Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Mersing is one of the places that have the potential for wind power development in Malaysia. Researchers often suggest it as an ideal place for generating electricity from wind power. However, before a location is chosen, several factors need to be considered. By analyzing the location ahead of time, resource waste can be avoided and maximum profitability to various parties can be realized. For this study, the focus is to identify the distribution of the wind speed of Mersing and to determine the optimal average of wind speed. This study is critical because the wind speed data for any region has its distribution. It changes daily and by season. Moreover, no determination has been made regarding selecting the average wind speed used for w
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other
... Show More: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier mod
... Show MoreAbstract Planetary nebulae (PN) represents the short phase in the life of stars with masses (0.89-7) M☉. Several physical processes taking place during the red giant phase of low and intermediates-mass stars. These processes include :1) The regular (early ) wind and the envelope ejection, 2) The thermal pulses during Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB ) phase. In this paper it is briefly discussed how such processes affect the mass range of Planetary Nebulae(PN) nuclei(core) and their evolution, and the PN life time, and fading time for the masses which adopted. The Synthetic model is adopted. The envelope mass of star (MeN ) and transition time (ttr) calculated respectively for the parameter (MeR =1.5,2, 3×10-3 M☉). Another time scale is o
... Show MoreA three-dimensional (3D) model extraction represents the best way to reflect the reality in all details. This explains the trends and tendency of many scientific disciplines towards making measurements, calculations and monitoring in various fields using such model. Although there are many ways to produce the 3D model like as images, integration techniques, and laser scanning, however, the quality of their products is not the same in terms of accuracy and detail. This article aims to assess the 3D point clouds model accuracy results from close range images and laser scan data based on Agi soft photoscan and cloud compare software to determine the compatibility of both datasets for several applications. College of Scien
... Show MoreEvaporation from water bodies is important and considered a major problem in dry and semi-dry regions, in this research the evaporation has been analyzed from two approaches: engineeringly and statistically. The engineering approach deals with the calculation of evaporation rates of Mosul Dam Lake. Three methods were used: pan evaporation class A, the combined and the mass-transfer. It was found that the values obtained by pan evaporation class A method was the highest among the other, while the mass transfer method achieved the lowest results. The evaporation rates during the year ranged according to the first method (0.9–5.5) mm/day, second (0.7–11.5) mm/day and the last method (1.0039×106) m3/year, whi
... Show MoreDetermination of the sites of geographical coordinates with high accuracy and in short time is very important in many applications, including: air and sea navigation, and in the uses geodetic surveys. Today, the Global Positioning System (GPS) plays an important role in performing this task. The datum used for GPS positioning is called World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84). It consists of a three-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system and an associated ellipsoid so that WGS84 positions describe coordinates as latitude, longitude and ellipsoid height (h) coordinates, with respect to the center of mass of the Earth This study develops a mathematical model for geomantic measurement correction for ellipsoidal heights (h) between two different
... Show MoreIraqi EFL teachers face problems in teaching “English for Iraq Series” for primary public school pupils. In this paper, the researchers are going to identify the main problems faced by our teachers and try to find solutions to these problems. To achieve the aim of the study, list of questions asked and from teachers’ responses, the researchers have got an idea about the main problems which are related to textbook material, parents, learners, environment and technology. Therefore, the researchers adapted a questionnaire to achieve the purpose of the study with some changes and modifications. This questionnaire with five point scale (strongly agree, agree, undecided, disagree, strongly disagree). To achieve face validity, the
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