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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Comparison between Rush Model Parameters to Completed and Lost Data by Different Methods of Processing Missing Data
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The current study aims to compare between the assessments of the Rush model’s parameters to the missing and completed data in various ways of processing the missing data. To achieve the aim of the present study, the researcher followed the following steps: preparing Philip Carter test for the spatial capacity which consists of (20) items on a group of (250) sixth scientific stage students in the directorates of Baghdad Education at Al–Rusafa (1st, 2nd and 3rd) for the academic year (2018-2019). Then, the researcher relied on a single-parameter model to analyze the data. The researcher used Bilog-mg3 model to check the hypotheses, data and match them with the model. In addition

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Inversion to density and velocity model by integrated with wells data at regional area (central and southwestern Iraq)
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A new derivative applied to the old gravity Bouguer map (served in 1940s and 1950s), taking regional study area covered the mid and south of Iraq. The gravity anomaly reflects a density contrast variation; therefore it is possible to use gravity inversion to the density and velocity model through layers (615m, 1100m, 1910m, 2750m and 5290m), the depth layers according to the power spectrum analysis of gravity Bouguer. The inversion is according to the integration of gravity anomalies of the each depth layer with the same depth of wells data, considered to the estimations and analysis of density and velocity scatters of the oil wells distribution with depth at the regional area. Taking the relation

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Subsurface 3D Prediction Porosity Model from Converted Seismic and Well Data Using Model Based Inversion Technique
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Seismic inversion technique is applied to 3D seismic data to predict porosity property for carbonate Yamama Formation (Early Cretaceous) in an area located in southern Iraq. A workflow is designed to guide the manual procedure of inversion process. The inversion use a Model Based Inversion technique to convert 3D seismic data into 3D acoustic impedance depending on low frequency model and well data is the first step in the inversion with statistical control for each inversion stage. Then, training the 3D acoustic impedance volume, seismic data and porosity wells data with multi attribute transforms to find the best statistical attribute that is suitable to invert the point direct measurement of porosity from well to 3D porosity distribut

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Statistical Sciences
Use the robust RFCH method with a polychoric correlation matrix in structural equation modeling When you are ordinal data
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
the periodic coincidence points of continuius maps and lindemann's
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this paper give a proof of known conditions for the existence of peridic conincidence points of continuius maps using lindemann theotem on transcendental numbers

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 29 2018
Journal Name
Construction Research Congress 2018
Validation of Time-Safety Influence Curve Using Empirical Safety and Injury Data—Poisson Regression
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Frequency analyses of human voice using fast Fourier transform
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Quantitative analysis of human voice has been subject of interest and the subject gained momentum when human voice was identified as a modality for human authentication and identification. The main organ responsible for production of sound is larynx and the structure of larynx along with its physical properties and modes of vibration determine the nature and quality of sound produced. There has been lot of work from the point of view of fundamental frequency of sound and its characteristics. With the introduction of additional applications of human voice interest grew in other characteristics of sound and possibility of extracting useful features from human voice. We conducted a study using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique to analy

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Subsurface Imaging of 2D Seismic Data Using Kirchhoff Time Migration Method, Central Iraq
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Kirchhoff Time Migration method was applied in pre-and post-Stack Time Migration for post-processing of images collected from Balad-Samarra (BS-92) survey line that is sited across Ajeel anticline oilfield. The results showed that Ajeel anticline structure was relocated at the correct position in the migrated stacked section. The two methods (Pre and Post) of migration processing showed enhanced subsurface images and increased horizontal resolution, which was clear after the broadening the syncline and narrowing or compressing the anticline. However, each of these methods was associated with migration noise. Thus, a Post-Stack process was applied using Dip-Removal (DDMED) and Band-Pass filters to eliminate the artifact noise. The time-fr

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
ESTIMATED NON-PARAMETRIC AND SEMI-PARAMETRIC MODEL FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA
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