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Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak by a Numerical Modelling
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Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and solved numerically by the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The reproductive numbers R0 was estimated by the method of fitting the curves between the actual daily data and numerical solution by applying the least square method. For the analysis, data were taken for the duration of 165 days, from 1st of March to 12th August 2020, in a population of 5.2 million. It is concluded that the R0 value was fluctuating during the outbreak, with an average of 1.33, predicting that infection cases will reach their maximum value of around 540,000 on the 5th of November 2020. Then, the spread of the disease will die out since the number of susceptible people will decrease to about 3.2 million. While the number of removed individuals will reach approximately to 1.5 million.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Speech Acts Analysis of English COVID-19 News Headlines: مثنى نجيب المرسومي, جمعة قادر حسين
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News headlines are key elements in spreading news. They are unique texts written in a special language which enables readers understand the overall nature and importance of the topic. However, this special language causes difficulty for readers in understanding the headline. To illuminate this difficulty, it is argued that a pragmatic analysis from a speech act theory perspective is a plausible tool for a headline analysis. The main objective of the study is to pragmatically analyze the most frequently employed types of speech acts in the news headlines covering COVID-19 in Aljazeera English website. To this end, Bach and Harnish's (1979) Taxonomy of Speech Acts has been adopted to analyze the data. Thirty headlines have been collected f

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
An application of Barnacle Mating Optimizer in Infectious Disease Prediction: A Dengue Outbreak Cases
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Meta-heuristic algorithms have been significantly applied in addressing various real-world prediction problem, including in disease prediction. Having a reliable disease prediction model benefits many parties in providing proper preparation for prevention purposes. Hence, the number of cases can be reduced. In this study, a relatively new meta-heuristic algorithm namely Barnacle Mating Optimizer (BMO) is proposed for short term dengue outbreak prediction. The BMO prediction model is realized over real dengue cases data recorded in weekly frequency from Malaysia. In addition, meteorological data sets were also been employed as input. For evaluation purposes, error analysis relative to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Err

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Detection of COVID-19 in X-Rays by Convolutional Neural Networks
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      Coronavirus is considered the first virus to sweep the world in the twenty-first century, it appeared by the end of 2019. It started in the Chinese city of Wuhan and began to spread in different regions around the world too quickly and uncontrollable due to the lack of medical examinations and their inefficiency. So, the process of detecting the disease needs an accurate and quickly detection techniques and tools. The X-Ray images are good and quick in diagnosing the disease, but an automatic and accurate diagnosis is needed. Therefore, this paper presents an automated methodology based on deep learning in diagnosing COVID-19. In this paper, the proposed system is using a convolutional neural network, which is considered one o

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 09 2023
Journal Name
Plos One
A cross-sectional analysis of the predictors of COVID-19 vaccine uptake and vaccine hesitancy in Iraq
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Background

Vaccine hesitancy poses a significant risk to global recovery from COVID-19. To date however, there is little research exploring the psychological factors associated with vaccine acceptability and hesitancy in Iraq.

Aim

To explore attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in Iraq. To establish the predictors of vaccine uptake and vaccine hesitancy in an Iraqi population.

Methods

Using a cross-sectional design, 7,778 participants completed an online questionnaire exploring their vaccination status, likelihood of infection, perc

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 09 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Exacerbation of COVID 19 in Hypertensive Patients ( A review)
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Since its discovery in December 2019, corona virus was outbreak worldwide with very rapid rate, so it described by WHO as pandemic. It associated with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, and can enter to cells through Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE 2) receptor which play an important role as regulator for blood pressure. Hypertension is a potential risk factor for sever acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19, and associated with high mortality rate as shown in many epidemiological studies. Moreover, specific antihypertensive medications that infected patients were receiving are not known; only data about renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) are available.  

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
COVID-19 and the Conspiracy Theories
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The first known use of the term conspiracy theory dated back to the nineteenth century. It is defined as a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators. It is commonly used, but by no means limited to, extreme political groups. Since the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic in December 2019, the conspiracy theory was present at all stages of the pandemic.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
COVID-19 and the Conspiracy Theories
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The first known use of the term conspiracy theory dated back to the nineteenth century. It is defined as a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators. It is commonly used, but by no means limited to, extreme political groups. Since the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic in December 2019, the conspiracy theory was present at all stages of the pandemic.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 12 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
A Brief view on the pediatric COVID- 19 pandemic
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The world is currently challenging the serious effects of the pandemic of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Data on pediatric COVID are rare and scattered in the literature. In this article, we presented the updated knowledge on the pediatric COVID-19 from different aspects. We hope it will increase the awareness of the pediatricians and health care professionals on this pandemic.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Rawal Medical Journal
Obesity in COVID-19 patients is a complex interaction
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Objective: To assess role of obesity in Covid-19 patients on antibodies production, diabetes development, and treatment of this disease. Methodology: This observational study included 200 Covid-19 patients in privet centers from January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022. All patients had fasting blood sugars and anti-Covid-19 antibodies. Anthropometric parameters were measured in all participants. Results: The patients were divided into two groups according to body weight; normal body weight (50) and excess body weight (150). There was a significant difference between them regarding age. Diabetes mellitus developed in 20% of normal weight patients while 80% of excess weight patients had diabetes (p=0.0001). Antibodies production (IgM and

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Features of news coverage during Covid-19 crisis: Content analysis on a sample of global news accounts on Twitter
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This study aims to analyze the messages of a number of global news outlets on Twitter. In order to clarify the news outlets tactics of reporting, the subjects and focus during the crisis related to the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The study sample was chosen in a deliberate manner to provide descriptive results. Three news sites were selected: two of the most followed, professional and famous international news sites: New York Times and the Guardian, and one Arab news site: Al-Arabiya channel.

A total of 18,085 tweets were analyzed for the three accounts during the period from (1/3/2020) to (8/4/2020). A content analysis form was used to analyze the content of the news coverage.   The results indicate an increase in th

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