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Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak by a Numerical Modelling
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Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and solved numerically by the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The reproductive numbers R0 was estimated by the method of fitting the curves between the actual daily data and numerical solution by applying the least square method. For the analysis, data were taken for the duration of 165 days, from 1st of March to 12th August 2020, in a population of 5.2 million. It is concluded that the R0 value was fluctuating during the outbreak, with an average of 1.33, predicting that infection cases will reach their maximum value of around 540,000 on the 5th of November 2020. Then, the spread of the disease will die out since the number of susceptible people will decrease to about 3.2 million. While the number of removed individuals will reach approximately to 1.5 million.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Experimental Study to The Effect of Applying Stressing Force on Etched Polarization Maintaining Fiber as Hybrid Fabry-Perot /Mach-Zehnder inline fiber interferometer
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Abstract: The increased interest in developing new photonic devices that can support high data rates, high sensitivity and fast processing capabilities for all optical communications, motivates a pre stage pulse compressor research. The pre-stage research was based on cascading single mode fiber and polarization maintaining fiber to get pulse compression with compression factor of 1.105. The demand for obtaining more précised photonic devices; this work experimentally studied the behavior of Polarization maintaining fiber PMF that is sandwiched between two cascaded singe mode fiber SMF and fiber Bragg gratings FBG. Therefore; the introduced interferometer performed hybrid interference of both Mach-Zehnder

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 20 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
Women's Image in Arabic Songs (An Analytical Study of how Women Appear in the Most Viewed Songs on YouTube for the Year 2021)
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 14 2024
Journal Name
Al-rafidain Journal Of Medical Sciences ( Issn 2789-3219 )
Impact of MDR-1 Gene Polymorphism (rs1128503) on Response to Imatinib or Nilotinib in Iraqi Patients with Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: An Observational Study
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Background: There is a significant molecular response to imatinib given at standard doses in individuals with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) whose ABCB1 polymorphisms are present. Objective: To investigate the impact of the polymorphism in the ABCB1 gene rs1128503 on the effectiveness of nilotinib or imatinib therapy. Methods: From May 2022 until the end of January 2023, the current study was carried out in a single research institution, the National Center of Hematology, Baghdad Teaching Hospital at Medical City, Iraq. 76 people with chronic phase myeloid leukemia (CML-CP), who had previously received a diagnosis using the European Leukemia Net (ELN) criteria, enrolled in the trial. The PCR product was delivered to Macrogen Corpora

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Agricult.
FORECASTING THE EXCHANGE RATES OF THE US DOLLAR AGAINST THE IRAQI DINAR USING THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY IN TIME SERIES WITH PRACTICAL APPLICATION
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The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of International Monetary Fund in Planning monetary policy for Developing the Iraqi economy: An Applied Research for the Period (2004-2013)
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The developing countries, like our country Iraq suffer from deep comprehensive structural crisis, manifestations and a clear imbalance between the demand and the supply sides. The overall imbalance in the external balance. As a consequence, this caused the accumulation of foreign debts or failure in the implementation of economic development programs. The countries which are forced to resort to the International Monitoring Funds, and the World Bank for assistance and to express an opinion on policies that include restrictions controls that belong to the monetary, and fiscal side group, imposed on the economies crisis, as a condition for returning to normal which called reform programs. The organize of the events of radical changes in the

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of cellular immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani comparing with cellular immune response against chicken Red Blood Cells.
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The Evaluation of the immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani was determined in this study, particularly, the cellular immune response. Follow up has maintained to determine the Delayed Type of Hypersensitivity using skin test both in infected and control lab animals. Chicken red blood cells were used as a parameter to evaluate the immune system; they are dull and have the ability of immunization. Two concentrations of chicken R.B.C were examined to determine which gives the higher titration in Hamsters and those were 1.5 X 109 cell/ml and 3 X 109 cell/ml , the second concentration gave the maximum titration where then used in this work. After sensitization with Chicken R.B.C for both infected a

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Publication Date
Thu May 25 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Multipole Mixing Ratios of Gamma Rays From Fe(n,nγ) Fe 56 56 26 26  Reaction Using Constant Statistical Tensor Method (CST).
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The - Multiple mixing ratios of -transitions from levels of 56Fe populated in 56 56 ( , ) Fe n n Fe  ï‚¢ reactions are calculated by using const. S.T.M.  This method has been used in other works [3,7] but with pure transition or with  transitions that can be considered as pure transitionsØŒ in our work we used   This method for mixed  - transitions in addition to pure  - transitions. The experimental angular distribution coefficients a2 was used from previous works [1] in order to calculet - values. It is clear from the results that the - values are in good agreement or consistent, within associated errors, with those reported previously [1]. The discrepancies that occur

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Violet Laser Irradiation Effect on The Optical Properties of Cobalt oxide (CoO<sub>2</sub>) Thin Films deposited via Semi-Computerized Spraying System
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Abstract<p>The existing investigation explains the consequence of irradiation of violet laser on the optic properties of (CoO<sub>2</sub>) films. The film was equipped by the utilization of semi-computerized spray pyrolysis technique (SCSPT), it is the first time that this technique is used in the preparation and irradiation using a laser in this technique. From the XRD analysis, the crystalline existence with trigonal crystal system was when the received films were processed by continuous violet laser (405 nm) with power (1W) for different laser irradiation time using different number of times a laser scan (0, 6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 times) with total irradiation time(0,30,45,60,75,90 min</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of Innovation in offering the banking services in achieving competitive advantage for banks ( An applied study in the Iraqi private Banks )
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     This research aims at recognizing the concept of Innovation in offering the banking services as well as the concept and dimensions of competitive advantage . And to identify and analyze the relationship ( correlation and impact ) between the concept of Innovation in  offering the banking services and the dimensions of the competitive advantage under discussion . The research includes all Iraqi private banks in Baghdad city only of the (20) banks . The researcher adopted , in this study , a random sample of the distribution of the questionnaire to members of the research sample are managers , customers and employees in these banks , and were distributed ( 115 ) form  questionnaire , ( 97 ) form w

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Violation of the Hormonal Spectrum in Polycystic Ovaries in Combination with Insulin Resistance. What is the Trigger: Insulin Resistance or Polycystic Ovary Disease?
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Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the main cause of female infertility. The role of insulin resistance in the development of polycystic ovary is actively discussed here. The study included patients with PCOS without insulin resistance (n = 48) and with insulin resistance (n = 39). The comparison groups were patients with no history of PCOS: a control group without insulin resistance (n = 46) and a group of patients with insulin resistance (n = 45). The following parameters were determined in patients: FSH, LH, TSH, T3f, T4f, PRL, E2, 17-OHd, Pr, AMH, Test total, Testf, DHEAS, DHEASs, SHBG, ACTH, cortisol, IRI, IGF-1, C-peptide, and glucose level. The HOMA-IR index and the LH / FSH ratio and t

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