In this paper, the propose is to use the xtreme value distribution as the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous Poisson process, in order to improve the rate of occurrence of the non-homogenous process, which has been called the Extreme value Process. To estimate the parameters of this process, it is proposed to use the Maximum Likelihood method, Method of Moment and a smart method represented by the Artificial Bee Colony:(ABC) algorithm to reach an estimator for this process which represents the best data representation. The results of the three methods are compared through a simulation of the model, and it is concluded that the estimator of (ABC) is better than the estimator of the maximum likelihood method and method of moment in estimating the time rate of occurrence of the proposed Extreme value process. The research also includes a realistic application that deals with the operating periods of two successive stops for the raw materials factory from the General Company for Northern Cement / Badush Cement Factories (new) during the period from 1/4/2018 to 31/1/2019, in order to reach the time rate of factory stops.
The optical detectors which had been used in medical applications, and especially in radioactive treatments, need to be modified studied for the effects of radiations on them. This study included preparation of the MnS thin films in a way that vacuum thermal evaporation process at room temperature 27°C with thickness (400+-10nm) nm and a sedimentation rate of 0.39nm/sec on glass floors. The thin films prepared as a detector and had to be treated with neutron irradiation to examine the results gained from this process. The results decay X-ray (XRD) showed that all the prepared thin films have a multi-crystalline structure with the dominance of the direction (111), the two samples were irradiated with a neutron irradiation source (241Am-9Be)
... Show MoreIn this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
... Show MoreIn this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.
In this paper we shall generalize fifth explicit Runge-Kutta Feldberg(ERKF(5)) and Continuous explicit Runge-Kutta (CERK) method using shooting method to solve second order boundary value problem which can be reduced to order one.These methods we shall call them as shooting Continuous Explicit Runge-Kutta method, the results are computed using matlab program.
Blood samples were collected from (31) pregnant women infected with cytomegalovirus , also (15) blood samples were collected from congenitally infected infants, and (20),(15),(15) blood samples were collected from pregnant women ,non pregnant and infants, respectively, all of them were as control groups. CMV infection identified by using ELISA assay to detect specific CMV IgM & IgG in sera. The results of lymphocyte transformation showed a significant decrease when phytoheamagglutinin (PHA) used as stimulator, lymphocytes response in infected pregnant women was lower than that of non infected pregnant women as well as non pregnant women. Result also showed a significant decrease in the ability of lymphocyte division in healthy pregnant w
... Show MoreNine fish specimens of Thryssa setirostris (Broussonet, 1782) were collected from the Arabian Gulf, during the period from July 2015 to April 2016. Because of the scarcity of this fish and overlapping and ambiguous of its taxonomic characters with other Thryssa spp., a detailed taxonomic study was conducted. The present study includes the most important meristic and morphometric characteristics.
The mean of the total length of the specimens was 149.67 mm; dorsal fin consists of 12 rays, anal fin with 34-37 rays and pectoral fin with 12-13 rays; Gill rakers were 4 upper,1 medial an.10 lower. The most important character that isolates T. setiristis from
... Show MoreThere are a few studies that discuss the medical causes for diabetic foot (DF) ulcerations in Iraq, one of them in Wasit province. The aim of our study was to analyze the medical, therapeutic, and patient risk factors for developing DF ulcerations among diabetic patients in Baghdad, Iraq.
For the first time in Iraq, the crustacean Ergasilus ogawai Kabata,
1992 was recorded from the gills of Silurus triostegus, Mastacembelus mastacembelus, Mystus pelusius and Acanthopagrus latus out of 12 fish species caught from Garmat Ali river north of Basrah city during the period from September 1999 till August 2000. The percentage incidence of infestations of these four fish species were 98.9%, 100%,
49.6% and 71.4% while the intensity of infestations were 417, 81.8,
3.4 and 2, respectively. No significant differences in infestations of
male and female hosts with this crustacean were detected.