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Bayesian Regularized Neural Network Model Development for Predicting Daily Rainfall from Sea Level Pressure Data: Investigation on Solving Complex Hydrology Problem
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Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNNs), Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), extreme gradient boosting (xgBoost), and hybrid neural fuzzy inference system (HNFIS) were used considering the complex relationship of rainfall with sea level pressure. Principle components of SLP domain correlated with daily rainfall were used as predictors. The results revealed that the efficacy of AI models is predicting daily rainfall one day before. The relative performance of the models revealed the higher performance of BRNN with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.678 compared with HNFIS (NRMSE = 0.708), BART (NRMSE = 0.784), xgBoost (NRMSE = 0.803), and ELM (NRMSE = 0.915). Visual inspection of predicted rainfall during model validation using density-scatter plot and other novel ways of visual comparison revealed the ability of BRNN to predict daily rainfall one day before reliably.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Efficiency Measurement Model for Postgraduate Programs and Undergraduate Programs by Using Data Envelopment Analysis
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Measuring the efficiency of postgraduate and undergraduate programs is one of the essential elements in educational process. In this study, colleges of Baghdad University and data for the academic year (2011-2012) have been chosen to measure the relative efficiencies of postgraduate and undergraduate programs in terms of their inputs and outputs. A relevant method to conduct the analysis of this data is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The effect of academic staff to the number of enrolled and alumni students to the postgraduate and undergraduate programs are the main focus of the study.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Solving the Created Equations from Power Function Distribution
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      In this paper, a new class of ordinary differential equations is designed for some functions such as probability density function, cumulative distribution function, survival function and hazard function of power function distribution, these functions are used of the class under the study. The benefit of our work is that the equations ,which are generated from some probability distributions, are used to model and find  the  solutions  of problems in our lives, and that the solutions of these equations are a solution to these problems, as the solutions of the equations under the study are the closest and the most reliable to reality. The existence and uniqueness of solutions the obtained equations in the current study are dis

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Publication Date
Thu May 10 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Securing Data in Wireless Body Area Network Using Hyper-Chaotic Zhou System
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  E-Health care system is one of the great technology enhancements via using medical devices through sensors worn or implanted in the patient's body. Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) offers astonishing help through wireless transmission of patient's data using agreed distance in which it keeps patient's status always controlled by regular transmitting of vital data indications to the receiver. Security and privacy is a major concern in terms of data sent from WBAN and biological sensors. Several algorithms have been proposed through many hypotheses in order to find optimum solutions. In this paper, an encrypting algorithm has been proposed via using hyper-chaotic Zhou system where it provides high security, privacy, efficiency and

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Steganography and Cryptography Techniques Based Secure Data Transferring Through Public Network Channel
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Attacking a transferred data over a network is frequently happened millions time a day. To address this problem, a secure scheme is proposed which is securing a transferred data over a network. The proposed scheme uses two techniques to guarantee a secure transferring for a message. The message is encrypted as a first step, and then it is hided in a video cover.  The proposed encrypting technique is RC4 stream cipher algorithm in order to increase the message's confidentiality, as well as improving the least significant bit embedding algorithm (LSB) by adding an additional layer of security. The improvement of the LSB method comes by replacing the adopted sequential selection by a random selection manner of the frames and the pixels wit

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Estimated the nanoparticles size of CdS from UV–Vis spectrum absorption by effective mass approximation model (EMA) using capping and complex agent
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Solving Nonlinear COVID-19 Mathematical Model Using a Reliable Numerical Method
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This research aims to numerically solve a nonlinear initial value problem presented as a system of ordinary differential equations. Our focus is on epidemiological systems in particular. The accurate numerical method that is the Runge-Kutta method of order four has been used to solve this problem that is represented in the epidemic model. The COVID-19 mathematical epidemic model in Iraq from 2020 to the next years is the application under study. Finally, the results obtained for the COVID-19 model have been discussed tabular and graphically. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can be observed via the behavior of the different stages of the model that approximates the behavior of actual the COVID-19 epidemic in Iraq. In our study, the COV

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination the Quantity of Extreme Rainfall and calculation of the Climatology Mean for Baghdad City
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Recently heavy rainfall that occurs in last decade for Baghdad city is part of climate changes effect on Iraq in general and Baghdad in particular. Rain is considered the main part in the water cycle as it enters mainly within the water system and water balance; therefore present study put of a special criterion to determine the amount of rainfall and analyzed in order to quantify the amount and the diagnosis of heavy rain. The availability of data by Iraqi Metrological  Organization  and Seismology (IMOS) for time period (1985/1986-2014/2015) held achieve the research objective .There are many statistical methods figure out  the difference to determine the amount of rain, Climatology mean  (C M) is one of them specia

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Neural Networks based Predictive Voltage-Tracking Controller Design for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Model
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In this work, a new development of predictive voltage-tracking control algorithm for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFCs) model, using a neural network technique based on-line auto-tuning intelligent algorithm was proposed. The aim of proposed robust feedback nonlinear neural predictive voltage controller is to find precisely and quickly the optimal hydrogen partial pressure action to control the stack terminal voltage of the (PEMFC) model for N-step ahead prediction. The Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO) implemented as a stable and robust on-line auto-tune algorithm to find the optimal weights for the proposed predictive neural network controller to improve system performance in terms of fast-tracking de

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
International Middle Eastern Simulation And Modelling Conference 2022, Mesm 2022,
MECHANICS OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURE REINFORCED WITH HYBRID NANO MATERIALS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
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Scopus
Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Simulation Study of Mass Transfer Coefficient in Slurry Bubble Column Reactor Using Neural Network
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The objective of this study was to develop neural network algorithm, (Multilayer Perceptron), based correlations for the prediction overall volumetric mass-transfer coefficient (kLa), in slurry bubble column for gas-liquid-solid systems. The Multilayer Perceptron is a novel technique based on the feature generation approach using back propagation neural network. Measurements of overall volumetric mass transfer coefficient were made with the air - Water, air - Glycerin and air - Alcohol systems as the liquid phase in bubble column of 0.15 m diameter. For operation with gas velocity in the range 0-20 cm/sec, the overall volumetric mass transfer coefficient was found to decrease w

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