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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modeling and Analysis of A Prey-Predator System Incorporating Fear, Predator-Dependent Refuge, with Cannibalism In Prey
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    The relationship between prey and predator populations is hypothesized and examined using a mathematical model. Predation fear, cannibalism among the prey population, and a refuge reliant on predators are predicted to occur. This study set out to look at the long-term behavior of the proposed model and the effects of its key elements. The solution properties of the model were investigated. All potential equilibrium points' existence and stability were looked at. The system's persistence requirements were established. What circumstances could lead to local bifurcation near equilibrium points was uncovered. Suitable Lyapunov functions are used to study the system's overall dynamics. Numerical simulations were conducted to verify the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Molecular diagnosis of Chlamydia trachomatis in infertile Iraqi women using Real time-PCR and comparison with other methods
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Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common of negative gram bacteria that cause sexually transmitted diseases. It affects the reproductive system in women, not the symptoms of the disease, but the most serious is the long-term effects of the reproductive system.. out of 100 women were attending different hospitals in Baghdad included the Gynaecology Departments of Women Health Center at Al-Elwyia Obstetrics Hospital . Ibn Al balady Maternity and Children's Hospital , Kamal al-Samarrai hospital Fertility Center infertility treatment and In Vitro Fertilization ( IVF ) (20 control and 80 women with infertility) DNA was extracted from the Endocervical Swabs of all infertili women, to investigate the bacteria by using Real time -PCR technique a

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant analysis using Principal Component unemployment data for the province of Baghdad
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     The objective of the study is to demonstrate the predictive ability is better between the logistic regression model and Linear Discriminant function using the original data first and then the Home vehicles to reduce the dimensions of the variables for data and socio-economic survey of the family to the province of Baghdad in 2012 and included a sample of 615 observation with 13 variable, 12 of them is an explanatory variable and the depended variable is number of workers and the unemployed.

     Was conducted to compare the two methods above and it became clear by comparing the  logistic regression model best of a Linear Discriminant  function written

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
8th Engineering And 2nd International Conference For College Of Engineering – University Of Baghdad: Coec8-2021 Proceedings
Finite element modeling of concavely curved soffit RC beams externally strengthened with FRP
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling of Mass Transfer Coefficient in Rotating Biological Contactor with Perforated Discs (RPBC)
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Abstract

 In order to make an improvement associated with rotating biological contactor (RBC), a new design of biofilm reactor called as Rotating perforated disc biological contactor (RPBC) was developed in which the rotating discs are perforated. The transfer of oxygen from air to wastewater was investigated. Mass-transfer coefficient (KLa)  in the liquid phase was determined by measuring  the rate transfer of oxygen.  A   laboratory scale of (RPBC) consisted of a semicircular trough was used with a working capacity of 40 liters capacity of liquid. Synthetic wastewater was used as a liquid phase, while air was used as a gas phase.

The effects of m

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Modeling sequential preparation with rheumatoid tonsils in Nineveh for the period 2004-2009
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Abstract
             In this research will be treated with a healthy phenomenon has a significant impact on different age groups in the community, but a phenomenon tonsillitis where they will be first Tawfiq model slope self moving averages seasonal ARMA Seasonal through systematic Xbox Cengnzla counter with rheumatoid tonsils in the city of Mosul, and for the period 2004-2009 with prediction of these numbers coming twelve months, has found that the specimen is the best representation of the data model is the phenomenon SARMA (1,1) * (2,1) 12  from the other side and explanatory variables using a maximum temperature and minimum temperature, sol

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Behavioral nonlinear modeling of prestressed concrete flexural members with internally unbonded steel strands
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Series Solutions of Delay Integral Equations via a Modified Approach of Homotopy Analysis Method
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In this paper, the series solutions of a non-linear delay integral equations are considered by a modified approach of homotopy analysis method (MAHAM). We split the function   into infinite sums. The outcomes of the illustrated examples are included to confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the MAHAM. The exact solution can be obtained using special values of the convergence parameter.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 13 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Study on the Bases of Space of Vector Valued Entire Multiple Dirichlet Series
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Let 


 
, 1
( )
1 2 ,
( , ) 1 2
m n
s s
m n
f s s a e m n   , (s   it , j 1,2) j j j  ,  
m 1  and
 
n 1  being an increasing sequences of positive numbers and a E m n  , where E
is Banach algebra, represent a vector valued entire Dirichlet functions in two
variables. The space  of all such entire functions having order at most equal to 
is considered in this paper. A metric topology using the growth parameters of f is
defined on  and its various properties are obtained. The form of linear operator on
the space  is characterized and proper bases are also characterized in terms of
growth parameters  .

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 28 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Content of Data Journalism in Security Topics - Security Media Cell Model Research extracted from a master’s thesis
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This paper aims at the analytical level to know the security topics that were used with data journalism, and the expression methods used in the statements of the Security Media Cell, as well as to identify the means of clarification used in data journalism. About the Security Media Cell, and the methods preferred by the public in presenting press releases, especially determining the strength of the respondents' attitude towards the data issued by the Security Media Cell. On the Security Media Cell, while the field study included the distribution of a questionnaire to the public of Baghdad Governorate. The study reached several results, the most important of which is the interest of the security media cell in presenting its data in differ

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