In this article, a numerical method integrated with statistical data simulation technique is introduced to solve a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations with multiple random variable coefficients. The utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with central divided difference formula of finite difference (FD) method is repeated n times to simulate values of the variable coefficients as random sampling instead being limited as real values with respect to time. The mean of the n final solutions via this integrated technique, named in short as mean Monte Carlo finite difference (MMCFD) method, represents the final solution of the system. This method is proposed for the first time to calculate the numerical solution obtained for each subpopulation as a vector distribution. The numerical outputs are tabulated, graphed, and compared with previous statistical estimations for 2013, 2015, and 2030, respectively. The solutions of FD and MMCFD are found to be in good agreement with small standard deviation of the means, and small measure of difference. The new MMCFD method is useful to predict intervals of random distributions for the numerical solutions of this epidemiology model with better approximation and agreement between existing statistical estimations and FD numerical solutions.
Abstract
The Non - Homogeneous Poisson process is considered as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).
This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto , to estimate th
... Show MoreThe spectral characteristics and the nonlinear optical properties of the mixed donor (C-480) acceptor (Rh-6G) have been determined. The spectral characteristics are studied by recording their absorption and fluorescence spectra. The nonlinear optical properties were measured by z-scan technique, using Q-switched Nd: YAG laser with 1064 nm wavelength. The results showed that the optimum concentration of acceptor is responsible for increasing the absorption and the emission bandwidth of donor to full range and to 242 nm respectively by the energy transfer process, also the efficiency of the process was increased by increasing the donor and acceptor concentration. The obtained nonlinear properties results of the mixture C-480/ Rh-6G showed
... Show MoreIn this paper the variable structure control theory is utilized to derive a discontinuous controller to the magnetic levitation system. The magnetic levitation system model is considered uncertain, which subjected to the uncertainty in system parameters, also it is open-loop unstable and strongly nonlinear. The proposed variable structure control to magnetic levitation system is proved, and the area of attraction is determined. Additionally, the chattering, which induced due to the discontinuity in control law, is attenuated by using a non-smooth approximate. With this approximation the resulted controller is a continuous variable structure controller with a determined steady state error according to the selected control
... Show MoreThis paper designed a fault tolerance for soft real time distributed system (FTRTDS). This system is designed to be independently on specific mechanisms and facilities of the underlying real time distributed system. It is designed to be distributed on all the computers in the distributed system and controlled by a central unit.
Besides gathering information about a target program spontaneously, it provides information about the target operating system and the target hardware in order to diagnose the fault before occurring, so it can handle the situation before it comes on. And it provides a distributed system with the reactive capability of reconfiguring and reinitializing after the occurrence of a failure.
This paper present a study about effect of the random phase and expansion of the scale sampling factors to improve the monochrome image hologram and compared it with previous produced others. Matlab software is used to synthesize and reconstruction hologram.
This study was for searching for Cholera Bacteria serotype which causes epidemiology Cholera in the 2007 in a fast method which contains (Rapid Visual Test) (Crystal V.C.) which was used for the first time in Iraq to diagnosis of Cholera Bacteria & compared with the traditional bacteriology method. The Cholera disease is one of the most dangerous epidemiological diseases which lead to death with a percentage of (50 – 70) % in the severe cases for untreated patients . For this purpose, 100 samples of stool from the patients from a (13) hospitals in Baghdad Governorate in the period from August to the end of December. The Cholera was diagnosis in two methods, 1st method was the fast method using the nitrocellulose which is coated with anti-
... Show MoreIn high-dimensional semiparametric regression, balancing accuracy and interpretability often requires combining dimension reduction with variable selection. This study intro- duces two novel methods for dimension reduction in additive partial linear models: (i) minimum average variance estimation (MAVE) combined with the adaptive least abso- lute shrinkage and selection operator (MAVE-ALASSO) and (ii) MAVE with smoothly clipped absolute deviation (MAVE-SCAD). These methods leverage the flexibility of MAVE for sufficient dimension reduction while incorporating adaptive penalties to en- sure sparse and interpretable models. The performance of both methods is evaluated through simulations using the mean squared error and variable selection cri
... Show MoreSentiment analysis refers to the task of identifying polarity of positive and negative for particular text that yield an opinion. Arabic language has been expanded dramatically in the last decade especially with the emergence of social websites (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, etc.). Several studies addressed sentiment analysis for Arabic language using various techniques. The most efficient techniques according to the literature were the machine learning due to their capabilities to build a training model. Yet, there is still issues facing the Arabic sentiment analysis using machine learning techniques. Such issues are related to employing robust features that have the ability to discrimina
... Show MoreThis work is concerned with building a three-dimensional (3D) ab-initio models that is capable of predicting the thermal distribution of laser direct joining processes between Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and stainless steel 304(st.st.304). ANSYS® simulation based on finite element analysis (FEA) was implemented for materials joining in two modes; laser transmission joining (LTJ) and conduction joining (CJ). ANSYS® simulator was used to explore the thermal environment of the joints during joining (heating time) and after joining (cooling time). For both modes, the investigation is carried out when the laser spot is at the middle of the joint width, at 15 mm from the commencement point (joint edge) at traveling time of 3.75 s. Process par
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