Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Ration power plants, to generate power, have become common worldwide. One such one is the steam power plant. In such plants, various moving parts of heavy machines generate a lot of noise. Operators are subjected to high levels of noise. High noise level exposure leads to psychological as well physiological problems; different kinds of ill effects. It results in deteriorated work efficiency, although the exact nature of work performance is still unknown. To predict work efficiency deterioration, neuro-fuzzy tools are being used in research. It has been established that a neuro-fuzzy computing system helps in identification and analysis of fuzzy models. The last decade has seen substantial growth in development of various neuro-fuzzy systems
... Show MoreThe bandwidth requirements of telecommunication network users increased rapidly during the last decades. Optical access technologies must provide the bandwidth demand for each user. The passive optical access networks (PONs) support a maximum data rate of 100 Gbps by using the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) technique in the optical access network. In this paper, the optical broadband access networks with many techniques from Time Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Networks (TDM PON) to Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex Passive Optical Networks (OFDM PON) are presented. The architectures, advantages, disadvantages, and main parameters of these optical access networks are discussed and reported which have many ad
... Show MoreAudio classification is the process to classify different audio types according to contents. It is implemented in a large variety of real world problems, all classification applications allowed the target subjects to be viewed as a specific type of audio and hence, there is a variety in the audio types and every type has to be treatedcarefully according to its significant properties.Feature extraction is an important process for audio classification. This workintroduces several sets of features according to the type, two types of audio (datasets) were studied. Two different features sets are proposed: (i) firstorder gradient feature vector, and (ii) Local roughness feature vector, the experimentsshowed that the results are competitive to
... Show MoreA field experiment is conducted to study the effect of different levels of peat (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 Mg ha-1 to uncropped and cropped soil to wheat. Soil samples are taken in different period of time (0, 3, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 180 days after cultivation to determine (NaHCO3-Exteractable P at 3 different depths (0-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm). Field Experiment is conducted in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four replicates. Wheat, Al-Rasheed variety, is cultivated as a testing crop. The entire field is equally dived in two divisions. One of the two divisions is cultivated to wheat and the second is left uncropped. The effect of five levels of peat namely 0, 25, 50, 75, 100 Mg ha-1 is investigated. Soils are fully analyzed
... Show MoreThis study includes the preparation of the ferrite nanoparticles CuxCe0.3-XNi0.7Fe2O4 (where: x = 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3) using the sol-gel (auto combustion) method, and citric acid was used as a fuel for combustion. The results of the tests conducted by X-ray diffraction (XRD), emitting-field scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX), and Vibration Sample Magnetic Device (VSM) showed that the compound has a face-centered cubic structure, and the lattice constant is increased with increasing Cu ion. On the other hand, the compound has apparent porosity and spherical particles, and t
... Show MoreDue to technological developments in the Iraqi banking sector, which is the use of electronic payment systems within the banking infrastructure. This has led to speed and accuracy in the completion of transactions, reduced costs, increased revenues and efficiency. This research examines the challenges and risks facing the Iraqi banking sector as a result of its use of electronic payment systems. And show its impact on the profitability of commercial banks. The research was based on the main hypothesis that there is a statistically significant moral impact relationship between electronic payment systems and the profitability of banks. Iraqi commercial banks were chosen as a research community, All Iraqi commercial banks that parti
... Show MoreThe aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor
... Show MoreAn evaluation for the performance of model pile embedded in expansive soil was investigated. An extensive testing program was planned to achieve the purpose of this research. Therefore, special manufactured system was prepared for studying the behavior of model pile having different length to diameter ratios (L/D). Two types of piles were used in this research, straight shaft and under reamed piles. The effect of model pile type, L/D ratio and number of wetting drying cycles were studied. It is observed that significant reductions in pile movement when under reamed piles were considered. A proposed design charts was presented for straight shaft and under reamed piles to estimate the length of both types of piles that is requi
... Show MoreThe Development of Semi – Empirical Relationship for the Determination of the Half –Lives of Even – Even Heavy Nuclei that Emit Alpha – Particles
The problem of independent motion control of mobile robot (МR) in conditions when unforeseen changes of conditions of interaction of wheels with a surface are considered. An example of such changes can be sudden entrance МR a slippery surface. The deployment of an autonomous unmanned ground vehicle for field applications provides the means by which the risk to personnel can be minimized and operational capabilities improved. In rough terrain, it is critical for mobile robots to maintain good wheel traction. Wheel slip could cause the rover to lose control and become trapped. This paper describes the application of fuzzy control to a feedback system within slippery environment. The study is conducted on an example of М
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