Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The aim of this investigation was to study the impact of various reaction parameters on wastewater taken from Al-Wathba water treatment plant on Tigris River in south of Baghdad, Iraq with sodium hypochlorite solution. The parameters studied were sodium hypochlorite dose, contact time, initial fecal coliform bacteria concentration, temperature, and pH. In a batch reactor, different concentrations of sodium hypochlorite solution were used to disinfect 1L of water. The amount of hypochlorite ions in disinfected water was measured using an Iodimetry test for different reaction times, whereas the Most Probable Number (MPN) test was used to determine the concentration of coliform bacteria. Total Plate Count (TPC) was utilized in this study to
... Show MoreIron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies. In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model coul
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate Religious Human Rights Violations. Religious liberty is essential for everyone, everywhere. Because religion is significant to everyone, everywhere. Humans are religious by nature. Our nature drives us to seek answers to deep questions about ultimate things. We cannot live a fully human life unless we are free to seek those answers and live according to the truths we discover. In this study, the researcher used Marsh and White model for analysis A sample of an offensive image of an Islamic concept from the book "Mohammad believes it or else." this book is a comic book written by pseudonym Abdullah Aziz and published by Crescent Moon Publishing company. The book is marked with anti- Mohammad, preju
... Show MoreBefore setting a turbine in a wind farms allocated for power generation, it must be know the appropriate turbine class for that site depending on the turbulence intensity of the winds in the studied area and the IEC-61400 standard. The importance of identifying a class of wind turbine is due to the complex environmental conditions that produce turbulent air which, in turn, may cause damage to the turbine blades and weakness in the performance. Therefore, the ambient turbulence intensity is a very important factor in determining the performance and productivity of the wind turbines.
In this research we calculate Turbulence Intensity "TI" in the province of Nasiriyah, south of Iraq (Lat. 31.052049 , Lon. 46.261021) for the years 2008, 2
In this paper we design a Simulink model which can be evaluate the concentration of Copper, Lead, Zinc, Cadmium, Cobalt, Nickel, Crum and Iron. So, this model would be a method to determine the contamination levels of these metals with the potential for this contamination sources with their impact. The aim of using Simulink environment is to solve differential equations individually and as given data in parallel with analytical mathematics trends. In general, mathematical models of the spread heavy metals in soil are modeled and solve to predict the behavior of the system under different conditions.
Water quality planning relies on Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOD. BOD testing takes five days. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is increasingly used for water resource forecasting. This work designed a PSO technique for estimating everyday BOD at Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment facility inlet. Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment plant provided 702 plant-scale data sets during 2012-2022. The PSO model uses the daily data of the water quality parameters, including chemical oxygen demand (COD), chloride (Cl-), suspended solid (SS), total dissolved solids (TDS), and pH, to determine how each variable affects the daily incoming BOD. PSO and multiple linear regression (MLR) findings are compared, and their perfor
... Show MoreRation power plants, to generate power, have become common worldwide. One such one is the steam power plant. In such plants, various moving parts of heavy machines generate a lot of noise. Operators are subjected to high levels of noise. High noise level exposure leads to psychological as well physiological problems; different kinds of ill effects. It results in deteriorated work efficiency, although the exact nature of work performance is still unknown. To predict work efficiency deterioration, neuro-fuzzy tools are being used in research. It has been established that a neuro-fuzzy computing system helps in identification and analysis of fuzzy models. The last decade has seen substantial growth in development of various neuro-fuzzy systems
... Show MoreThis study includes the preparation of the ferrite nanoparticles CuxCe0.3-XNi0.7Fe2O4 (where: x = 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3) using the sol-gel (auto combustion) method, and citric acid was used as a fuel for combustion. The results of the tests conducted by X-ray diffraction (XRD), emitting-field scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX), and Vibration Sample Magnetic Device (VSM) showed that the compound has a face-centered cubic structure, and the lattice constant is increased with increasing Cu ion. On the other hand, the compound has apparent porosity and spherical particles, and t
... Show MoreDue to technological developments in the Iraqi banking sector, which is the use of electronic payment systems within the banking infrastructure. This has led to speed and accuracy in the completion of transactions, reduced costs, increased revenues and efficiency. This research examines the challenges and risks facing the Iraqi banking sector as a result of its use of electronic payment systems. And show its impact on the profitability of commercial banks. The research was based on the main hypothesis that there is a statistically significant moral impact relationship between electronic payment systems and the profitability of banks. Iraqi commercial banks were chosen as a research community, All Iraqi commercial banks that parti
... Show MoreThe aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor
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