The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
The tax base is one of the bases of the technical organizing of taxes, and that a good selection of the tax base effects the outcome of the tax and its fairness, and with the expansion of the tax range results a dangerous phenomenon called tax evasion, which became threaten the economies of countries and this phenomenon prevents the achievement of the state to its economic, political and social objectives which seeks to resolve this phenomenon and identifying all human and material potential and realize the real reasons that lie behind it. The researcher found that tax authorities are weak in terms of it the technical material and financial abilities, the analysis of data show that then is a significant reve
... Show MoreThe study aimed to identify the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of the social work profession in light of the Corona pandemic, and the sample consisted of (135) specialists. The study reached several results: the most important one is the degree of commitment of social workers working in the Ministry of Social Development to the professional principles of social service was great. The other result is the absence of statistically significant differences according to the variables of sex and place of residence. Moreover, the results also showed the absence of statistically significant differences in the principles of ( Acceptance o
... Show MoreIt highlights the importance of research through its focus on the assessment of tax for settling accounts Mmakhr medicines and annual statement controls and its role in determining the taxable income of the real tax Mmakhr drugs and achieve tax equity through tax settling accounts. The tax authority relies annual controls laid down by the tax settling accounts for Mmakhr medicines despite their inclusion bookkeeping business No. 2 system for the year 1985 average .ually this basis formulated hypothesis (that the adoption of the tax authority on annual controls in the tax settling accounts for Mmakhr medicine does not contribute in determining income taxable real tax for this Almmakr). the resulting search for a number of conclusions and
... Show MoreThis paper investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq after 2003 using the prisoner’s dilemma.The paper aims to determine the best form of coordination between these policies to achieve their goals; payoff matrix for both policies was constructed. To achieve the purpose, the quantitative approach was applied using several methods, including regression, building payoff matrices and decision analysis using a number of software.The results of the monetary policy payment function show that inflation rate has an inverse relationship with the auctions of selling foreign currency and a positive relationship with the government’s activity, while the fiscal policy function shows that real growth is positively
... Show MoreMost of drinking water consuming all over the world has been treated at the water treatment plant (WTP) where raw water is abstracted from reservoirs and rivers. The turbidity removal efficiency is very important to supply safe drinking water. This study is focusing on the use of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to predict the turbidity removal efficiency of Al-Wahda WTP in Baghdad city. The measured physico-chemical parameters were used to determine their effect on turbidity removal efficiency in various processes. The suitable formulation of the ANN model is examined throughout many preparations, trials, and steps of evaluation. The predict
Alienation is a feeling that inflicts people especially adolescents due to certain reasons. As they grow up, adolescents tend to face certain psychological disturbances. They somehow feel indifferent to their surroundings and hence it would be quite hard for them to express their notions in the reality world they live in. So they either rebel against society and become aggressive members or they might console themselves in an alienated world that they create in their minds.
This paper depicts J.D. Salinger's (1919-2010) novel The Catcher in the Rye where its protagonist, Holden Caulfield, is an adolescent who feels there is no linkage or connection with the traits of his society. He is a teenager who
... Show MoreA new distribution, the Epsilon Skew Gamma (ESΓ ) distribution, which was first introduced by Abdulah [1], is used on a near Gamma data. We first redefine the ESΓ distribution, its properties, and characteristics, and then we estimate its parameters using the maximum likelihood and moment estimators. We finally use these estimators to fit the data with the ESΓ distribution
Is the subject of the mind took a dimension in philosophy and psychology , and has cared psychologists this topic to a large extent , I started education institutions interest in the capabilities of intelligence since the early twentieth century , and the development of interest in them until he arrived to find Standards and Criteria to identify the degree IQ of any individual , and began to educational institutions interested in mental talent and talented .
The United States is the country chock first of these research projects , but they devoted all their attention on the wish talent mental and Gifted , until I got to the projects, the so-called time ( ( wars of the mind ) ) and projects Schools gifted
... Show MorePersonal intelligence is thinking about an other person , understanding him, have sympathy and differentiation between people, and to appreciate their own point of view, with the sensitivity to their motives, behavior, and goals, so this intelligence involves dealing with a person or group of persons effectively and in normal or logical manner.
Emotions management is to achieve emotional balance by controlling the emotions continuously, self disciplining, keeping away from excitement sources, and dealing with bad situations in constructive way to achieve the psychological stability .
- the study aims
The solar eclipse occurs at short time before the crescent birth moment when the moon near any one of moon orbit nodes It is important to determine the synchronic month which is used to find Higree date. The 'rules' of eclipses are:
Y= ± 0.997 of Earth radius , the solar eclipse is central and 0.997 < |Y| < 1.026 the umbra cone touch the surface of the Earth, where Y is the least distance from the axis of the moon's shadow to the center of the Earth in units of the equatorial radius of the Earth.
A new model have been designed, depend on the horizontal coordinates of the sun, moon, the distances Earth-Moon (rm), Earth-sun (rs) and |Y| to determine the date and times of total solar eclipse and the geogra
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