The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
This paper deals with defining Burr-XII, and how to obtain its p.d.f., and CDF, since this distribution is one of failure distribution which is compound distribution from two failure models which are Gamma model and weibull model. Some equipment may have many important parts and the probability distributions representing which may be of different types, so found that Burr by its different compound formulas is the best model to be studied, and estimated its parameter to compute the mean time to failure rate. Here Burr-XII rather than other models is consider because it is used to model a wide variety of phenomena including crop prices, household income, option market price distributions, risk and travel time. It has two shape-parame
... Show MoreThis study was aimed to explore the impact of social concepts about tribe, clan and women, on internal audit performance. These concepts are considered to be components of the organizational culture and performance of internal audit practice, with respect to the individual and collective performance within the institution. The study, furthermore, was intended to investigate and understand the role of the organizational culture of the tribal, clan and women components with regard to their role in society, in Qatar.
To achieve these objectives, the researcher followed the descriptive analytical approach, using a questionnaire directed to experts and staff working in the banking sector, with the view to test
... Show MoreThe two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival
... Show MoreIn this paper an atmometer apparatus were used in the greenhouses for estimating reference evapotranspiration values. Experimental work was conducted in the agriculture research center in the College of Agriculture-University of Baghdad west of the city of Baghdad. One atmometer was used in eggplant greenhouse and in cucumber greenhouse through the winter growing season 2013-2014. FAO Penman-Monteith equation was applied outside the greenhouse and used only 65% from the value of ETo in the greenhouses for estimating the reference evapotranspiration in the greenhouse. Moreover, Penman-Monteith equation was applied in greenhouses for the evaluating the performance of the atmometer. The results show that the erro
... Show MorePareto distribution is used in many economic, financial and social applications. This distribution is used for the study of income and wealth and the study of settlement in cities and villages and the study of the sizes of oil wells as well as in the field of communication through the speed of downloading files from the Internet according to their sizes. This distribution is used in mechanical engineering as one of the distributions of models of failure, stress and durability. Given the practical importance of this distribution on the one hand, and the scarcity of sources and statistical research that deal with it, this research touched on some statistical characteristics such as derivation of its mathematical function , probability density
... Show MoreThis paper aims at presenting a comparison between objective and subjective tests . This paper attemptsto shed light on these two aspects of tests and make do a compression by using suitable techniques for objective and subjective tests .
The paper compares between the two techniques used by the objective and subjective tests respectively, the time and efforts required by each type, the extent to which each type can be reliable, and the skills each type is suitable to measure.
The paper shows that objective tests, on the contrary of the subjective ones, encourages guess> Objective tests are used to test specific areas of langua
... Show MoreThe process of controlling a Flexible Joint Robot Manipulator (FJRM) requires additional sensors for measuring the state variables of flexible joints. Therefore, taking the elasticity into account adds a lot of complexity as all the additional sensors must be taken into account during the control process. This paper proposes a nonlinear observer that controls FJRM, without requiring equipment sensors for measuring the states. The nonlinear state equations are derived in detail for the FJRM where nonlinearity, of order three, is considered. The Takagi–Sugeno Fuzzy Model (T-SFM) technique is applied to linearize the FJRM system. The Luenberger observer is designed to estimate the unmeasured states using error correction. The develop
... Show MoreFuzzy logic is used to solve the load flow and contingency analysis problems, so decreasing computing time and its the best selection instead of the traditional methods. The proposed method is very accurate with outstanding computation time, which made the fuzzy load flow (FLF) suitable for real time application for small- as well as large-scale power systems. In addition that, the FLF efficiently able to solve load flow problem of ill-conditioned power systems and contingency analysis. The FLF method using Gaussian membership function requires less number of iterations and less computing time than that required in the FLF method using triangular membership function. Using sparsity technique for the input Ybus sparse matrix data gi
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This research aims to design a multi-objective mathematical model to assess the project quality based on three criteria: time, cost and performance. This model has been applied in one of the major projects formations of the Saad Public Company which enables to completion the project on time at an additional cost that would be within the estimated budget with a satisfactory level of the performance which match with consumer requirements. The problem of research is to ensure that the project is completed with the required quality Is subject to constraints, such as time, cost and performance, so this requires prioritizing multiple goals. The project
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