The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic relationship rather than confining it to the stochastic error term. The fuzzy parameters are estimated using a Quadratic Programming (QP) algorithm, and the proposed model is empirically applied to quarterly data for the Iraqi economy over the period (2013-2025). The results provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance, alongside a persistent structural tendency toward fiscal deficits. Government revenues are shown to have a positive impact on the fiscal balance, however, this impact is uncertain due to revenue uncertainty and resource efficiency. The results of stability tests reveal the dynamic stability of the model, suggesting the existence of a self-equilibrating mechanism. Additionally, the difference between the ARDL and FARDL models shows a descriptive superiority of the fuzzy model in terms of forecasting performance (in-sample and out-sample) with statistically equivalent predictive efficiency. At the same time, the FARDL model offers a more flexible representation with the possibility of interval estimates and multiple scenarios, thus improving the analysis of fiscal sustainability under structural uncertainty.
The using of the parametric models and the subsequent estimation methods require the presence of many of the primary conditions to be met by those models to represent the population under study adequately, these prompting researchers to search for more flexible models of parametric models and these models were nonparametric models.
In this manuscript were compared to the so-called Nadaraya-Watson estimator in two cases (use of fixed bandwidth and variable) through simulation with different models and samples sizes. Through simulation experiments and the results showed that for the first and second models preferred NW with fixed bandwidth fo
... Show MorePurpose: This research seeks to provide a point of view based on the creation of sustainable value to the customer of the banks in the context of total quality management and relationship marketing. It aims to develop a model to measure the value of sustainable customer peduncular under total quality management PAL (administrative leadership, involvement of employees, continuous improvement, process improvement, staff training), through the mediation of relationship marketing and objective dimensions (administrative leadership, involvement of employees, continuous improvement, improving processes , staff training), and to explore any of the variables and dimensions more influential in the creation of sustainable value to the cust
... Show MoreTo determine the relationship between celiac disease and reproductive disorder, twenty two women with recurrent spontaneous abortion (18-35) years have been investigated from the period 2017/11/1 – 2018/2/1 and compared wih twenty two parentally healthy women. All studied groups were carried out to measure antitissue transglutaminase IgA and IgG antibodies by Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique, There were a highly significant differences (P < 0.01) in the concentration of anti TtG IgA and IgG Ab compared to control group, while there was non-significant differences (P > 0.05) in the concentration of anti TtG IgA according to the age group and there was a significant difference (P < 0.05) in the concentration of anti TtG I
... Show MoreThere were many ideas and opinions on the linkage between growth and economic reform in both developed and developing countries. The relationship is, of course, existed. Therefore, this research comes to analyses it in the Iraqi economy. This study is based on a hypothesis that the economic reformation in Iraq leads to lag level of growth with the of high rates of inflation. However, the study is designed to be included five sections. It found a positive relationship between the economic reformation and slowing of economic growth, in which the specified hypothesis is not fit to the economic reality in Iraq after 2003 &
... Show MoreAbstract
Suffering the human because of pressure normal life of exposure to several types of heart disease as a result of due to different factors. Therefore, and in order to find out the case of a death whether or not, are to be modeled using binary logistic regression model
In this research used, one of the most important models of nonlinear regression models extensive use in the modeling of applications statistical, in terms of heart disease which is the binary logistic regression model. and then estimating the parameters of this model using the statistical estimation methods, another problem will be appears in estimating its parameters, as well as when the numbe
... Show MoreBackground: Obesity represents a clear and
present danger to the health of children and
adolescents. Its prevalence among American
youth has doubled in the past 3 decades, and
there are now more overweight and obese
adults in the United States than adults of
normal weight.
Objectives of the study:
1- Finding whether screen watching among
adolescents has an effect on increasing
prevalence overweight and obesity.
2- The effect of other variables like physical
activity, eating in front of screen, eating under
stress on obesity and overweight among the
subjects sample.
Patients &Methods: During 3 months period a
cross sectional survey was conducted on 4
high schools at Baghdad with total
Blood and urine samples were collected from 203 patients to study the relationship between Diabetes mellitus and urinary tract infections (UTI). Blood and urine specimens were subjected for estimation of random blood sugar, in addition to detection of the most pathogen bacteria which cause urinary tract infection in diabetic patients. The study included the detection of bacterial sensitivity to some antibiotics used in treating urinary tract infections, and also included the study of genetic basis which cause both types of diabetes mellitus. The results can be summarized as follows: The incidence of type ? diabetes in males was (35.8%), and (45.9%) in females . and type 2 diabetes in males was (49.6%), while in females was (40.16%).The inc
... Show Morehe public federal budget of the state includes estimated figures for state revenues and expenditures for the next fiscal year. The estimation process is one of the main parts of the preparation of the general budget of the state and the accuracy in the estimation of revenues and expenditures of the most important principles that should be based on the process of making estimates and should not overestimate the assessment process to ensure the availability of funds in the future in all cases, which lead to unfair distribution of allocations, so the research aims to study The case of preparing the budget in the Directorate and how to estimate the expenditure in, by the analysis of operating budgets and identify deviations in the implementa
... Show MoreAbstract:
The use of economic resources enjoyed Iraq by especially oil resources, which constitute the main source of financial revenue, would the economic surplus outside the oil sector increases by mobilizing and rallying the labor power and turn it into an access capitalism, , was the cause of "the inaction of the productive sectors of the economy, made the investment planning process and even investment in human capital was not rationality with the increasing number of unemployed, particularly certificates and specializations high campaign, direction of the government towards market liberalism after 2003 through the, was focused not follow a clear economic policies, and the absence of planning
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