The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Water supply networks are marred by serious risks of imperceptible pipeline leakage, posing ‎sustainability ‎and ‎performance ‎threats.  This article highlights the use of vibratory signal features to get around the drawbacks of traditional methods in a highly detailed framework for leak detection based on CatBoost. demonstrated excellent diagnostic performance and carried out a thorough test performance evaluation on five leakage configurations  . The expected system achieved an accuracy of 98.1% (variance (well within x/3% of expected):, beating traditional competitors such as Random Forest (97.3%) and Support Vector Machine (93.8%). ‎For example, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.995, in

This paper is a part of a cytological studies of the genus Bromus L. in Iraq . Cl number for 103 specimens ropro^eming l^species determined . The course of meiosis including an analysis of chromosome configuradon for 27 collections belonging to 8 species were investigated . Meiosis was regular in most species . Tetraploid for B.scoparius L. (new cytotype ) and hexaploid ?'or " Kunth. were re^rted for the first time, cytological findings were supported the view of maintaining the closely related species B.danthoniae Trin. and B.lanceolatus Roth, as distinct species .

>>>>

Thi s study included the effect of chronic exposure of di fferent concentrations of Nan on the biology of fresh water zroDplonk ton species Moina 41.112' ( Cladcxe'ra The concentrations used for chronic exposure were 03, 0.75. 1 960 to investigate iI effects on the life cycle and la lables of this species after exposure period and the range of this exposure effects on the rate of expectation for further life, also the effect of salinity on reproduotive parameters was studied which included average of total number of eggs and young produced, volume clutch's (6.95. indiclutch for control group , 14.516 indi clutch for 0.596a ,3_65 ind./ clutch for (175 5(.. and 03 Ind} cruel] for 1960) and number of Clutch's (5.5 clutch/ female for control gr

The agricultural sector suffers from many risks and natural disasters, such as droughts and heavy rains that cause floods, as well as hail and agricultural pests, etc., that threaten agricultural activity and reduce it, which leads to the failure of farmers and peasants for fear of being subjected to continuous losses. Nevertheless, we notice almost complete reluctance to move towards agricultural insurance, due to the dependence of farmers on the government, which adopts the principle of compensation instead of agricultural insurance when natural disasters happen despite the difficulties and financial hardship as well as the suspicion of corruption that haunt the compensation process and this represents the most important problem for resea

In this research study the synodic month for the moon and their
relationship with the mean anomaly for the moon orbit and date A.D
and for long periods of time (100 years), we was design a computer
program that calculates the period of synodic months, and the
coordinates of the moon at the moment of the new moon with high
accuracy. During the 100 year, there are 1236 period of synodic
months.
We found that the when New Moon occurs near perigee (mean
anomaly = 0°), the length of the synodic month at a minimum.
Similarly, when New Moon occurs near apogee (mean anomaly =
180°), the length of the synodic month reaches a maximum. The
shortest synodic month on 2053 /1/ 16 and lasted (29.27436) days.
The lo

Iraq has the second largest proven oil reserves in the world. According to oil experts, it is expected that the Iraq's reserves to rise to 200+ billion barrels of high-grade crude.

Oil is a strategic commodity for producing and exporting countries in general, and Iraq in particular, as demonstrated by the international experience that oil is an important means to achieve economic growth, an important tool in the overall economic, social and political development. It is also an important source of hard currency for any national economy and a means to connect the local economy and the global economy. In this paper we focus our attention on selecting the best regression model that explain the effect of human capita

This included the study of embryonic development of the heart in different lengths of embryos of Sailfin molly (Poecelia latipinna) fish, which is one of the invasive fish species in Iraq and is spread acrosswater bodies, especially in the marshes that are located in the south of Iraq. The fish samples were collected from the AGhazl market in Baghdad province, and dissected to remove the ovary that containing embryos at different lengths using fine forceps. All the samples were fixed using formalin after making a hole in the gas sac, especially in advanced embryos stage. In a 3 mm embryo, the heart was completely formed and the blood vessels and optic cup were clear, while the lens of the eye was beginning to form. In 4-5 mm embryo, it was