This paper focuses on choosing a spatial mixture model with implicitly includes the time to represent the relative risks of COVID-19 pandemic using an appropriate model selection criterion. For this purpose, a more recent criterion so-called the widely Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is used which we believe that its use so limitedly in the context of relative risk modelling. In addition, a graphical method is adopted that is based on a spatial-temporal predictive posterior distribution to select the best model yielding the best predictive accuracy. By applying this model selection criterion, we seek to identify the levels of relative risk, which implicitly represents the determination of the number of the model components of all regions over independent time periods. The estimation of parameters and the model selection are both performed in a Bayesian framework. Also, the means of estimated relative risk for the selected mixture model are mapped to give a clearer picture of distributing the disease risks in each district.
This paper investigated an Iraqi dataset from Korek Telecom Company as Call Detail Recorded (CDRs) for six months falling between Sep. 2020-Feb. 2021. This data covers 18 governorates, and it falls within the period of COVID-19. The Gravity algorithm was applied into two levels of abstraction in deriving the results as the macroscopic and mesoscopic levels respectively. The goal of this study was to reveal the strength and weakness of people migration in-between the Iraqi cities. Thus, it has been clear that the relationship between each city with the others is based on and of mobile people. However, the COVID-19 effects on the people’s migration needed to be explored. Whereas the main function of the gravity model is to
... Show MoreHypertension is a major health problem throughout the world because of its high prevalence and its association with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. It is defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg. The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy, safety and cardiovascular disease risk lowering ability, of three antihypertensive drug regimens.
A retrospective study was carried out on 66 hypertensive patients, divided in to three groups based on their antihypertensive drug regimens (ACE inhibitors, β-blockers treated and combination antihypertensive therapy, the combination therapy consist of two or more of the following antihypertensive drugs ACE inhibitor di
... Show MoreAll major organs may be impacted by the connective disease systemic lupus erythematosus, a separate risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). Adhesion molecules like intercellular adhesion molecules (ICAM) and vascular cell adhesion molecules (VCAM) can detect endothelial damage and dysfunction, which appear to play a crucial role. This study investigated whether people with SLE had elevated subclinical and clinical atherosclerosis risk factors. Traditional CAD risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia cannot entirely explain this elevation. It is thought that immunological dysfunction also increases CAD risk in SLE patients. The study aimed to assess early endothelial changes in SLE Iraqi female patients w
... Show MoreIn this article, we investigate a mathematical fractional model of tuberculosis that takes into account vaccination as a possible way to treat the disease. We use an in-host tuberculosis fractional model that shows how Macrophages and Mycobacterium tuberculosis interact to knowledge of how vaccination treatments affect macrophages that have not been infected. The existence of optimal control is proven. The Hamiltonian function and the maximum principle of the Pontryagin are used to describe the optimal control. In addition, we use the theory of optimal control to develop an algorithm that leads to choosing the best vaccination plan. The best numerical solutions have been discovered using the forward and backward fractional Euler
... Show MoreBackground: The estimation of ferritin and related variables by complete serum iron profile, for Iraqi hashimoto’s patients to see the effect of thyroid hormone insufficiency, which may lead to deficiency of ferritin iron stores, this may be quite useful during the diagnosis and treatment of hashimoto’s patients. Patients and Method: The study was performed at National Center of Teaching laboratories of Medical city institute in Baghdad. Fifty newly diagnosed patients with hashimoto’s and forty apparently healthy controls. Diagnosis based on thyroid profile analysis including:Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH), Thyroxine (totalT4) and Triiodothyronine (total T3), estimation of antibodies against thyroperoxidase, iron profile including:
... Show MoreThe main function of a power system is to supply the customer load demands as economically as possible. Risk criterion is the probability of not meeting the load. This paper presents a methodology to assess probabilistic risk criteria of Al-Qudus plant before and after expansion; as this plant consists of ten generating units presently and the Ministry Of Electricity (MOE) is intending to compact four units to it in order to improve the performance of Iraqi power system especially at Baghdad region. The assessment is calculated by a program using Matlab programming language; version 7.6. Results show that the planned risk is (0.003095) that is (35 times) less than that in the present plant risk; (0.1091); which represents respectable imp
... Show MoreChronic inflammation can induce proliferative events and posttranslational DNA modifications in prostate tissue through oxidative stress. The present study was designed to evaluate the changes in serum levels of TNF-α, malomdialdehyde (MDA) and total antioxidant status (TAS) patients with different stages of malignant prostatic cancer (PCa) and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). One hundred males (age range of 58-72 years) with different stages of malignant PCa were recruited from the Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine Teaching Hospital in Baghdad during the period from September 2010 to April 2011. The patients were categorized according to the 4 disease stages (I, II, III, and IV); 25 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)
... Show MoreIn this research The study of Multi-level model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level models and one of the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa
... Show MoreIn this research The study of Multi-level model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level models and one of the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa
... Show MoreAsphalt binder is a thermoplastic material that conducts as an elastic solid at lower service temperatures or throughout fast loading rate. At a high temperature or slow rate of loading, asphalt binder conducts as a different liquid. The classical duplication generates a required to assess the mechanical properties of asphalt concrete at the anticipated service temperature to reduce the stress cracking, which happens at lower temperatures, fatigue, and the plastic deformation at higher temperatures (rutting). In this study, an achievement was made to assess the effect of temperature on the mechanical characteristics of asphalt concrete mixes. A total of 132 asphalt concrete samples were attended utilizing two asphalt cement grades (40-50) a
... Show More