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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Cleaner Production
Modeling of biogas production and biodegradability of date palm fruit wastes with different moisture contents
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 06 2019
Journal Name
Mechanics Of Advanced Materials And Structures
Finite element modeling of RC gable roof beams with openings of different sizes and configurations
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Cleaner Production
Modeling of biogas production and biodegradability of date palm fruit wastes with different moisture contents
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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Bayesian Method in Classification Regression Tree to estimate nonparametric additive model compared with Logistic Model with Application
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The use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
An Efficient Method for Solving Coupled Time Fractional Nonlinear Evolution Equations with Conformable Fractional Derivatives
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In this article, an efficient reliable method, which is the residual power series method (RPSM), is used in order to investigate the approximate solutions of conformable time fractional nonlinear evolution equations with conformable derivatives under initial conditions. In particular, two types of equations are considered, which are time coupled diffusion-reaction equations (CD-REs) and MKdv equations coupled with conformable fractional time derivative of order α. The attitude of RPSM and the influence of different values of α are shown graphically.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 20 2024
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Solving the Multi-criteria, Total Completion Time, Total Earliness Time, and Maximum Tardiness Problem
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Machine scheduling problems (MSP) are     considered as one of the most important classes of combinatorial optimization problems. In this paper, the problem of job scheduling on a single machine is studied to minimize the multiobjective and multiobjective objective function. This objective function is: total completion time, total lead time and maximum tardiness time, respectively, which are formulated as  are formulated. In this study, a mathematical model is created to solve the research problem. This problem can be divided into several sub-problems and simple algorithms have been found to find the solutions to these sub-problems and compare them with efficient solutions. For this problem, some rules that provide efficient solutio

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 21 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Operational Research
Aggregate production planning of Abu Ghraib Dairy factories based on forecasting and goal programming
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting The Wet and Dry Rainy Seasons in Mosul Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
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Iraq suffers the continuing lack of water resources in generdwether it is surface or underearth water or rain. The study of rain has got the utmost importance in order to the rain direction in Iraq and in Mosul in particular and what it will be in future. It also shows the wet as well as the dry seasons and the possibility of expecting them and expecting their quantities in order to invest them and to keep this vital resource The research deals with predict the wet and dry rainy seasons in Mosul using (SPI) Standardized precipitation index extracted from conversion of Gamma distribution to standardized normal distribution , depending on data of monthly rain amounts for 1940-2013 . Results showed existence of 31 w

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Procedia
The relationship of Nuclear Decay Methods (alpha and beta) Particles with the Nuclear Deformation for Nuclei inUranium-238 and Thorium -232 Series
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