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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 08 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of dynamic lactic training according to the target time fo developing special endurance, lactic acid concentration, and achievement for 800m runners under20 years old
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Roleof Time Management in Stages Claims Settlement of Insurance from Fire: Research Exploratory in General Iraqi Insurance Company and Private Al hamra Company for Insurance
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The insurance activity in the various countries of the world are important indicators of the strength of the country's economy, he came to study the stages compensation insurance settlement against fire and the importance of investing time risk in achieving the payment of compensation speed, and the implications for the continuation of the insured to carry out insurance with the insurance company, whether working within the public sector or the private sector. Hence the research problem in how quickly insurance companies to pay compensation as soon as possible and the return of the insured to carry out its work and make up for what he died from loss. Intentional sample was selected from branches and divisions and Their assistants manager

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Suggested Model to Audit the Health Institutions to Achieve Sustainable Development: Suggested Model to Audit the Health Institutions to Achieve Sustainable Development
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Sustainable development is longer that meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs as it seeks to harmonize economic, social, Why research aims to check the availability of a proposed program takes into account the evidence and scrutiny of financial commitment and performance audit in accordance with the dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental, social and institutional) to measure the extent of the province on the needs of current and future generations, The problem with research that there is no audit program ensures the audit of financial statements, commitment and performance of health services in order to achieve sustainable development

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Multiple and Coherent Noise Removal from X-Profile 2D Seismic Data of Southern Iraq Using Common Depth Point Muting Procedures and Depending on Madagascar Open-Source Package
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This article describes how to predict different types of multiple reflections in pre-track seismic data. The characteristics of multiple reflections can be expressed as a combination of the characteristics of primary reflections. Multiple velocities always come in lower magnitude than the primaries, this is the base for separating them during Normal Move Out correction. The muting procedure is applied in Time-Velocity analysis domain. Semblance plot is used to diagnose multiples availability and judgment for muting dimensions. This processing procedure is used to eliminate internal multiples from real 2D seismic data from southern Iraq in two stages. The first is conventional Normal Move Out correction and velocity auto picking and

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Statistical Fluctuations of Energy Spectrum, Electromagnetic Transitions and Electromagnetic Moments in 136Xe Nucleus Using the Framework of Nuclear Shell Model
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The fluctuation properties of energy spectrum, electromagnetic transition intensities and electromagnetic moments in nucleus are investigated with realistic shell model calculations. We find that the spectral fluctuations of are consistent with the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. Besides, we observe a transition from an order to chaos when the excitation energy is increased and a clear quantum signature of the breaking of chaoticity when the single-particle energies are increased. The distributions of the transition intensities and of the electromagnetic moments are well described by a Porter-Thomas distribution. The statistics of electromagnetic transition intensities clearly deviate from a Porter-Thomas distribution (i

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Levels of Credibility of the Press within the Structural Model of Credibility
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There is confusion between the concept of honesty and credibility arguing that their meaning is the same. ‘Credibility; is derived from the truth which means evidence of honesty, while ‘honesty’ means not lying and matching reality. The study of credibility begins globally at the end of the fifties of the second millennium to see the decline and refrain from reading newspapers, while it was studied in the Arab world in 1987. Global studies find several meanings of the concept of ‘credibility’ such as accuracy, completeness, transfer facts, impartiality, balance, justice, objectivity, trust, honesty, respect the freedom of individuals and community, and taking into account the traditions and norms.
Credibility has two dimens

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Effects of Different Concentrations of Melatonin on the Time-course of Nitrite–induced Oxidation of Hemoglobin: In vitro Study
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         Melatonin is a potent scavenger of reactive oxygen species or free radicals like superoxide and hydroxyl radicals. The oxidation of hemoglobin to methemoglobin (meth-Hb) by oxidizing compounds has been widely studied. The present work was designed to evaluate the ability of different concentrations of melatonin to inhibit nitrite–induced oxidation of hemoglobin. Blood samples were obtained from apparently healthy individuals from which erythrocyte hemolysate was prepared. Different concentrations of melatonin (10-9-1.0 mg/ml) were incubated for 10 min with the hemolysate, then to the resultant mixture 1 ml of sodium nitrite (final concentration 0.6 mM) was added, and the

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Real Time <i>in Situ</i> Remote Monitoring for Cladding Modified SMF Integrating Nanocomposite Based Ammonia Sensors Deploying EDFA
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 21 2023
Journal Name
Mathematical Modelling Of Engineering Problems
Recovering Time-Dependent Coefficients in a Two-Dimensional Parabolic Equation Using Nonlocal Overspecified Conditions via ADE Finite Difference Schemes
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