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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 17 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Pending issues between the federal government and the Kurdistan region (Constitutional and legal solutions)
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The federal state is usually based on a number of regions because it is based on the multiplicity of political entities. The federal experiments were based on the existence of two or more regions and each federal system has its own peculiarities. Administrative authority between the federal government and local elected bodies of local people of absolute relative independence does not threaten the entity of the state according to the Constitution and the law and on a regional or reformer basis and exercise its powers within the legal scope prescribed The relationship between the federal authority and the Kurdistan region is the first level of the relationship on the real level, especially since no other region in Iraq has been formed exce

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work: The case study of a sample of doctors hospitals City of Medicine
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Purpose: The diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors in the hospitals of t the six hospitals in the City of Medicine.

Design / methodology / Approach: It has been relying on ready-scale, to make sure the diagnosis and determine the level of balance between the time available for life and work, where they were distributed on Form 42 doctors in the six hospitals in the City of Medicine, were analyzed by software (Nvivo and SPSS v.22).

Results: The results showed that there is a good level of balance between the time available for life and work with the doctors.

Research limitations: The diffi

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 04 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using fuzzy logic for estimating monthly pan evaporation from meteorological data in Emara/ South of Iraq
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Evaporation is one of the major components of the hydrological cycle in the nature, thus its accurate estimation is so important in the planning and management of the irrigation practices and to assess water availability and requirements. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of fuzzy inference system for estimating monthly pan evaporation form meteorological data. The study has been carried out depending on 261 monthly measurements of each of temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (W) which have been available in Emara meteorological station, southern Iraq. Three different fuzzy models comprising various combinations of monthly climatic variables (temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) were developed

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Educational activities in the role of government nurseries and its relationship to some variables
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The skill of management educational activities gradually grow with the experience, but they differ from personal skill educator to another, because each style nanny personally and the way to work. There educator and active movement and vitality that look like happiness and clear during the implementation of the activity, and the other runs educational activities quietly, efficiently and without emotion and clear (dry, 2001: p. 274). And the stage of childhood is one of the most important stages that are based upon the future life as a whole because the man also confirmed by the School of analysis psychological is the son of his childhood and the best example to us what the Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him): (Every child i

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 27 2025
Journal Name
The Negative Relationship Between Earthworms And Pesticides
The Negative Relationship between Earthworms and Pesticides
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Degradation of soil quality is an inevitable consequence of modifications to the characteristics of the soil that contribute to a decrease in ecosystem services. Numerous stressors, including chemical, biological, and physical ones, as well as those originating from both natural and artificial sources. The most prevalent kind of soil contamination that contaminates soil biota is agrochemicals. Soil is the most common place for xenobiotic dumping, which makes it the most probable source of other natural resources' pollution, such as surface and ground waters, based on the results of several studies. The danger to the environment posed by polluted soils is influenced by a variety of biological and physicochemical mechanisms that regulate the

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 27 2025
Journal Name
South Asian Research Journal Of Biology And Applied Biosciences
The Negative Relationship between Earthworms and Pesticides
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Degradation of soil quality is an inevitable consequence of modifications to the characteristics of the soil that contribute to a decrease in ecosystem services. Numerous stressors, including chemical, biological, and physical ones, as well as those originating from both natural and artificial sources. The most prevalent kind of soil contamination that contaminates soil biota is agrochemicals. Soil is the most common place for xenobiotic dumping, which makes it the most probable source of other natural resources' pollution, such as surface and ground waters, based on the results of several studies. The danger to the environment posed by polluted soils is influenced by a variety of biological and physicochemical mechanisms that regul

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 22 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Dynamic of a Three Species Food Chain Model under the Influence of Fear and Wind
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This work suggests a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) containing a three-species food chain model incorporating wind and fear effects. The properties of the solution, like positivity and bound-ness, were investigated. All equilibrium points (biologically feasible) have been obtained, and the local stability of these equilibriums has been carried out. The global stability outcomes on the equilibrium points under specific restrictions have been established. Also, the persistence restrictions have been investigated. By utilizing Sotomayor’s theorem, the local bifurcation of the suggested model has been inspected. Furthermore, numerical analysis was carried out to ensure the theoretical results obtained by utilizing MA

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Patterns of active relation between federal authority and government council not organized into a region
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The local authority represented by the Provincial Council and the administrative units thereof has legislative and supervisory functions which are in the administration and supervision of the local public utilities as provided for by the laws in force. The subject of the interactive relationship between the federal authority and the provincial councils not organized in one of the main problems that accompanied the emergence and application of decentralized system Iraq after 2003, which began since the writing of the Constitution in force for the year 2005 and the law of the provinces No. 21 of 2008 This law has been subjected to political recordings that eventually led to the appearance of this consensus image. The weakness of the legisl

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Reliability Function of (2+1) Cascade Model
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This paper discusses reliability R of the (2+1) Cascade model of inverse Weibull distribution. Reliability is to be found when strength-stress distributed is inverse Weibull random variables with unknown scale parameter and known shape parameter. Six estimation methods (Maximum likelihood, Moment, Least Square, Weighted Least Square, Regression and Percentile) are used to estimate reliability. There is a comparison between six different estimation methods by the simulation study by MATLAB 2016, using two statistical criteria Mean square error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error, where it is found that best estimator between the six estimators is Maximum likelihood estimation method.

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