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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Thu May 10 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Securing Data in Wireless Body Area Network Using Hyper-Chaotic Zhou System
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  E-Health care system is one of the great technology enhancements via using medical devices through sensors worn or implanted in the patient's body. Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) offers astonishing help through wireless transmission of patient's data using agreed distance in which it keeps patient's status always controlled by regular transmitting of vital data indications to the receiver. Security and privacy is a major concern in terms of data sent from WBAN and biological sensors. Several algorithms have been proposed through many hypotheses in order to find optimum solutions. In this paper, an encrypting algorithm has been proposed via using hyper-chaotic Zhou system where it provides high security, privacy, efficiency and

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Publication Date
Mon May 22 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Evaluation of The Nuclear Data on(α,n)Reaction for Natural Molybdenum
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The cross section evaluation for (α,n) reaction was calculated according to the available International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other experimental published data . These cross section are the most recent data , while the well known international libraries like ENDF , JENDL , JEFF , etc.   We considered an energy range from threshold to 25 MeV in interval (1 MeV).   The average weighted cross sections for all available experimental and theoretical(JENDL) data and for all the considered isotopes was calculated . The cross section of the element is then calculated according to the cross sections of the isotopes of that element taking into account their abundance . A mathematical representative equation for eac

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Proposed Approach for Analysing General Hygiene Information Using Various Data Mining Algorithms
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General medical fields and computer science usually conjugate together to produce impressive results in both fields using applications, programs and algorithms provided by Data mining field. The present research's title contains the term hygiene which may be described as the principle of maintaining cleanliness of the external body. Whilst the environmental hygienic hazards can present themselves in various media shapes e.g. air, water, soil…etc. The influence they can exert on our health is very complex and may be modulated by our genetic makeup, psychological factors and by our perceptions of the risks that they present. Our main concern in this research is not to improve general health, rather than to propose a data mining approach

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Investigating the quality of open street map roads data inside Baghdad city
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 21 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Computer Science And Mathematics
Fuzzy C means Based Evaluation Algorithms For Cancer Gene Expression Data Clustering
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The influx of data in bioinformatics is primarily in the form of DNA, RNA, and protein sequences. This condition places a significant burden on scientists and computers. Some genomics studies depend on clustering techniques to group similarly expressed genes into one cluster. Clustering is a type of unsupervised learning that can be used to divide unknown cluster data into clusters. The k-means and fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithms are examples of algorithms that can be used for clustering. Consequently, clustering is a common approach that divides an input space into several homogeneous zones; it can be achieved using a variety of algorithms. This study used three models to cluster a brain tumor dataset. The first model uses FCM, whic

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2010
Journal Name
Ibn Al- Haitham J. Fo R Pure & Appl. Sci
Evaluation of The Nuclear Data on(α,n)Reaction for Natural Molybdenum
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The cross section evaluation for (α,n) reaction was calculated according to the available International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other experimental published data . These cross section are the most recent data , while the well known international libraries like ENDF , JENDL , JEFF , etc. We considered an energy range from threshold to 25 M eV in interval (1 MeV). The average weighted cross sections for all available experimental and theoretical(JENDL) data and for all the considered isotopes was calculated . The cross section of the element is then calculated according to the cross sections of the isotopes of that element taking into account their abundance . A mathematical representative equation for each of the element

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 06 2022
Journal Name
Kuwait Journal Of Science
AVO analysis for high amplitude anomalies using 2D pre-stack seismic data
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Amplitude variation with offset (AVO) analysis is an 1 efficient tool for hydrocarbon detection and identification of elastic rock properties and fluid types. It has been applied in the present study using reprocessed pre-stack 2D seismic data (1992, Caulerpa) from north-west of the Bonaparte Basin, Australia. The AVO response along the 2D pre-stack seismic data in the Laminaria High NW shelf of Australia was also investigated. Three hypotheses were suggested to investigate the AVO behaviour of the amplitude anomalies in which three different factors; fluid substitution, porosity and thickness (Wedge model) were tested. The AVO models with the synthetic gathers were analysed using log information to find which of these is the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Data Aggregation in Wireless Sensor Networks Using Modified Voronoi Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm
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Data centric techniques, like data aggregation via modified algorithm based on fuzzy clustering algorithm with voronoi diagram which is called modified Voronoi Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm (VFCA) is presented in this paper. In the modified algorithm, the sensed area divided into number of voronoi cells by applying voronoi diagram, these cells are clustered by a fuzzy C-means method (FCM) to reduce the transmission distance. Then an appropriate cluster head (CH) for each cluster is elected. Three parameters are used for this election process, the energy, distance between CH and its neighbor sensors and packet loss values. Furthermore, data aggregation is employed in each CH to reduce the amount of data transmission which le

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh Distribution under Type-I Censored Data
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     This paper discusses estimating the two scale parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution for singly type one censored data which is one of the most important Rights censored data, using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLEM) which is one of the most popular and widely used classic methods, based on an iterative procedure such as the Newton-Raphson to find estimated values for these two scale parameters by using real data for COVID-19 was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. The duration of the study was in the interval 4/5/2020 until 31/8/2020 equivalent to 120 days, where the number of patients who entered the (study) hospital with sample size is (n=785). The number o

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 12 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Hiding Data in Color Image Using Least Significant Bits of Blue Sector
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Concealing the existence of secret hidden message inside a cover object is known as steganography, which is a powerful technique. We can provide a secret communication between sender and receiver using Steganography. In this paper, the main goal is for hiding secret message into the pixels using Least Significant Bit (LSB) of blue sector of the cover image. Therefore, the objective is by mapping technique presenting a model for hiding text in an image. In the model for proposing the secret message, convert text to binary also the covering (image) is divided into its three original colors, Red, Green and Blue (RGB) , use the Blue sector convert it to binary,  hide two bits from the message in  two bits of the least significant b

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