The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Financial fraud remains an ever-increasing problem in the financial industry with numerous consequences. The detection of fraudulent online transactions via credit cards has always been done using data mining (DM) techniques. However, fraud detection on credit card transactions (CCTs), which on its own, is a DM problem, has become a serious challenge because of two major reasons, (i) the frequent changes in the pattern of normal and fraudulent online activities, and (ii) the skewed nature of credit card fraud datasets. The detection of fraudulent CCTs mainly depends on the data sampling approach. This paper proposes a combined SVM- MPSO-MMPSO technique for credit card fraud detection. The dataset of CCTs which co
... Show MoreIn the analysis of multiple linear regression, the problem of multicollinearity and auto-correlation drew the attention of many researchers, and given the appearance of these two problems together and their bad effect on the estimation, some of the researchers found new methods to address these two problems together at the same time. In this research a comparison for the performance of the Principal Components Two Parameter estimator (PCTP) and The (r-k) class estimator and the r-(k,d) class estimator by conducting a simulation study and through the results and under the mean square error (MSE) criterion to find the best way to address the two problems together. The results showed that the r-(k,d) class estimator is the best esti
... Show MoreProbit analysis is a type of regression used to analyze the relationship between a stimulus and the quantal response. Allelopathy refers to direct or indirect negative or positive effects of one plant on another through the release of chemical compounds into the environment. This study was carried out to apply probit analysis in investigating the allelopathic effects of the leaves aqueous extracts of apple of Sodom [Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T.] on the inhibition of seed germination of African rattlebox (Crotalaria saltiana Andr.). A laboratory experiments were carried out at the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Gezira, Sudan in season 2014/15. Ten concentrations (2.3, 4.6
... Show MoreAdipokines are associated with insulin resistance and obesity-related metabolic
disorders in many diseases. The levels of Lipocalin-2 and Retinol binding protein-4
were evaluated in sera of patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) to study the
association between them and the inflammatory state as established by high levels of
C - reactive protein and with atherogenicity. Serum Lipocalin-2 and Retinol binding
protein-4 levels measured in 73 subjects: 48 patients with T2DM with the mean
level of C- reactive protein 23.989 mg/dL. For comparison, 25 age- and gendermatched
control participants enrolled with C- reactive protein CRP level 1.476
mg/dL. The results showed that circulating Lipocalin-2, and Retinol binding prot
Receipt date:2/17/2021 acceptance date:3/16/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Objective: This paper investigates the contradictions in the decision-making process of the United States, which historically proven to be successful policies in the short term, but in the long term proven to be wanting and failure. Methodology: The paper uses descriptive, historical, comparative method. A
... Show MoreThe study aims at finding out the effect of the lead time strategy on the first intermediate class pupils' achievement in geography The partial experimental design of two groups, experimental and control, with pre-post tests is used. The sample is represented in (73) female pupils. The sample is divided into two groups (37) experimental group and (36) control one. The sam ple is selected from first intermediate class pupils ( Al Batol intermediate school for girls) Baghdad Al-karkh-3, for academic year 2015-2016 The researcher has equalized the two groups in several variables: the previous achievement tests, intelligence, age in months, the scores of geography test of first course
The aim of this research is to recognize the tasks undertaken by the headmasters of intermediate schools concerning time- administration, in accordance to the viewpoints of the headmasters of intermediate schools in the Administration of Education of Al-Karkh the Third. The sample of this research consists of (60) headmasters and &n
... Show MoreTime series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).
The volume of go
... Show MoreA disease of the reproductive system known as "infertility" is characterized by the inability to conceive after twelve months or more of sexual activity. This study was carried out to investigate the level of the DAZ protein in “Azoospermia” Iraqi patients. One hundred and fifty human blood samples were collected from different regions in Baghdad governorate include (private medicals Labs and “high institute for infertility diagnosis” assisted reproductive techniques and Kamal Al- Samara'ay IVF Hospital). The control group (fertile) consists of 50 males with an age range between 22-51 years old, while the patient (infertile group) consists of 100 sample males with ages ranging between 25-51 years old. The correlation of mean age for
... Show MoreBackground: A role for vitamin D deficiency in Parkinson disease (PD) has recently been suggested.
Objective:: To estimate the state of vitamin D in PD with an age-matched healthy control.
Type of the study: A case control study.
Method: The study randomly comparison of plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH] D) concentrations of collected samples in a clinical neurology department ward / Baghdad teaching hospital / Medical City and Parkinson disease movement disorder clinic. Participants were registered into the study from October 2015 to October 2016. We was study serum vitamin D level in 40 consecutive patients with
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