The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Increasingly, public organizations in the federal state are required to work together, as well as to work with others to achieve their objectives. In Iraq there are two levels of organizations, including federal and local, and these organizations have been forced to work for many years in an environment in which the responsibility for service delivery is shared between policy makers and service providers, and between local governments and the federal government. It is sometimes difficult to manage the relationship between these organizations (federal and local) and do not always provide the best possible outcome of this relationship. This paper reviews how to manage the relationship between local administrations and
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The research aims to study the effect of the commodity dumping phenomenon that Iraq suffered after 2003 on the consumption pattern of individuals, towards the acquisition of non-essential goods (luxury). To achieve our goal we relied on the questionnaire as a main tool for obtaining information related to the research, and it was distributed on a random sample of consumers in the city of Baghdad with 250 questionnaires. The answers of the research sample were analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS). The percentage weights and the factorial analysis method were used also to arrange the variables that affected on changing consumption patterns. The research reached a set of conclusions:
... Show MoreA nano manganese dioxide (MnO2) was electrodeposited galvanostatically onto a carbon fiber (CF) surface using the simple method of anodic electrodeposition. The composite electrode was characterized by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Very few studies investigated the efficiency of this electrode for heavy metals removal, especially chromium. The electrosorption properties of the nano MnO2/CF electrode were examined by removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solutions. NaCl concentration, pH, and cell voltage were studied and optimized using the Box-Behnken design (BDD) to investigate their effects and interactions on the electrosorption process. The results showed that the
... Show MoreThe technological development in the field of information and communication has been accompanied by the emergence of security challenges related to the transmission of information. Encryption is a good solution. An encryption process is one of the traditional methods to protect the plain text, by converting it into inarticulate form. Encryption implemented can be occurred by using some substitute techniques, shifting techniques, or mathematical operations. This paper proposed a method with two branches to encrypt text. The first branch is a new mathematical model to create and exchange keys, the proposed key exchange method is the development of Diffie-Hellman. It is a new mathematical operations model to exchange keys based on prime num
... Show MoreThe paper presents a neural synchronization into intensive study in order to address challenges preventing from adopting it as an alternative key exchange algorithm. The results obtained from the implementation of neural synchronization with this proposed system address two challenges: namely the verification of establishing the synchronization between the two neural networks, and the public initiation of the input vector for each party. Solutions are presented and mathematical model is developed and presented, and as this proposed system focuses on stream cipher; a system of LFSRs (linear feedback shift registers) has been used with a balanced memory to generate the key. The initializations of these LFSRs are neural weights after achiev
... Show MoreThe Exponentiated Lomax Distribution is considered one of the most commonly used continuous distribution which has a major role in analysing and modelling life time data. Therefore, A family was formed for the Exponential Lomax Distribution by introducing two new distributions as special case of the Exponentiated Lomax Distribution: (Modified Exponentiated Lomax Distribution (MELD) and Restricted Exponentiated Lomax Distribution (RELD. Furthermore, to assess the usefulness and flexibility, the two distributions were applied upon simulation study besides real application with real data set. The simulation results clearly shown the flexible performance of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameter. Also, the real applicat
... Show MoreMA Mahde, HAA Kadhim, HN Tarish…, Pakistan Heart Journal, 2023 - Cited by 4
Monetary sterilization policies are one of the modern trends of monetary policy in rentier countries, specifically to confront the positive shocks in foreign assets flowing into the national economy and the impact of these shocks on monetary and real variables. And that the Central Bank contains these emergency increases in foreign exchange with the aim of avoiding the impact of this increase on the official local currency through its three main monetary tools, which are the rediscount rate, the legal reserve, and open market operations. As well as the relationship between the central bank and the objective of external balance, which is reflected in the balance of payments balance, the central bank resorts to managing the exchange rate
... Show MoreThis research investigated the importance and priorities of the project overhead costs in Iraq via a questionnaire using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process technique (FAHP). Using this technique is very important in the uncertain circumstances as in our country. The researcher reached to frame an equation through the results of the priorities of weights include the percentages of each of the main items of the project overhead costs. The researcher tested this equation by applying it to one of the completed projects and the results showed suitability for the application. The percentages of the (salaries, grants, and incentives) and (fieldwork requirements) in equation represent approximately two-thirds of project overhe
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