Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
n this paper, we formulate three mathematical models using spline functions, such as linear, quadratic and cubic functions to approximate the mathematical model for incoming water to some dams. We will implement this model on dams of both rivers; dams on the Tigris are Mosul and Amara while dams on the Euphrates are Hadetha and Al-Hindya.
The first chapter the importance of research and need for education scientists see that the roots of the use of a specimen Wheatley in learning and teaching back to Grayson Wheatley, one of the largest supporters of a modern construction, which lay the groundwork for the specimen stage and the form in which it is. That was attributed to him, often called his name called while some educators based learning strategy on the issue. He sees the learner in this model make him a meaningful understanding of problems during his progress, thereby acting with his colleagues to find solutions to them in small groups. He
Borders Search: Search by students is determined by th
... Show MoreThis paper investigates a new approach to the rapid control of an upper limb exoskeleton actuator. We used a mathematical model and motion measurements of a human arm to estimate joint torque as a means to control the exoskeleton’s actuator. The proposed arm model is based on a two-pendulum configuration and is used to obtain instantaneous joint torques which are then passed into control law to regulate the actuator torque. Nine subjects volunteered to take part in the experimental protocol, in which inertial measurement units (IMUs) and a digital goniometer were used to measure and estimate the torque profiles. To validate the control law, a Simscape model was developed to simulate the arm model and control law in which measurem
... Show MoreThis paper aimed to investigate the effect of the height-to-length ratio of unreinforced masonry (URM) walls when loaded by a vertical load. The finite element (FE) method was implemented for modeling and analysis of URM wall. In this paper, ABAQUS, FE software with implicit solver was used to model and analysis URM walls subjected to a vertical load. In order to ensure the validity of Detailed Micro Model (DMM) in predicting the behavior of URM walls under vertical load, the results of the proposed model are compared with experimental results. Load-displacement relationship of the proposed numerical model is found of a good agreement with that of the published experimental results. Evidence shows that load-displacement curve obtained fro
... Show MoreIn this paper, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to compare the robust circular S estimator with the circular Least squares method in the case of no outlier data and in the case of the presence of an outlier in the data through two trends, the first is contaminant with high inflection points that represents contaminant in the circular independent variable, and the second the contaminant in the vertical variable that represents the circular dependent variable using three comparison criteria, the median standard error (Median SE), the median of the mean squares of error (Median MSE), and the median of the mean cosines of the circular residuals (Median A(k)). It was concluded that the method of least squares is better than the
... Show MoreThe phenomenon of poverty is one of the most important phenomena facing the world at large. Despite the tremendous technological progress witnessed by mankind and despite the unprecedented high levels of world economic production, poverty remains the greatest challenge facing the world. Statistics and studies have shown that poverty is caused by several problems: (health, social, economic, educational, etc.) These problems are obstacles to the ability to obtain employment opportunities, which leads in the beginning to the growth phenomenon of unemployment, and ultimately to the growth of poverty.
The results of a range of research in the field of psychology have confirmed that children from poor homes suffer from a high level of
... Show MoreFiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).
It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha
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