Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.
We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreFinite Element Approach is employed in this research work to solve the governing differential equations related to seepage via its foundation's dam structure. The primary focus for this reason is the discretization of domain into finite elements through the placement of imaginary nodal points and the discretization of governing equations into an equation system; An equation for each nodal point or part, and unknown variables are solved. The SEEP / W software (program) is a sub-program of the Geo-Studio software, which is used by porous soil media to compensate for the problems of seepage. To achieve the research goals, a study was carried out on Hemrin dam, which located in the Diyala River 100 km northeast of Baghdad, Iraq. Thus, o
... Show MoreTwo dimensional meso-scale concrete modeling was used in finite element analysis of plain concrete beam subjected to bending. The plane stress 4-noded quadrilateral elements were utilized to model coarse aggregate, cement mortar. The effect of aggregate fraction distribution, and pores percent of the total area – resulting from air voids entrapped in concrete during placement on the behavior of plain concrete beam in flexural was detected. Aggregate size fractions were randomly distributed across the profile area of the beam. Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was employed to treat the discontinuities problems result from double phases of concrete and cracking that faced during the finite element analysis of concrete beam. Crac
... Show MoreThe study investigates the water quality of the Orontes River, which is considered one of the important water recourses in Syria, as it is used for drinking, irrigation, swimming and industrial needs. A database of 660 measurements for 13 parameters concentrations used, were taken from 11 monitoring points distributed along the Orontes River for a period of five years from 2015-2019, and to study the correlation between parameters and their impact on water quality, statistical analysis was applied using (SPSS) program. Cluster analysis was applied in order to classify the pollution areas along the river, and two groups were given: (low pollution - high pollution), where the areas were classified according to the sources of pollution to w
... Show MoreThe large number of failure in electrical power plant leads to the sudden stopping of work. In some cases, the necessary reserve materials are not available for maintenance which leads to interrupt of power generation in the electrical power plant unit. The present study, deals with the determination of availability aspects of generator in unit 5 of Al-Dourra electric power plant. In order to evaluate this generator's availability performance, a wide range of studies have been conducted to gather accurate information at the level of detail considered suitable to achieve the availability analysis aim. The Weibull Distribution is used to perform the reliability analysis via Minitab 17, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) by approaching o
... Show MoreSeepage occurs under or inside structures or in the place, where they come into contact with the sides under the influence of pressure caused by the difference in water level in the structure U / S and D / S. This paper is designed to model seepage analysis for Kongele (an earth dam) due to its importance in providing water for agricultural projects and supporting Tourism sector. For this purpose, analysis was carried out to study seepage through the dam under various conditions. Using the finite element method by computer program (Geo-Studio) the dam was analysed in its actual design using the SEEP / W 2018 program. Several analyses were performed to study the seepage across Kongele
Kinematics is the mechanics branch which dealswith the movement of the bodies without taking the force into account. In robots, the forward kinematics and inverse kinematics are important in determining the position and orientation of the end-effector to perform multi-tasks. This paper presented the inverse kinematics analysis for a 5 DOF robotic arm using the robotics toolbox of MATLAB and the Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) parameters were used to represent the links and joints of the robotic arm. A geometric approach was used in the inverse kinematics solution to determine the joints angles of the robotic arm and the path of the robotic arm was divided into successive lines to accomplish the required tasks of the robotic arm.Therefore, this
... Show More