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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 29 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Bulk of Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) Acceleration as Seen From the Intensity-Time Profile
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In this work 27 events have been chosen for the period from (17 Feb 2000 to 10 Sep 2014) to analyze their intensity profile and find out what is the most effective reason behind the bulk of the accelerated SEPs as seen in the interval from the onset to the maximum intensity. It was found that the parameters of the associated eruptions (CME and solar flare) could play a major role in this acceleration. We considered some of these parameters such as: flare class related to soft X-ray flux, CME's speed and acceleration, site of the eruption (western, eastern) and particle transport in the IP medium. The shape of the profile showed a clear changing in ΔT1 (time from onset to maximum), as an inverse relation with the acceleration of coronal

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 24 2024
Journal Name
Mathematics
Identification of Time-Wise Thermal Diffusivity, Advection Velocity on the Free-Boundary Inverse Coefficient Problem
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This paper is concerned with finding solutions to free-boundary inverse coefficient problems. Mathematically, we handle a one-dimensional non-homogeneous heat equation subject to initial and boundary conditions as well as non-localized integral observations of zeroth and first-order heat momentum. The direct problem is solved for the temperature distribution and the non-localized integral measurements using the Crank–Nicolson finite difference method. The inverse problem is solved by simultaneously finding the temperature distribution, the time-dependent free-boundary function indicating the location of the moving interface, and the time-wise thermal diffusivity or advection velocities. We reformulate the inverse problem as a non-

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Real-Time Cloth Simulation on Virtual Human Character Using Enhanced Position Based Dynamic Framework Technique
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     Cloth simulation and animation has been the topic of research since the mid-80's in the field of computer graphics. Enforcing incompressible is very important in real time simulation. Although, there are great achievements in this regard, it still suffers from unnecessary time consumption in certain steps that is common in real time applications.   This research develops a real-time cloth simulator for a virtual human character (VHC) with wearable clothing. This research achieves success in cloth simulation on the VHC through enhancing the position-based dynamics (PBD) framework by computing a series of positional constraints which implement constant densities. Also, the self-collision and collision wit

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Tasks of the Intermediate Schoolmasters in Reference to Time Administration according to Headmaster’s Viewpoint
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The aim of this research is to recognize the tasks undertaken by   the   headmasters   of   intermediate   schools   concerning   time- administration,   in   accordance   to   the   viewpoints   of   the headmasters   of   intermediate   schools   in   the   Administration   of Education   of   Al-Karkh   the   Third.   The   sample   of   this   research consists   of   (60)   headmasters   and &n

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 29 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A New Mixed Nonpolynomial Spline Method for the Numerical Solutions of Time Fractional Bioheat Equation
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In this paper, a numerical approximation for a time fractional one-dimensional bioheat equation (transfer paradigm) of temperature distribution in tissues is introduced. It deals with the Caputo fractional derivative with order for time fractional derivative and new mixed nonpolynomial spline for second order of space derivative. We also analyzed the convergence and stability by employing Von Neumann method for the present scheme.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Enhancing the Accuracy of Health Care Internet of Medical Things in Real Time using CNNets
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     This paper presents an efficient system using a deep learning algorithm that recognizes daily activities and investigates the worst falling cases to save elders during daily life. This system is a physical activity recognition system based on the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) and uses convolutional neural networks (CNNets) that learn features and classifiers automatically. The test data include the elderly who live alone. The performance of CNNets is compared against that of state-of-the-art methods, such as activity windowing, fixed sample windowing, time-weighted windowing, mutual information windowing, dynamic windowing, fixed time windowing, sequence prediction algorithm, and conditional random fields. Th

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal On Interactive Design And Manufacturing (ijidem)
A real-time automated sorting of robotic vision system based on the interactive design approach
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Neotectonics of Al-Thirthar, Al-Habbaniya , Al-Razzazah Depressions, Central Iraq, by using Remote Sensing Data.
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The object of this research is to reveal the neotectonics of Al-Thirthar, Al-Habbaniya, and Al-Razzazah depressions by using remote sensing data. The age of the exposed rocks ranges from Early Miocene to Holocene. The depressions represent the west margin of the Mesopotamia Zone along its boundary with Al-Salman Zone. The lineament map contains three major groups of lineaments. Two of them are trending east-west and northeast-southwest parallel to the transversal fault systems of Iraq territory. The third group is trending northwest-southeast. The lineament groups reveal the tectonic and structural effects to the extension and the shape of the depressions. The intersection of the lineaments divided the area into small fragments which con

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
The American Journal Of Management And Economics Innovations
THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS IN MANAGING MEDIUM AND SMALL COMPANIES TO MAKE STRATEGIC DECISIONS AND IMPROVE PERFORMANCE: AN ANALYTICAL STUDY
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Economic analysis plays a pivotal role in managerial decision-making processes. This analysis is predicated on deeply understanding economic forces and market factors influencing corporate strategies and decisions. This paper delves into the role of economic data analysis in managing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to make strategic decisions and enhance performance. The study underscores the significance of this approach and its impact on corporate outcomes. The research analyzes annual reports from three companies: Al-Mahfaza for Mobile and Internet Financial Payment and Settlement Services Company Limited, Al-Arab for Electronic Payment Company, and Iraq Electronic Gateway for Financial Services Company. The paper concl

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Jurassic and Deep Structures Inferred from Gravity Data Depending on Stripping Technique for The Uppermost Layers in Central and Southern Iraq
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      The gravity anomalies of the Jurassic and deep structures were obtained by stripping the gravity effect of Cretaceous and Tertiary formations from the available Bouguer gravity map in central and south Iraq. The gravity effect of the stripped layers was determined depending on the density log or the density density obtained from the sonic log. The density relation with the seismic velocity of Gardner et al (1974) was used to obtain density from sonic logs in case of a lack of density log. The average density of the Cretaceous and Tertiary formation were determined then the density contrast of these formations was obtained. The density contrast and thickness of all stratigraphic formations in the area between the sea level to t

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