Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company. The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system. This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system. We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator. We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after it checked by the
... Show MoreThe communication networks (mobile phone networks, social media platforms) produce digital traces from their usages. This type of information help to understand and analyze the human mobility in very accurate way. By these analyzes over cities, it can give powerful data on daily citizen activities, urban planners have in that way, relevant indications for decision making on design and development. As well as, the Call detail Records (CDRs) provides valuable spatiotemporal data at the level of citywide or even nationwide. The CDRs could be analyzed to extract the life patterns and individuals mobility in an observed urban area and during ephemeral events. Whereas, their analysis gives conceptual views about human density and mobility pattern
... Show MoreFor the duration of the last few many years many improvement in computer technology, software program programming and application production had been followed with the aid of diverse engineering disciplines. Those trends are on the whole focusing on synthetic intelligence strategies. Therefore, a number of definitions are supplied, which recognition at the concept of artificial intelligence from exclusive viewpoints. This paper shows current applications of artificial intelligence (AI) that facilitate cost management in civil engineering tasks. An evaluation of the artificial intelligence in its precise partial branches is supplied. These branches or strategies contributed to the creation of a sizable group of fashions s
... Show MoreThe Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreIn this paper, the time-fractional Fisher’s equation (TFFE) is considered to exam the analytical solution using the Laplace q-Homotopy analysis method (Lq-HAM)â€. The Lq-HAM is a combined form of q-homotopy analysis method (q-HAM) and Laplace transform. The aim of utilizing the Laplace transform is to outdo the shortage that is mainly caused by unfulfilled conditions in the other analytical methods. The results show that the analytical solution converges very rapidly to the exact solution.
An in-depth experimental study of the matrix effect of antifreeze (ethylene glycol) and water contamination of engine oil through FT-IR spectroscopy. With a comparison of the percent by volume concentration of contaminated fresh 15W-40 engine oil, there appeared to be a noticeable reduction in the O–H stretching signal in the infrared spectrum when ethylene glycol based antifreeze was included as a contaminant. The contaminants of distilled water, a 50/50 mixture of water and commercial ethylene glycol antifreeze, and straight ethylene glycol antifreeze were compared and a signal reduction in the O–H stretch was clearly evident when glycol was present. Doubling the volume of the 50/50 mixture as compared to water alone still res
... Show MoreMany purposes require communicating audio files between the users using different applications of social media. The security level of these applications is limited; at the same time many audio files are secured and must be accessed by authorized persons only, while, most present works attempt to hide single audio file in certain cover media. In this paper, a new approach of hiding three audio signals with unequal sizes in single color digital image has been proposed using the frequencies transform of this image. In the proposed approach, the Fast Fourier Transform was adopted where each audio signal is embedded in specific region with high frequencies in the frequency spectrum of the cover image to sa
... Show MoreChemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi
... Show MoreIn this paper, ARIMA model was used for Estimating the missing data(air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) for mean monthly variables in different time series at three stations (Sinjar, Baghdad , AL.Hai) which represented different parts of Iraq from north to south respectively
The main objective and primary concern to every investor not only to achieve a greater return on his or her investments, but also to create the largest possible value of these investments the, researchers and those interested in the field of investment and financial analysis try to develop standards for performance valuation is guided through the  
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