Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This study is to investigate the possibility of using activated carbon prepared from Iraqi date-pits (ADP) which are produced from palm trees (Phoenix dactylifera L.) as low-cost reactive material in the permeable reactive barrier (PRB) for treating lead (Pb<sup>+2</sup>) from the contaminated groundwater, and then compare the results experimentally with other common reactive materials such as commercial activated carbon (CAC), zeolite pellets (ZP). Factors influencing sorption such as contact time, initial pH of the solution, sorbent dosage, agitation speed, and initial lead concentration has been studied. Two isotherm models were used for the description of sorption data (Langmuir and Freundlich). The maximum lead sorp
... Show MoreIn this study, a mathematical model for the kinetics of solute transport in liquid membrane systems (LMSs) has been formulated. This model merged the mechanisms of consecutive and reversible processes with a “semi-derived” diffusion expression, resulting in equations that describe solute concentrations in the three sections (donor, acceptor and membrane). These equations have been refined into linear forms, which are satisfying in the special conditions for simplification obtaining the important kinetic constants of the process experimentally.
In the present article, we implement the new iterative method proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari (NIM) [V. Daftardar-Gejji, H. Jafari, An iterative method for solving nonlinear functional equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 316 (2006) 753-763] to solve two problems; the first one is the problem of spread of a non-fatal disease in a population which is assumed to have constant size over the period of the epidemic, and the other one is the problem of the prey and predator. The results demonstrate that the method has many merits such as being derivative-free, overcome the difficulty arising in calculating Adomian polynomials to handle the nonlinear terms in Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM), does not require to calculate Lagrange multiplier a
... Show MoreThis model is an extension to H.M.M.S and related developments models of a single product. These models will be converted to deal with Multiproduct for productive company. This model executed by computer programming technique to maximize profits
Abstract
Objective / Purpose: Online social relationships through the emergence of Web 2.0 applications have become a new trend for researchers to study the behavior of consumers to shop online, as well as social networking sites are technologies that opened up opportunities for new business models. Therefore, a new trend has emerged, called social trade technology. In order to understand the behavioral intentions of the beneficiaries to adopt the technology of social trade, the current research aims at developing an electronic readiness framework and UTAUT model to understand the beneficiary's adoption of social trade technology.
Design/ methodology/ Approach: To achieve the obje
... Show MoreIncludes search unemployment concept ... types, graduate unemployment a model introduction to the researcher tackled the problem of unemployment being dangerous to the community, it's also growing in size year after year is a waste of a clear human capabilities, also addressed the importance of the research being a touch on the problem of unemployment and its concept and try to find solutions to them , and then came the goals set by the search researcher identifies unemployment and their causes and consequences and to provide a true picture of the situation of unemployed graduates and disclosure about how they treat their graduates for jobs provide him with a decent life problem. And adopted a researcher on the use of a questionnaire add
... Show Moreالخلاصة
اهتم الفكر السياسي في القرنين الاخيرين بدراسة الطبقات على نحو غير مسبوق, واصبح موضوع التحليل الطبقي المعني بالطبقات من حيث تعريفها, وتحديد موقعها في السلم الاجتماعي, فضلاً عن نوعية العلاقة بين شرائحها وفئاتها المختلفة من حيث الصراع والتناغم, المادة الرئيسة والموضوع الاكثر اهمية في دراسات الفكر السياسي والاجتماعي.ومن بين الطبقات, احتلت الطبقة الوسطى مكا
... Show MoreThe compound [K1] was synthesized from the reaction of dichloromethane with linear alkyl benzene (Lab9) using ethanol as a solvent, and from(chloro methyl)-4-nonylbenzene) [K1] it was possible to synthesize the compound Z(4-(nonan-3-yl)phenyl) methane amine) [K2] containing the amine group by synthesized from [K2] reaction with appropriate phenolic aldehydes and using Ethanol as a solvent in the preparation of vinyl chloride4-(((4-nonylbenzyl)imino)methyl)phenol-4-(((4-nonylbenzyl)imino methyl)benzene-1,3diol) [K3-K4] bases has been used. Preparation of a number of Phenolic polymers4-(2- hydroxy-3.5-dimethylbenzyl)-2-methyl-6-(((4-4-(2hyroxy-3, 5-dimethylbenzyl)-2-methyl-6(((4 nonylbenzyl) imino) methyl) benzene-phenolnonylbenzyl) imino) me
... Show MoreABSTRACT Background: This study measured the effects of three parameters pH value, length of immersion and type of archwire on metal ions released from orthodontic appliances. Materials and Methods: Ninety maxillary halves simulated fixed orthodontic appliances that were immersed in artificial saliva of different pH values (6.75, 5 and 3.5) during 28 day period. Three types of archwires were used: stainless steel, nickel titanium and thermal activated nickel titanium. The quantity of nickel and chromium ions was determined with the use of atomic force spectrophotometer while iron ions by spectrophotometer. Each orthodontic set was weighted two times, before the ligation and immersion in the artificial saliva and after 28 days at the end of
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