Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Experiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le
... Show MoreVegetable sold oils (fat of the plant) were studied spectroscopy to determine its properties when it heating more than once, in this study the number of heating was 20 times and show the fat of the plant has been greatly affected by the heat. Aluminum and stainless steel were adopted for heating purposes. It turns out that the quality of the heating pot affects the spectrum specification. Changing the registered spectrum specifications for vegetable fat means a change in the characteristics of the same substance, which makes cooking use a second time with risks. Results were re-examined after six months showing significant risk of storage after heating to 300 oC the study proved that the structure of heating the vegetable oils changes an
... Show MoreIt is frequently asserted that an advantage of a binary search tree implementation of a set over linked list implementation is that for reasonably well balanced binary search trees the average search time (to discover whether or not a particular element is present in the set) is O(log N) to the base 2 where N is the number of element in the set (the size of the tree). This paper presents an experiment for measuring and comparing the obtained binary search tree time with the expected time (theoretical), this experiment proved the correctness of the hypothesis, the experiment is carried out using a program in turbo Pascal with recursion technique implementation and a statistical method to prove th
... Show MoreArtificial Neural Network (ANN) is widely used in many complex applications. Artificial neural network is a statistical intelligent technique resembling the characteristic of the human neural network. The prediction of time series from the important topics in statistical sciences to assist administrations in the planning and make the accurate decisions, so the aim of this study is to analysis the monthly hypertension in Kalar for the period (January 2011- June 2018) by applying an autoregressive –integrated- moving average model and artificial neural networks and choose the best and most efficient model for patients with hypertension in Kalar through the comparison between neural networks and Box- Je
... Show MoreThe goal of this paper is to expose a new numerical method for solving initial value time-lag of delay differential equations by employing a high order improving formula of Euler method known as third order Euler method. Stability condition is discussed in detail for the proposed technique. Finally some examples are illustrated to verify the validity, efficiency and accuracy of the method.
In this research, a simple experiment in the field of agriculture was studied, in terms of the effect of out-of-control noise as a result of several reasons, including the effect of environmental conditions on the observations of agricultural experiments, through the use of Discrete Wavelet transformation, specifically (The Coiflets transform of wavelength 1 to 2 and the Daubechies transform of wavelength 2 To 3) based on two levels of transform (J-4) and (J-5), and applying the hard threshold rules, soft and non-negative, and comparing the wavelet transformation methods using real data for an experiment with a size of 26 observations. The application was carried out through a program in the language of MATLAB. The researcher concluded that
... Show MoreFrequent data in weather records is essential for forecasting, numerical model development, and research, but data recording interruptions may occur for various reasons. So, this study aims to find a way to treat these missing data and know their accuracy by comparing them with the original data values. The mean method was used to treat daily and monthly missing temperature data. The results show that treating the monthly temperature data for the stations (Baghdad, Hilla, Basra, Nasiriya, and Samawa) in Iraq for all periods (1980-2020), the percentage for matching between the original and the treating values did not exceed (80%). So, the period was divided into four periods. It was noted that most of the congruence values increased, re
... Show More