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An application of Barnacle Mating Optimizer in Infectious Disease Prediction: A Dengue Outbreak Cases

Meta-heuristic algorithms have been significantly applied in addressing various real-world prediction problem, including in disease prediction. Having a reliable disease prediction model benefits many parties in providing proper preparation for prevention purposes. Hence, the number of cases can be reduced. In this study, a relatively new meta-heuristic algorithm namely Barnacle Mating Optimizer (BMO) is proposed for short term dengue outbreak prediction. The BMO prediction model is realized over real dengue cases data recorded in weekly frequency from Malaysia. In addition, meteorological data sets were also been employed as input. For evaluation purposes, error analysis relative to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) were employed to validate the performance of the identified algorithms which includes the comparison between BMO against Moth Flame Optimizer (MFO) and Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithms. Upon simulation, the superiority is in favour to BMO by producing lower error rates.

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Publication Date
Mon May 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
On the Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological System Incorporating a Vertically Transmitted Infectious Disease

An eco-epidemiological system incorporating a vertically transmitted infectious disease is proposed and investigated. Micheal-Mentence type of harvesting is utilized to study the harvesting effort imposed on the predator. All the properties of the solution of the system are discussed. The dynamical behaviour of the system, involving local stability, global stability, and local bifurcation, is investigated. The work is finalized with the numerical simulation to observe the global behaviour of the solution.

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Publication Date
Sun May 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Analysis and Prediction of COVID-19 Outbreak by a Numerical Modelling

Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Recently, Iraq is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from this outbreak. The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to predict the future of the epidemic and the time of peak, yielding diverse numbers in different countries. This study aims to estimate the basic reproductive number [R0] for COVID-19 in KRI, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of non

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-qadisiyah For Computer Science And Mathematics
Chaos in a harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in the prey

A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.

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Publication Date
Thu May 28 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
A Prey-Predator Model with Michael Mentence Type of Predator Harvesting and Infectious Disease in Prey

A prey-predator model with Michael Mentence type of predator harvesting and infectious disease in prey is studied. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The dynamical behavior of the system is studied locally as well as globally. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation near each of the equilibrium points is investigated. Finally, numerical simulations are given to show our obtained analytical results.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The The Dynamics of a Prey-Predator Model with Infectious Disease in Prey: Role of Media Coverage

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with media coverage effect is proposed and studied. A prey-predator model with modified Leslie-Gower and functional response is studied. An  -type of disease in prey is considered.  The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The local and global stability of this system are carried out. The conditions for the persistence of all species are established. The local bifurcation in the model is studied. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the analytical results.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 20 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
Advanced Machine Learning application for Permeability Prediction for (M) Formation in an Iraqi Oil Field

Permeability estimation is a vital step in reservoir engineering due to its effect on reservoir's characterization, planning for perforations, and economic efficiency of the reservoirs. The core and well-logging data are the main sources of permeability measuring and calculating respectively. There are multiple methods to predict permeability such as classic, empirical, and geostatistical methods. In this research, two statistical approaches have been applied and compared for permeability prediction: Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest, given the (M) reservoir interval in the (BH) Oil Field in the northern part of Iraq. The dataset was separated into two subsets: Training and Testing in order to cross-validate the accuracy

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application

The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Living Dengue (Cause and treatment)

This research dealt with the modern dengue living in its linguistic meaning and where this dengue will be, and its cause and treatment, then concluded the talk about the search with the results envisaged from this research, has been shown that the main reason in living dengue: is after the slave of the book of God and the Sunnah of the Prophet peace be upon him Him.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modeling and Stability of Lotka-Volterra Prey-Predator System Involving Infectious Disease in Each Population

In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of the prey- predator model with disease in both the population is proposed and analyzed. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The existences and the stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are studied. Numerical simulation is carried out to investigate the global dynamical behavior of the system.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 21 2020
Journal Name
2020 Emerging Technology In Computing, Communication And Electronics (etcce)
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