The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract
This research deals with the technical of opening text during the critical
study about the poem of Al- ssiyab which is named ( city with out rain)
We chose this poem also to make connection with the western critical
theories.
Our study aims to explain the act of opening texts and critics and its
methods and directions in modern Arabic poetry.
It also aims to show the differences in the point of view between critics
and poetries.
The research depends on dimension vision of selective, and descriptive.
The study aimed to estimate the content of lead and determine the quality of the internal coating of metal cans through electrical conductivity as well as to determine the accuracy of the information card for some types of canned food that available in local markets. The information card test showed that all of these samples contained the name of the food, trade mark, country origin, weight, and components, as was indicated by the company producing in all of them except for the C12 sample which was otherwise, and the batch number was mentioned in all samples except for the C3 and C17 which was not clear and not mentioned in the C21, and the validity period was observed (produce and fini
... Show MoreThe research problem is that most of the construction projects exceed the planned value, due to the failure to implement the plans on time. The current study aims to monitor the implementation of the project and for each of the executed tasks of the table of quantities in order to detect deviations at the time they occur, evaluate the time and cost performance, and then identify the areas of waste and analyze the implementation of each task in order to diagnose the underlying problems and find possible and applicable solutions in the environment Iraqi. The research was applied in one of the companies specialized in the field of construction projects, and one of the most important conclusions reached is the possibility of applying
... Show MoreThe ration card system is a kind of support provided by the state to individuals through the provision of essential goods at subsidized prices during the period of war or crisis. For many years, the ration card was an essential source of food supplies to Iraqis, especially under the economic siege of the nineties, But after the events of 2003 and the passage of Iraq's political and economic changes required radical reforms in the ration card system according to the recipes of the International Monetary Fund. It was evident from the estimation of the demand function that the price did not have the greatest impact on this type of goods because the ration card items are subsidized by the government. There is also a
... Show MoreThe economy of a city has an important role not only in its establishment but also in its development. This is quite clear in the city of Baghdad throughout its history since its building in 762 A.D. In addition, most of its problems that the city is suffering from are basically related to not giving enough importance to the economic factors in the master planning of Baghdad since 1950’s. This may explain the failiars of master plans in dealing with the actual population growth and the city's inability to absorb such increases and interrelated and diverse activities which are negatively reflected on the economic variables particularly the effect on the land values, and the strong competitions amongst the land uses without previ
... Show MoreThe estimation of the parameters of linear regression is based on the usual Least Square method, as this method is based on the estimation of several basic assumptions. Therefore, the accuracy of estimating the parameters of the model depends on the validity of these hypotheses. The most successful technique was the robust estimation method which is minimizing maximum likelihood estimator (MM-estimator) that proved its efficiency in this purpose. However, the use of the model becomes unrealistic and one of these assumptions is the uniformity of the variance and the normal distribution of the error. These assumptions are not achievable in the case of studying a specific problem that may include complex data of more than one model. To
... Show MoreUnited nation determined many basic climatic effects which affect the crust of Earth.
And the most important one is the climatic change and its effect on environmental, economic,
social, and political effects. So, the amount of rain which is considered as one of climatic
changes in Iraq should be studied.So, this research explains the factors which affect rain, its
overall average, the variation in the amounts of rain, the amount of yearly rain and variation
in both yearly and monthly rains by using standard variation and yearly fluctuation.As a
result, it is concluded that the number of rainy days doesn't mean an increase in rains amount.
And there's variation in rains amount in all study areas which is contrastive
This research seeks to explore the impact of notifications on enhancing user engagement with websites, primarily through user subscriptions and their interaction with notifications on these websites. The significance of this study lies in its implications for crafting compelling headlines that capture users' attention, streamline their access to journalistic content, and align with the objectives and editorial policies of news websites. It sheds light on the factors influencing users' preferences for specific notifications and their engagement with content based on their individual interests, motivations, and the satisfaction derived from such interactions.
The researcher has reached several key findings, inc
Change the morphological characteristics with the change of the factors affecting it has been shown that the Tigris River has the characteristics of the morphology of the low values in terms of depth, width and perimeter wet and gradient which in turn affected the morphological and other characteristics in terms of the direction and pattern of runoff came through the study of 48 cross-section is taken of the Tigris River Year 2008 by section for each 1 km, it has been shown that the average width of the Tigris River does not exceed 221.1 meters and the average depth of 3.9 meters either wet ocean amounted to 268.9 meters and changed the cross-section area of the last section at a rate of 4594.3 square meters, and through the study turned
... Show MoreThis study aims to observe the effect of melatonin implantation and exposure to different light colors and their interaction on productive in local Iraqi chicken. This study was conducted at the poultry farm of the Department of Animal Production/College of Agriculture/University of Baghdad/Abu Ghraib, on 252 birds (180 females and 72 males). The birds were divided into three sections (white, red and green) each section contains two lines, one of which has been planted melatonin under the skin of the neck of birds and the other has not been planted hormone. The results of the study showed significant improvement in productive traits such as egg proportion rate, egg weight, cumulative eggs number, egg mass and feed conversion rate. That the
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