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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
19th International Conference On Methods And Models In Automation And Robotics (mmar) 2014
A PSO-optimized type-2 fuzzy logic controller for navigation of multiple mobile robots
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement of Government Debt Indicators and the most Its important Effects in Iraq for The period of 1990 – 2013
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Indicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments  ability to repay  the other hand.

      Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq  specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments  inability to repay the ma

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 27 2024
Journal Name
History Of Medicine
Developing and Validating a Spectrophotometric Method for Estimating Antifungal (Nystatin) in its Pure Form Pharmaceutical Formulation Using Tetrachloro-1,4 benzoquinone
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The UV−VIS absorption spectroscopy technique was used to study the formation of a new complex of charge transfer (CT) between bioactive organic molecules as (Nystatin) containing both a π-electrons from a conjugated system and lone-pair of electrons (amine) with Tetrachloro-1,4 benzoquinone (TCBQ) as a π-acceptor in which the transferred electron goes into its vacant anti-bonding molecular orbitals. The Tyrian purple-colored complex formed was quantitatively measured at 544 nm. This complex shows obeying Beer's law within the concentration range of (10-90) μg.ml-1The stoichiometry of the formed complex between the (Nys.) and (TCBQ) was found 1:2 as evaluated by continuous variation (Job's method) and mole ratio method The value of mola

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2026
Journal Name
Open Journal Of Medicinal Chemistry
Relationship between chronic hepatitis B virus and pathogenecitity of Celiac disease in Iraqi patients
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the association between celiac disease and viral infection

Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using simulation to compare between parametric and nonparametric transfer function model
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In this paper, The transfer function model in the time series was estimated using different methods, including parametric Represented by the method of the Conditional Likelihood Function, as well as the use of abilities nonparametric are in two methods  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method, This research aims to compare those capabilities with the nonlinear transfer function model by using the style of simulation and the study of two models as output variable and one model as input variable in addition t

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Conformity and nonconformity and their relation to the emotional balance of high school students
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 Complex and complex psychological processes are complexand are the result of convergence, convergence and interaction between variables, including the subject of mediation or group or individual and psychological processes involved in the variance, including - personal knowledge and emotional tone (Osman, 1987, p. 8 ). An emotionally balanced individual has the ability to endure and delay meeting needs and has the ability to endure as much as possible. Of the emotional balance of the individual is characterized by emotional stability, show some signs of emotional agitation toward any kind of opposition, anger and realism in self-life and discipline (Swift, 1996, p. 44) Van, et al. , Indicates that people with low emotional balance,

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Innovation, Creativity And Change (ijicc)
The relationship between conceptual knowledge and procedural knowledge among students of the mathematics department at the faculty of education for pure sciences/IBn Al-Haitham, university of Baghdad
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Properties of the Adjoint Operator of a General Fuzzy Bounded Operator
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Our goal in the present paper is to recall the concept of general fuzzy normed space and its basic properties in order to define the adjoint operator of a general fuzzy bounded operator from a general fuzzy normed space V into another general fuzzy normed space U. After that basic properties of the adjoint operator were proved then the definition of fuzzy reflexive general fuzzy normed space was introduced in order to prove that every finite dimensional general fuzzy normed space is fuzzy reflexive.

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Publication Date
Sun May 11 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Semi-Parametric Fuzzy Quantile Regression Model EstimationBased on Proposed Metric via Jensen–Shannon Distance
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The design of a proposed model for the application of the insurance policy for medical errors
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The aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu

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