The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
Addressed this research the impact of intelligence emotional dimensions of the main(self awareness, and self-management, and social awareness, and relationship management) in the performance excellence the university(performance optimization, and strategic development) this is by middling the styles decision making which are (rational and intuitive, and dependent, and spontaneous, and avoidant), and Go search of an intellectual dilemma raise fundamental questions revolve around the search was to answer those questions through a theoretical framework for search variables first and test models of the relationship and second through the impact six hypotheses President.The objective of the research to make sure the contr
... Show MoreHigher education is important because it creates and develops human capital and provides qualified human cadres, which requires restructuring government spending so that an increase in funding allocated to education is brought about. During the period 1990-2020, government spending was weak on educational institutions in Iraq, which led to a decline in The role of these institutions in the economic development of the country. The highest percentage of spending on higher education of GDP was 0.47% in 2007 and the lowest was 0.01% in 2005. The number of public universities reached 35, and the number of private universities and colleges reached 64 universities and private colleges in 2020. This was accompanied by an increase in the number of s
... Show MoreOrganizations nowadays, whether public or private organizations, productive or service (such as banks), face major challenges as a result of rapid and continuous changes, and in front of these challenges traditional management operations and tools become unable to make the organization able to work, which makes it imperative for these organizations to follow the methods and management practices, including the proposed knowledge risk management and strategic direction so that it can elevate its actions at the level of developments in reality, in the sense that these organizations and in the light of environmental developments to characterize their strategic direction as an intellectual approach characterized by mo
... Show MoreIs a high degree of economic freedom an important part in the development of the economies of developing countries in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twentieth century and the atheist. This is because a test subject (deltoid analysis of the relationship between the degree of economic freedom and foreign trade of selected developing countries for the period
( 1990 -2005) to determine the degree of economic freedom in foreign trade promotion in Singapore and Turkey. The research recommends a number of recommendations, the most important is the responsibility of the Ministry of Planning in Iraq that is providing the necessary data for the Fraser Institute, the aim of increasing cooperation
In recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil s
... Show MoreThe phenomenon of spatial variation in the economic, social and urban development levels is considered prevalent in most of the economic and social systems,this relates to the concentration of most of those activities in certain regions and because of their rarity in other regions , that led to the emergence of the problem of the sharp contrast between the most developed areas and least developed areas within the same region or within the regions of the same country,
Reduction of this variables , in addition to the development of areas through following up and relying on an effective regional development enabling to reduce unemployment as well as to stop the migration of the unplanned for population,
And the ideal use of available
The issue of the Circular Economy is not a new issue to several countries, especially the developed ones. Here in Iraq it is considered newly introduced, despite the few attempts to establish projects that concern recycling most of them were doomed to fail, due to two main reasons: the first one is the financial and administrative corruption widespread in all departments of the country, the second one is the priorities of public spending. It is well known that Iraq was subjected to two major attacks, the ISIS entry attack in 2014 to Iraq. ISIS occupied about a third of Iraqi lands which resulted in a collapse in oil prices, as Iraq depends almost entirely on oil revenues in its budget which is the second attack. This made the Iraqi governme
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will study non parametric model when the response variable have missing data (non response) in observations it under missing mechanisms MCAR, then we suggest Kernel-Based Non-Parametric Single-Imputation instead of missing value and compare it with Nearest Neighbor Imputation by using the simulation about some difference models and with difference cases as the sample size, variance and rate of missing data.