The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
The goal of the research is to develop a sustainable rating system for roadway projects in Iraq for all of the life cycle stages of the projects which are (planning, design, construction and operation and maintenance). This paper investigates the criteria and its weightings of the suggested roadway rating system depending on sustainable planning activities. The methodology started in suggesting a group of sustainable criteria for planning stage and then suggesting weights from (1-5) points for each one of it. After that data were collected by using a closed questionnaire directed to the roadway experts group in order to verify the criteria weightings based on the relative importance of the roadway related impacts
... Show MoreThe blade pitch angle (BPA) in wind turbine (WT) is controlled to maximize output power generation above the rated wind speed (WS). In this paper, four types of controllers are suggested and compared for BPA controller in WT: PID controller (PIDC), type-1 fuzzy logic controller (T1-FLC), type-2 fuzzy logic controller (T2-FLC), and hybrid fuzzy-PID controller (FPIDC). The Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy inference systems (FIS) have been compared to find the best inference system used in FLC. Genetic algorithm (GA) and Particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) are used to find the optimal tuning of the PID parameter. The results of500-kw horizontal-axis wind turbine show that PIDC based on PSO can reduced 2.81% in summation error of power
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This research aims to understand complexity management and its impact on the use of the dynamic capabilities of a sample of private colleges. Private colleges are currently facing many crises, changes, unrest and high competitive pressures. Which is sometimes difficult or even impossible to predict. The recruitment of dynamic capabilities is also one of the challenges facing senior management at private colleges to help them survive and survive. Thus, the problem of research was (there is a clear insufficiency of interest in Complexity Management and trying to employ it in improving the dynamic capabilities of Colleges that have been discussed?). A group of private colleges was selected as a
... Show MoreThe changes that have occurred in the business environment and scientific and technological progress, as well as the complexity of administrative problems resulting from its practice of various activities, have led to an increase in the responsibilities entrusted to it, and for the purpose of achieving its strategic objectives, which has made the pillars of corporate governance an inevitable matter required by the nature of modern scientific management of the governorate, the success that companies seek is based on the fertile environment and the dialectical relationship between the individual and the company, and to achieve this success there must be a compatible and harmonious audit environment between the internal and external
... Show MoreThe present study deals with the effect of teaching speaking Strategies (SS) on EFL Iraqi College students. The use of speaking strategies not only solves learners’ communication problems, but also enhances the learner’s interaction in target language, and improves their oral proficiency .The aim of the study is to find out the effect of teaching SS used by EFL College students .The learner of the first stage is population of the study at the Department of English, College of Education /Ibn-Rushd .The sample consists of (60) students distributed on experimental group(A) as well as control group(B) each group contains (30) students . In order to achieve the aim of the study, questionnaire has been constructed to be taught on the experime
... Show MoreIn general, the importance of cluster analysis is that one can evaluate elements by clustering multiple homogeneous data; the main objective of this analysis is to collect the elements of a single, homogeneous group into different divisions, depending on many variables. This method of analysis is used to reduce data, generate hypotheses and test them, as well as predict and match models. The research aims to evaluate the fuzzy cluster analysis, which is a special case of cluster analysis, as well as to compare the two methods—classical and fuzzy cluster analysis. The research topic has been allocated to the government and private hospitals. The sampling for this research was comprised of 288 patients being treated in 10 hospitals. As t
... Show MoreThis research aims toknow the learning styles according to the model of Felder and Silverman and its relationship to effectively self- perceived mathematicalamong students of the Faculty of Education Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham. By answering the following questions: 1. What are the preferred methods of learning among students in the mathematics department according to the model Felder and Silverman? 2. What is the mathematicalself-perceived levelof the students at the Department of Mathematics effectiveness level? 3. What is the relationship between learning styles according to the Felder model and Silverman and the effectiveness of mathematical self-perceived of the students of the Department of Mathematics? The research sample consiste
... Show MoreThis research aims to estimate production functions through which production relations, possibilities for production elements substitution, measurement of its substitution elasticity, and efficiency and distribution coefficients can be analyzed. This would be done through estimation of constant elasticity of substitution production function for agricultural companies in Iraq depending on data from Iraqi Stock Exchange reports of 2005-2016. The researcher had used panel data model and estimated its three models: the Pooled Regression Model (PRM), the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and the Random Effect Model (REM). A comparison was made for theses three models using F, LM, Husman tests. Tests show that Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is the best
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