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FORECASTING THE EXCHANGE RATES OF THE US DOLLAR AGAINST THE IRAQI DINAR USING THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY IN TIME SERIES WITH PRACTICAL APPLICATION
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The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022

Scopus
Publication Date
Sat Jan 04 2025
Journal Name
University Of Kirkuk Journal For Administrative And Economic Science
Anova For Fuzzy Data With Practical in The Medical Field
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This research study Blur groups (Fuzzy Sets) which is the perception of the most modern in the application in various practical and theoretical areas and in various fields of life, was addressed to the fuzzy random variable whose value is not real, but the numbers Millbh because it expresses the mysterious phenomena or uncertain with measurements are not assertive. Fuzzy data were presented for binocular test and analysis of variance method of random Fuzzy variables , where this method depends on a number of assumptions, which is a problem that prevents the use of this method in the case of non-realized.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Gulf Economist
The Bayesian Estimation in Competing Risks Analysis for Discrete Survival Data under Dynamic Methodology with Application to Dialysis Patients in Basra/ Iraq
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Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Ecology
Horizontal variability of some soil properties in wasit governorate by using time series analysis
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Scopus (2)
Scopus
Publication Date
Tue Mar 22 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-turath University College
The Turkish role in the US-Iran Crisis (2017-2020)
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New developments imposed different patterns of interactions between major international powers and Iran during 2018, ranging to varying degrees between cooperation and tension, the most important of which is the new measures taken by the United States to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and impose new US sanctions on Iran, which in turn insisted on not responding to pressure to which they are exposed to make changes in their policies and to negotiate again about the main contentious files, especially the nuclear program and ballistic missiles, and the roles they play for crisis countries, especially supporting some armed organizations in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. These differences have put the international forces before difficult

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Trust Factor of Oman’s Diplomacy in the US-Iranian Conflict
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من أجل فهم دور سلطنة عُمان في المفاوضات الإقليمية والوساطة وحل النزاعات يجب تقدير سياستها الخارجية، والتي سيتم تقييمها من أجل فهم كيفية نشأتها وتشكلها وأثر ذلك على مواقفها السياسية طوال سنوات حكم السلطان الراحل قابوس بن سعيد. وتقع عُمان في منطقة مضطربة، وقد طُلب منها في عدة مناسبات أن تعمل كمفاوض أو وسيط في الصراعات الإقليمية. سيبحث هذا البحث في كيفية قيام السلطنة بالوساطة الدولية، خاصة في الصراع الأمريكي

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Multi-variables Multi -sites Model for Forecasting Hydrological Data Series
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A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the performance of the stock market in light of inflation : empirical research in the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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Abstract:

                The aim of this research to try to determine the type of expected relationship between inflation as the explanatory variable and market performance as a dependent variable, for that used data issued and published by the Central Bank of Iraq and the Iraqi Stock Exchange for a sample consisting of (159) observations using the intentional or intentional sampling method for the period extending between the months (January 2010 to March 2023), in the light of each of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index, the number of traded shares and the number of market capital shares to ex

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use aggregate slide estimate additive splines estimation for the diagnosis of non-linear composite model self-regression with practical application
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Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines  estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property  to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Apr 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Management using the Six Sigma approach to cost rationalization of activities : Application in the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory
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The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Wavelet Analysis For Sunspot Time Series
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Abstract

In this research we study the wavelet characteristics for the important time series known as Sunspot, on the aim of verifying the periodogram that other researchers had reached by the spectral transform, and noticing the variation in the period length on one side and the shifting on another.

A continuous wavelet analysis is done for this series and the periodogram in it is marked primarily. for more accuracy, the series is partitioned to its the approximate and the details components to five levels, filtering these components by using fixed threshold on one time and independent threshold on another, finding the noise series which represents the difference between

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Crossref