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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
REVIEW THE ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF LOST TIME INJURIES IN AN INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM BY USING AN EXPLANATORY PROGRAM
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Health and safety problem can be described by statistics it can only be understood by knowing and feeling the pain, suffering, and depression. Health and safety has a legal responsibility to protect it for everyone who can affect in the workplace. This includes manufacturers, suppliers, designers and controllers of work places and employees. Work injury is one of the major problems in manufacturing and production systems industries; it is reduced production efficiency and affects the cost. To gain flexibility from a traditional manufacturing system and production efficiency, this paper is about the application of estimating technology to preview and synthesis of Lost Time of Work Injuries in industry systems aims to provide a safe workin

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Investigation of density and form factor of some F isotopes using Hartree-Fock and shell model calculations
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Structure of unstable 21,23,25,26F nuclei have been investigated
using Hartree – Fock (HF) and shell model calculations. The ground
state proton, neutron and matter density distributions, root mean
square (rms) radii and neutron skin thickness of these isotopes are
studied. Shell model calculations are performed using SDBA
interaction. In HF method the selected effective nuclear interactions,
namely the Skyrme parameterizations SLy4, Skeσ, SkBsk9 and
Skxs25 are used. Also, the elastic electron scattering form factors of
these isotopes are studied. The calculated form factors in HF
calculations show many diffraction minima in contrary to shell
model, which predicts less diffraction minima. The long tail

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Heliyon
The influence of pulse duration and exposure time of Er,Cr:YSGG laser on lithium disilicate laminate debonding, an in vitro study
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of contact time between alginate impression material and type III dental stone on the surface properties of stone casts
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Background: Alginate impression material is the irreversible hydrocolloid material that is widely used in dentistry. The contact time between alginate and gypsum cast could have a detrimental effect on the properties of the gypsum cast. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of various contact time intervals of Alginate impressions & type III dental stone on surface properties of stone cast. Materials and Methods: Time intervals tested were 1hour, 6 hours and 9 hours. Surface properties of stone cast evaluated were surface detail reproduction, hardness and roughness. Surface detail reproduction was determined using cylindrical brass test block in accordance with ISO 1563. Surface roughness was measured by profilometer

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2017
Journal Name
International Communications In Heat And Mass Transfer
Optimization, modeling and accurate prediction of thermal conductivity and dynamic viscosity of stabilized ethylene glycol and water mixture Al 2 O 3 nanofluids by NSGA-II using ANN
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In this study, multi-objective optimization of nanofluid aluminum oxide in a mixture of water and ethylene glycol (40:60) is studied. In order to reduce viscosity and increase thermal conductivity of nanofluids, NSGA-II algorithm is used to alter the temperature and volume fraction of nanoparticles. Neural network modeling of experimental data is used to obtain the values of viscosity and thermal conductivity on temperature and volume fraction of nanoparticles. In order to evaluate the optimization objective functions, neural network optimization is connected to NSGA-II algorithm and at any time assessment of the fitness function, the neural network model is called. Finally, Pareto Front and the corresponding optimum points are provided and

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposed model for the work of audit committees in the public sector and its interaction with the Federal Board of Supreme Audit to reduce the incidents of fraud
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This growing interest of the international scientific specialized commissions is due to the role that the audit committee can play, as one of companies’ governance tools, to increase the accuracy and transparency of the financial information disclosed by the companies, through its oversight role on the process of preparing financial reports, its supervision on the internal audit function within the companies, and supporting its independency, as well as coordinating the efforts between the internal control unites and the external auditor represented by the (Board of Supreme Audit) to clear the observations and irregularities in order to reduce the fraud cases.

This research was built on an applied sample of audit committee works

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
2013 Ieee International Conference On Circuits And Systems (iccas)
Improved undetected error probability model for JTEC and JTEC-SQED coding schemes
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The undetected error probability is an important measure to assess the communication reliability provided by any error coding scheme. Two error coding schemes namely, Joint crosstalk avoidance and Triple Error Correction (JTEC) and JTEC with Simultaneous Quadruple Error Detection (JTEC-SQED), provide both crosstalk reduction and multi-bit error correction/detection features. The available undetected error probability model yields an upper bound value which does not give accurate estimation on the reliability provided. This paper presents an improved mathematical model to estimate the undetected error probability of these two joint coding schemes. According to the decoding algorithm the errors are classified into patterns and their decoding

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Apply the gravity model for trips between Najaf center and its settlements
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The study showed flow rates and the interaction between the settlements served by applying the model of gravity theory to measure depending on the number of the population between city Najaf and the rest of the other settlements served and using three functions of disability, time and cost, as recorded an increase in the interaction index with some settlements like them Kufa, Abbasid and Manathira, while the indicator contrast was in other settlements, either when the application of the gravity model depending on trips and socio-economic characteristics accuracy rate was more pronounced.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of HF and HCl Chemical Laser Parameters by using Mathematical Model
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A simplified theoretical comparison of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) chemical lasers is presented by using computer program. The program is able to predict quantitative variations of the laser characteristics as a function of rotational and vibrational quantum number. Lasing is assumed to occur in a Fabry-Perot cavity on vibration-rotation transitions between two vibrational levels of hypothetical diatomic molecule. This study include a comprehensive parametric analysis that indicates that the large rotational constant of HF laser in comparison with HCl laser makes it relatively easy to satisfy the partial inversion criterion. The results of this computer program proved their credibility when compared with th

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Medical evidence in matters of proof between Sharia and law: A model
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Praise be to God, prayer, and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and his God and his companions. The field of the judiciary to prove or invalidate some cases in the field of proof of descent and attachment to the plaintiff or exile, and other legal and judicial issues, especially in this era where the spread of previously unknown evidence, such as DNA, which was discovered in 1953, and the genetic fingerprint discovered 1984, blood analysis and a Saliva, sweat, poetry, etc. in the field of forensic evidence, in forensic medicine or medical expertise, it can be used to identify the killer, or verify his identity, using all the evidence in the scene, such as a point of blood or sweat, and the like So, as well as to prove the lineage is u

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