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Network Traffic Prediction Based on Time Series Modeling
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    Predicting the network traffic of web pages is one of the areas that has increased focus in recent years. Modeling traffic helps find strategies for distributing network loads, identifying user behaviors and malicious traffic, and predicting future trends. Many statistical and intelligent methods have been studied to predict web traffic using time series of network traffic. In this paper, the use of machine learning algorithms to model Wikipedia traffic using Google's time series dataset is studied. Two data sets were used for time series, data generalization, building a set of machine learning models (XGboost, Logistic Regression, Linear Regression, and Random Forest), and comparing the performance of the models using (SMAPE) and (MAPE). The results showed the possibility of modeling the network traffic time series and that the performance of the linear regression model is the best compared to the rest of the models for both series.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2022
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Statistical Modeling for Traffic Noise: The Case of Kirkuk City
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The auditory system can suffer from exposure to loud noise and human health can be affected. Traffic noise is a primary contributor to noise pollution. To measure the noise levels, 3 variables were examined at 25 locations. It was found that the main factors that determine the increase in noise level are traffic volume, vehicle speed, and road functional class. The data have been taken during three different periods per day so that they represent and cover the traffic noise of the city during heavy traffic flow conditions. Analysis of traffic noise prediction was conducted using a simple linear regression model to accurately predict the equivalent continuous sound level. The difference between the predicted and the measured noise shows that

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling The Power Grid Network Of Iraq
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Recently, the theory of Complex Networks gives a modern insight into a variety of applications in our life. Complex Networks are used to form complex phenomena into graph-based models that include nodes and edges connecting them. This representation can be analyzed by using network metrics such as node degree, clustering coefficient, path length, closeness, betweenness, density, and diameter, to mention a few. The topology of the complex interconnections of power grids is considered one of the challenges that can be faced in terms of understanding and analyzing them. Therefore, some countries use Complex Networks concepts to model their power grid networks. In this work, the Iraqi Power Grid network (IPG) has been modeled, visua

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
NS2 – Based Experimental Analysis of Throughput for TCP and UDP Traffic During Link Failure of The Network
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     Link failure refers to the failure between two connections/nodes in a perfectly working simulation scenario at a particular instance. Transport layer routing protocols form an important basis of setting up a simulation, with Transmission Control Protocol and User Datagram Protocol being the primary of them. The research makes use of Network Simulator v2.35 to conduct different simulation experiments for link failure and provide validation results. In this paper, both protocols, TCP and UDP are compared based on the throughput of packets delivered from one node to the other constrained to the condition that for a certain interval of time the link fails and the simulation time remains the same for either of the protocols. Overall,

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 12 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Network Performance Analysis Based on Network Simulator NS-2.
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     NS-2 is a tool to simulate networks and events that occur per packet sequentially based on time and are widely used in the research field. NS-2 comes with NAM (Network Animator) that produces a visual representation it also supports several simulation protocols. The network can be tested end-to-end. This test includes data transmission, delay, jitter, packet-loss ratio and throughput. The Performance Analysis simulates a virtual network and tests for transport layer protocols at the same time with variable data and analyzes simulation results based on the network simulator NS-2.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Telecom Churn Prediction based on Deep Learning Approach
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      The transition of customers from one telecom operator to another has a direct impact on the company's growth and revenue. Traditional classification algorithms fail to predict churn effectively. This research introduces a deep learning model for predicting customers planning to leave to another operator. The model works on a high-dimensional large-scale data set. The performance of the model was measured against other classification algorithms, such as Gaussian NB, Random Forrest, and Decision Tree in predicting churn. The evaluation was performed based on accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, Area Under Curve (AUC), and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve. The proposed deep learning model performs better than othe

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
FILTRATION MODELING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)
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In this research Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied to study the filtration process in water treatment. Eight models have been developed and tested using data from a pilot filtration plant, working under different process design criteria; influent turbidity, bed depth, grain size, filtration rate and running time (length of the filtration run), recording effluent turbidity and head losses. The ANN models were constructed for the prediction of different performance criteria in the filtration process: effluent turbidity, head losses and running time. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use artificial neural networks in predicting effluent turbidity, head losses and running time in the filtration process, wi

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improvement of Traffic Movement for Roads Network in Al-Kadhimiya City Center
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Numerous regions in the city of Baghdad experience the congestion and traffic problems. Due to the religious and economic significance, Al-Kadhimiya city (inside the metropolitan range of Baghdad) was chosen as study area. The data gathering stage was separated into two branches: the questionnaire method which is utilized to estimate the traffic volumes for the chosen roads and field data collection method which included video recording and manual counting for the volumes entering the selected signal intersections. The stage of analysis and evaluation for the seventeen urban roads, one highway, and three intersections was performed by HCS-2000 software.The presented work plots a system for assessing the level of service

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Advances In Intelligent Systems And Computing
Forecasting by Using the Optimal Time Series Method
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Publication Date
Wed May 03 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Time Series Forecasting by Using Box-Jenkins Models
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    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.

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