The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The first section of this research discussed the manner of the research from many sides like the problem it faces, importance of it , its targets ,boundaries, the way to collect and get information's and its assumption.
When the second chapter discussed the press – manufacturing and the development ,importance and types of newspapers, also its merits and weaknesses.
The third chapter talked about the scientific side and how to choose an assumption for the research . as it talked also about the apparent honest and stability tests that help in analyzing the research until getting results and so the right assumption for the research will be chosen.
And finally, the fourth chapter put highlight on the be
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... Show MoreThe objective Effect of Internal and External Environment and its Psychological & Practical Reflection on the Political Decision-Making Process
In this research, the covariance estimates were used to estimate the population mean in the stratified random sampling and combined regression estimates. were compared by employing the robust variance-covariance matrices estimates with combined regression estimates by employing the traditional variance-covariance matrices estimates when estimating the regression parameter, through the two efficiency criteria (RE) and mean squared error (MSE). We found that robust estimates significantly improved the quality of combined regression estimates by reducing the effect of outliers using robust covariance and covariance matrices estimates (MCD, MVE) when estimating the regression parameter. In addition, the results of the simulation study proved
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... Show MoreThe earthly music has a clear influence on the religious music in the musical culture to read and recite the Holy Quran in the city of Baghdad. This research deals with this subject in an attempt to reveal the influence of the Iraqi maqam in the recitation of Hafiz Khalil Ismail. The methodological framework of the research included the problem of research and its importance as it is useful to the Iraqi schools concerned with the recitation of the Holy Quran in Iraq. The theoretical framework included three sections that serve the literature of its subject: the first is (Iraqi maqam), the second is (the recitation of the Holy Quran) and the third is (the biography of Hafez Khalil Ismail).
The most important procedures
... Show MoreThe Fauqi field is located about 50Km North-East Amara town in Missan providence in Iraq. Fauqi field has 1,640 MMbbl STOIIP, which lies partly in Iran. Oil is produced from both Mishrif and Asmari zones. Geologically, the Fauqi anticline straddles the Iraqi/Iranian border and is most probably segmented by several faults. There are several reasons leading to drilling horizontal wells rather than vertical wells. The most important parameter is increasing oil recovery, particularly from thin or tight reservoir permeability. The Fauqi oil field is regarded as a giant field with approximately more than 1 billion barrels of proven reserves, but it has recently experienced low production rate problems in many of its existing wells. This study
... Show MoreThe construction industry in Iraq suffers from many problems, perhaps the most important of which is the delay in time and the increase in costs. Therefore, it was necessary to try to adopt a new methodology that would help in overcoming these problems. It was suggested to combine building information modeling with the agile management approach because this technique and methodology is modern and helps in reducing time and cost and improving quality. This paper aims to know the status of using Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Agile Project management (APM) in Iraq and to shed light on the merging of this integration, explaining the benefits, difficulties, and workflow practices, finding the most influencing factors on the tim
... Show MoreDrilling with casing (DWC) can be considered as a modern drilling technique in which both of drilling and casing operations done in the same time by using the casing to transfer the hydraulic and mechanical power to the bit instead of traditional drilling string. To overcome oil well control, minimizing the total cost through enhancing drilling efficiency, drilling with casing was proposed as an enabling technology.
Two surface sections (17 1/2 - and 12 1/4- inch) were drilled successfully in Rumaila oil field with casing strings which reached 655m and 1524m measured depths respectively.
By using DWC technique, the total drill/case phase time was reduced up to 20% comparing to conventional
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