This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
The optimal combination of aluminum quality, sufficient strength, high stress to weight ratio and clean finish make it a good choice in driveshafts fabrication. This study has been devoted to experimentally investigate the effect of applying laser shock peening (LSP) on the fatigue performance for 6061-T6 aluminum alloy rotary shafts. Q-switched pulsed Nd:YAG laser was used with operating parameters of 500 mJ and 600 mJ pulse energies, 12 ns pulse duration and 10 Hz pulse repetition rate. The LSP is applied at the waist of the prepared samples for the cyclic fatigue test. The results show that applying 500 mJ pulse energy yields a noticeable effect on enhancing the fatigue strength by increasing the required number of cycles to fracture the
... Show MoreA novel method for Network Intrusion Detection System (NIDS) has been proposed, based on the concept of how DNA sequence detects disease as both domains have similar conceptual method of detection. Three important steps have been proposed to apply DNA sequence for NIDS: convert the network traffic data into a form of DNA sequence using Cryptography encoding method; discover patterns of Short Tandem Repeats (STR) sequence for each network traffic attack using Teiresias algorithm; and conduct classification process depends upon STR sequence based on Horspool algorithm. 10% KDD Cup 1999 data set is used for training phase. Correct KDD Cup 1999 data set is used for testing phase to evaluate the proposed method. The current experiment results sh
... Show MoreA novel technique Sumudu transform Adomian decomposition method (STADM), is employed to handle some kinds of nonlinear time-fractional equations. We demonstrate that this method finds the solution without discretization or restrictive assumptions. This method is efficient, simple to implement, and produces good results. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense. The solutions are obtained using STADM, and the results show that the suggested technique is valid and applicable and provides a more refined convergent series solution. The MATLAB software carried out all the computations and graphics. Moreover, a graphical representation was made for the solution of some examples. For integer and fractional order problems, solutio
... Show MoreAbstract
This study highlights the importance of Iraq in the analysis of foreign trade and economic growth for the period (1980 - 2013) is an attempt to determine the equilibrium relationship long term and short term between these two variables were used ARDL model to explain the economic relationship between the two variables.
To achieve the objectives of the research has been the standard model estimate after testing the stability of exports X data series, and imports M, and GDP current prices, and exchange rate EXR, and verify the existence of a joint integration relationship between these variables.
In order to achieve the objectives of the research it
... Show MoreIn this paper, we present a Branch and Bound (B&B) algorithm of scheduling (n) jobs on a single machine to minimize the sum total completion time, total tardiness, total earliness, number of tardy jobs and total late work with unequal release dates. We proposed six heuristic methods for account upper bound. Also to obtain lower bound (LB) to this problem we modified a (LB) select from literature, with (Moore algorithm and Lawler's algorithm). And some dominance rules were suggested. Also, two special cases were derived. Computational experience showed the proposed (B&B) algorithm was effective in solving problems with up to (16) jobs, also the upper bounds and the lower bound were effective in restr
... Show MoreThis paper is concerned with the solution of the nanoscale structures consisting of the with an effective mass envelope function theory, the electronic states of the quantum ring are studied. In calculations, the effects due to the different effective masses of electrons in and out the rings are included. The energy levels of the electron are calculated in the different shapes of rings, i.e., that the inner radius of rings sensitively change the electronic states. The energy levels of the electron are not sensitively dependent on the outer radius for large rings. The structures of quantum rings are studied by the one electronic band Hamiltonian effective mass approximati
... Show MoreThe primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the
... Show MoreIn this work, plasma parameters such as (electron temperature (Te), electron density (ne), plasma frequency (fp) and Debye length (λD)) were studied using spectral analysis techniques. The spectrum of the plasma was recorded with different energy values, SnO2 and ZnO anesthetized at a different ratio (X = 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6) were recorded. Spectral study of this mixing in the air. The results showed electron density and electron temperature increase in zinc oxide: tin oxide alloy targets. It was located that The intensity of the lines increases in different laser peak powers when the laser peak power increases and then decreases when the force continues to increase.