Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The accumulation of toxic elements in vegetables and melons grown in agriculture, Brassica rapa - turnip, Solanum lycopersicum - tomato, Citrullus lanatus - watermelon, Capsicum annuum - bell pepper, Daucus carota - carrots, Cucurbita pepo - pumpkin, Cucumis melo - melon, and also Prunus armeniaca - apricot from fruit trees were analyzed. The excess of maximum allowable concentrations in agricultural crops of the element As by 1.65-1.75, Cd - 1.6-2.3, Cr -1.2-2.35, Cu -1.6-3.3, Ni - 1.16-3.53, Pb - 1.54-3.08, Al - 1.36-3.5, Sb - 2.0-33, Se - 1.1-3.3 times was established. The maximum allowable concentration of mercury in vegetables and melons was equal to 0.02 mg/kg,
... Show MoreConvergence prop erties of Jackson polynomials have been considered by Zugmund
[1,ch.X] in (1959) and J.Szbados [2], (p =ï‚¥) while in (1983) V.A.Popov and J.Szabados [3]
(1 ï‚£p ï‚£ ï‚¥) have proved a direct inequality for Jackson polynomials in L
p-sp ace of 2ï°-periodic bounded Riemann integrable functions (f R) in terms of some modulus of
continuity .
In 1991 S.K.Jassim proved direct and inverse inequality for Jackson polynomials in
locally global norms (L
ï¤,p) of 2ï°-p eriodic bounded measurable functions (f Lï‚¥) in terms of
suitable Peetre K-functional [4].
Now the aim of our paper is to proved direct and inverse inequalities for Jackson
polynomials
Generally, statistical methods are used in various fields of science, especially in the research field, in which Statistical analysis is carried out by adopting several techniques, according to the nature of the study and its objectives. One of these techniques is building statistical models, which is done through regression models. This technique is considered one of the most important statistical methods for studying the relationship between a dependent variable, also called (the response variable) and the other variables, called covariate variables. This research describes the estimation of the partial linear regression model, as well as the estimation of the “missing at random” values (MAR). Regarding the
... Show MoreEverybody is connected with social media like (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram…etc.) that generate a large quantity of data and which traditional applications are inadequate to process. Social media are regarded as an important platform for sharing information, opinion, and knowledge of many subscribers. These basic media attribute Big data also to many issues, such as data collection, storage, moving, updating, reviewing, posting, scanning, visualization, Data protection, etc. To deal with all these problems, this is a need for an adequate system that not just prepares the details, but also provides meaningful analysis to take advantage of the difficult situations, relevant to business, proper decision, Health, social media, sc
... Show MoreThe development that solar energy will have in the next years needs a reliable estimation of available solar energy resources. Several empirical models have been developed to calculate global solar radiation using various parameters such as extraterrestrial radiation, sunshine hours, albedo, maximum temperature, mean temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, evaporation, total perceptible water, number of rainy days, and altitude and latitude. In present work i) First part has been calculated solar radiation from the daily values of the hours of sun duration using Angstrom model over the Iraq for at July 2017. The second part has been mapping the distribution of so
The measurement data of the raw water quality of Tigris River were statistically analyzed to measure the salinity value in relation to the selected raw water quality parameters. The analyzed data were collected from five water treatment plants (WTPs) assembled alongside of the Tigris River in Baghdad: Al-Karkh, Al-Karama, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda for the period from 2015 to 2021. The selected parameters are total dissolved solid (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature. The main objective of this research is to predicate a mathematical model using SPSS software to calculate the value of salinity along the river, in addition, the effect of electrical conductivi
Understanding sedimentation behavior and its transport capacity in the Tigris River is of significant importance owing to the detrimental consequences caused by it. This study investigates the sediment amounts transported along the reach of the Tigris River in Baghdad. The CCHE2D model which is a common tool developed by the National Center for Computational Hydrological Science and Engineering (NCCHE) was applied to investigate the flow pattern and sediment amounts within 7 km reach. The model was initially calibrated and validated under steady-state conditions at the Sarai gauging station (upstream) and its performance was evaluated around the Abu Nawas water treatment plant (downstream). The result shows that the water surfac
... Show Morein this paper the collocation method will be solve ordinary differential equations of retarted arguments also some examples are presented in order to illustrate this approach
Dialogue is one of the pillars of character building in the television series, through which it is possible to identify the most important characteristics and traits of the personality, in addition to its ability to reveal the most important problems at all levels. The following: (How does dialogue contribute to enhancing the traits of the alienated personality?). It therefore aims to identify the effectiveness of the dramatic dialogue in enhancing the traits of the alienated personality represented by (powerlessness, isolation, meaninglessness, objectification, non-standardization and rebellion). (The traits of the alienated character, and the second is the psychological function of the dramatic dialogue), to extract from them the main
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