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A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.  

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 23 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectral Characterization, Cytotoxic Assay, and Antimicrobial Evaluation Studies of Some Transition Metal Complexes of Schiff Base Derived From Amoxicillin
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Four metal complexes of Schi base ligand were prepared. To characterize both the ligand and the metal complexes, various techniques were employed, including elemental analysis, FT-IR spectroscopy, UV-Vis spectroscopy, molar conductivity measurements, magnetic moment determination, melting point, mass spectroscopy, 1H-NMR and 13C-NMR spectroscopy. The results showed that the metal complexes formed have the formula [M(L)2Cl2]Cl(n).H2O, where LD Schi base ligand and MDCr(III), Rh(III), Pt(IV) and Au(III), n D 1, 2. Based on spectroscopic analysis, coordination with metal ions involves the ’N’ donor atom of N atoms of the imine and the N-H amid group, and four complexes are suggested to have a six-coordinated octahedral structure. Molar c

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Sex Variations by Linear Measurements of Palatal Bones and Skull Base Using 3D Reconstructed Computed Tomographic Scan among Iraqi Sample
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Background: The skull base and the hard palate contain many anatomical features that make them rich in information which are useful in sex differentiation; in addition to that they have the ability to resist the hardest environmental conditions that support them in making sex differentiation. Three dimensional computed tomographic techniques has important role in differentiation between sex since it offers images with very accurate data and details of all anatomical structures with high resolution. This study was made to study sex variations among Iraqi sample by craniometric linear measurements of the hard palate and the skull base using 3D reconstructed Computed Tomographic scan. Materials and methods: This study composed of 100 Iraqi su

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 05 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
X-Ray Fluorescence Determination of Trace Elements in Vitamin-Mineral Complexes and Medicinal Herbs Using Chemically Modified Polyurethane Foam Sorbents
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In this paper we proposed the method of X-ray fluorescence (XRF) determination of some essential trace elements in medicinal herbs and vitamin-mineral complexes at the level of 100-101 mg/ml. To increase sensitivity and selectivity of the determination we simple and effective approach based on the extraction of metal ions from aqueous solutions with chemically modified polyurethane foam sorbents followed by direct XRF analysis. The conditions of sorption preconcentration of Co(II), Ni(II) and Zn(II) ions with modified sorbents were optimized. The proposed approach is used for the determination of trace elements in several kinds of medicinal herbs (coltsfoot leaves, nettle leaves and yarrow herb) and vitamin-mineral

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Publication Date
Sat May 31 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Computers And Informatics
Discussion on techniques of data cleaning, user identification, and session identification phases of web usage mining from 2000 to 2022
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The data preprocessing step is an important step in web usage mining because of the nature of log data, which are heterogeneous, unstructured, and noisy. Given the scalability and efficiency of algorithms in pattern discovery, a preprocessing step must be applied. In this study, the sequential methodologies utilized in the preprocessing of data from web server logs, with an emphasis on sub-phases, such as session identification, user identification, and data cleansing, are comprehensively evaluated and meticulously examined.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 02 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis, Antibacterial and Molecular Docking Study of Novel 2-Chloro-8-Methoxy-3-Aryl-[1,3] Benzoxazine Derivatives Using Vilsmeier Reagen
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Reducing of ethyl 4-((2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzylidene)amino)benzoate (1) afford ethyl 4-((2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzyl) amino)benzoate (2). Reaction of this compound with Vilsmeier reagent affords novel 2-chloro-[1,3] benzoxazine ring (3). The corresponding acid hydrazide of compound 3 was synthesized from reaction of compound (3) with hydrazine hydrate. Newly series of hydrazones(5a–i) were synthesized from reaction of acid hydrazide with various aryl aldehydes. Antibacterial activity of the hydrazones wassecerned utilizing gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria. Compound (5b) and (5c) exhibited significant antibacterial ability against both gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria, while the compounds(5a) showed mild antibacterial activit

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Impact of omega 3 alone or in combination with irinotecan on bone marrow and spleen of rats: in vivo study
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Abstract

Objectives: The present study designed to explore the genotoxicity through measurement of Mitotic index in bone marrow and the spleen cells, as possible mechanism of bone marrow and spleen toxicity that induced by irinotecan; and to describe the protective actions of omega 3 against irinotecan induced genotoxicity in bone marrow and the spleen of rats.

Methods: Twenty four (24) rats (Sprague-Dawley) were randomly divided into four groups: Group Ӏ, rats  received single oral daily dose of distilled water (2 ml/kg) for 25 days (negative control group); Group ӀӀ (irinotecan-treated), receiv

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Vitae
Evaluation of Cytotoxic effect of Moringa peregrina seeds on Oral Cancer, CAL 27 Cell Line and Red Blood Cells Hemolysis
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Background: Moringa peregrina Forssk is a well-known plant in ethnomedicine due to its widespread uses in various diseases like cough, wound healing, rhinitis, fever, and detoxification. The plant seeds contain compounds that are cytotoxic to many cancer cells. During the therapeutic use of plants via the oral route, some compounds present in the plants may be cytotoxic to normal cell lines and red blood cells. Objective: This study was the first report of investigation of the cytotoxic profile on oral cancer, CAL 27, cell line, and hemolytic activities on human erythrocytes of Moringa peregrina seeds ethanolic extract (MPSE). Methods: MPSE was screened for its cytotoxic effect against oral cancer, CAL 27, cell line using 3-(4, 5-di

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Application of H-Point Standard Addition Method in Kinetic- Spectrophotometric Determination of Phenylephrine in Nasal Drops and Tetracycline in Capsule
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A new simultaneous spectrophotometric-kinetic method was developed to determine phenylephrine (PHEN) and tetracycline (TETR) via H-point standard addition method (HPSAM). The proposed procedures rely on the measurements of the difference in the rate of charge-transfer (CT) reaction between each of PHEN and TETR as electron donors with p-Bromanil (p-Br) as an electron acceptor. Different experimental factors which affect the extent of the complex formation were investigated by monitoring the value of absorbance at 446 nm. Time pair of 50 -100 sec was selected and employed, among different examined pairs since it results in the highest accuracy for HPSAM-plot. Linear calibration graphs in the concentration ranges of 10.0-40.0 and 10.0–50.0

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Matter Density Distributions, Root-mean Square Radii and Elastic Electron Scattering Form Factors of Some Exotic Nuclei (17B, 11Li, 8He)
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The two-neutron halo-nuclei (17B, 11Li, 8He) was investigated using a two-body nucleon density distribution (2BNDD) with two frequency shell model (TFSM). The structure of valence two-neutron of 17B  nucleus in a pure (1d5/2) state and in a pure (1p1/2) state for  11L and 8He nuclei. For our tested nucleus, an efficient (2BNDD's) operator for point nucleon system folded with two-body correlation operator's functions was used to investigate nuclear matter density distributions, root-mean square (rms) radii, and elastic electron scattering form factors. In the nucleon-nucleon forces the correlation took account of

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Comparisons of Mechanical Properties of sub-mm Lead Based and Lead Free Based Solder Using in Manufacturing of Printed Circuits
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Abstract

This study investigates the mechanical compression properties of tin-lead and lead-free alloy spherical balls, using more than 500 samples to identify statistical variability in the properties in each alloy. Isothermal aging was done to study and compare the aging effect on the microstructure and properties.

The results showed significant elastic and plastic anisotropy of tin phase in lead-free tin based solder and that was compared with simulation using a Crystal Plasticity Finite Element (CPEF) method that has the anisotropy of Sn installed. The results and experiments were in good agreement, indicating the range of values expected with anisotropic properties.

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