The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
In the analysis of multiple linear regression, the problem of multicollinearity and auto-correlation drew the attention of many researchers, and given the appearance of these two problems together and their bad effect on the estimation, some of the researchers found new methods to address these two problems together at the same time. In this research a comparison for the performance of the Principal Components Two Parameter estimator (PCTP) and The (r-k) class estimator and the r-(k,d) class estimator by conducting a simulation study and through the results and under the mean square error (MSE) criterion to find the best way to address the two problems together. The results showed that the r-(k,d) class estimator is the best esti
... Show MoreTime series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).
The volume of go
... Show MoreThe free piston engine linear generator (FPELG) is a simple engine structure with few components, making it a promising power generation system. However, because the engine works without a crankshaft, the handling of the piston motion control (PMC) is the main challenge influencing the stability and performance of FPELGs. In this article, the optimal operating parameters of FPELG for maximising engine performance and reducing exhaust gas emissions were studied. Moreover, the influence of adding hydrogen (H2) to compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel on FPELG performance was investigated. The influence of operating parameters on in-cylinder pressure was also analysed. The single-piston FPELG fuelled by CNG blended with H2 was used to run the expe
... Show MoreReceipt date:2/17/2021 acceptance date:3/16/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Objective: This paper investigates the contradictions in the decision-making process of the United States, which historically proven to be successful policies in the short term, but in the long term proven to be wanting and failure. Methodology: The paper uses descriptive, historical, comparative method. A
... Show MoreBackground: The displacement of artificial teeth during complete denture construction presents major processing errors in the occlusal vertical dimension which were verified at the previous trial denture stage. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of delay in processing after final flask closure and tension application on the vertical acrylic and porcelain teeth displacement of complete dentures constructed from heat cured acrylic and the results were compared with the conventional processing method. Materials and methods: forty samples of identical maxillary complete dentures were constructed from heat polymerized acrylic resin. These samples were subdivided into the following experimental subgroups in which each subgroup contai
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to recognize the tasks undertaken by the headmasters of intermediate schools concerning time- administration, in accordance to the viewpoints of the headmasters of intermediate schools in the Administration of Education of Al-Karkh the Third. The sample of this research consists of (60) headmasters and &n
... Show MoreThe study aims at finding out the effect of the lead time strategy on the first intermediate class pupils' achievement in geography The partial experimental design of two groups, experimental and control, with pre-post tests is used. The sample is represented in (73) female pupils. The sample is divided into two groups (37) experimental group and (36) control one. The sam ple is selected from first intermediate class pupils ( Al Batol intermediate school for girls) Baghdad Al-karkh-3, for academic year 2015-2016 The researcher has equalized the two groups in several variables: the previous achievement tests, intelligence, age in months, the scores of geography test of first course
The primary objective of this study was to identify the obstacles and problems encountered in the work of sports clubs according to the reality of the application of administrative automation. The present study was conducted in the sports club headquarters of Baghdad within the timeframe of October 2021 to December 2021. In the present study, a descriptive approach was used by the researchers in an analytical style according to the nature of the problem to be studied. The research community of the current study was composed of 100 sports clubs in the governorate of Baghdad. A total of 80 questionnaires were filled by the sample participants, who represented a percentage of 80% of the research community. After processin
... Show MoreThe construction industry plays a crucial role in the countries' economy, especially in the developed country. This point encourages the concerned institution to use new techniques and integrate many techniques and methods to maximize the benefits. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the use of risk management, value management, and building information modeling in the Iraqi construction industry. The evaluation process aims at two objectives. The direct objective was to evaluate the knowledge in risk management (RM), value management (VM), and building information modeling (BIM). The indirect objective was to support the participants with information related to the main items mentioned. The questionnaire
... Show MoreThis research basically gives an introduction about the multiple intelligence
theory and its implication into the classroom. It presents a unit plan based upon the
MI theory followed by a report which explains the application of the plan by the
researcher on the first class student of computer department in college of sciences/
University of Al-Mustansiryia and the teacher's and the students' reaction to it.
The research starts with a short introduction about the MI theory is a great
theory that could help students to learn better in a relaxed learning situation. It is
presented by Howard Gardener first when he published his book "Frames of
Minds" in 1983 in which he describes how the brain has multiple intelligen