of this study is summarized in three- fold; Firstly, a modified PSO algorithm with a local search operator is proposed

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 12 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Plasmonic Nanoparticles Decorated Salty Paper Based on SERS Platform for Diagnostic low-Level Contamination: Lab on Paper
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In this research, a low cost, portable, disposable, environment friendly and an easy to use lab-on-paper platform sensor was made. The sensor was constructed using a mixture of Rhodamine-6G and gold nanoparticles also Sodium chloride salt. Drop–casting method was utilized as a technique to make a platform which is a commercial office paper. A substrate was characterized using Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, UV-visible spectrophotometer and Raman Spectrometer. Rh-6G Raman signal was enhanced based on Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy technique utilized gold nanoparticles. High Enhancement factor of Plasmonic commercial office paper reaches up to 0.9 x105 because of local surface pl

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Some Estimator Methods of Linear Regression Model With Auto-Correlated Errors With Application Data for the Wheat in Iraq
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This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Suggested Model For Using Customer's Data Management Information System/ A Case Study In Al-Rasheed Bank/General Agent Office/ Nothren Reigon
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This study aim to  identify the concept of  web based information systems since its one of the important topics that is  usually omitted by our organizations, in addition to,  designing a web based information system in order to manage the customers data of Al- Rasheed bank, as a unified information system that is specialized to the banking deals of the customers with the bank, and providing a suggested model to apply the virtual private network as a tool that is to protect the transmitted data through the web based information system.

This study is considered important because it deals with one of the vital topics nowadays, namely: how to make it possible to use a distributed informat

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 14 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-rafidain University College For Sciences ( Print Issn: 1681-6870 ,online Issn: 2790-2293 )
Using Nonparametric Procedure to Develop an OCMT Estimator for Big Data Linear Regression Model with Application Chemical Pollution in the Tigris River
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Chemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Predicting the future growth depending on GIS and IDRISI program, city of Najaf-Iraq
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Abstract<p>This study aims to employ modern spatial simulation models to predict the future growth of Al-Najaf city for the year 2036 by studying the change in land use for the time period (1986-2016) because of its importance in shaping future policy for the planning process and decision-making process and ensuring a sustainable urban future, using Geographical information software programs and remote sensing (GIS, IDRISI Selva) as they are appropriate tools for exploring spatial temporal changes from the local level to the global scale. The application of the Markov chain model, which is a popular model that calculates the probability of future change based on the past, and the Cellular Automa</p> ... Show More
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