The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Advertising is an important and influential tool in various commercial operations, as it represents a means of communication that depends on influencing individuals or society as a whole, working on a link between the producer and the consumer, so the importance of advertising appears in two dimensions, the first is economic represented in its role in achieving economic growth for the facility, while the social dimension lies in its role By influencing the behaviors and ideas of individuals, and from here it appears to us the importance of formulating, organizing and designing the advertising message that advertising agencies resort to in their advertising campaigns. Orientation, definition, and raising the level of the advertising messa
... Show MoreThe sound effects in TV dramas achievements have become very important not only in terms of function and implementation, but at a greater and wider level in terms of artistic and aesthetic values, which are produced and employed in the most important world artistic achievements of drama, using the latest and most prominent technologies and equipment and according to the expressive and dramatic values expressed by these modern digital sound effects. Therefore, the researcher chose the aesthetic effect of digital sound effects in television drama to identify the aesthetic aspects provided by digital sound effects by employing them and their accompaniment for the image.
The researcher, therefor, divided this study into the methodolo
... Show MoreStubbornness is of the nature of the mean, we do not see it in the character of a person whose heart God filled with faith, wisdom and knowledge. And stubbornness does not fall into it except hearts that are arrogant, envious and objectionable, hearts that do not admit mistakes, and are not satisfied with the truth. Rather, you see humiliation,humiliation and shortcomings in returning to Him. He loves corruption * Except in humiliation, humiliation and shortcomings, the stubborn fall, even if they are proud when it is said to him, "Beware of God", pride takes him for sin, so his count is Hell, and his misery.
traces of stubbornness :key wor
... Show MoreThe problem with research in the question of whether art forms in the religious icon Byzantine, heiress docility and tradition craftsman arts civilizations of the above? ... And if you are well, you helped a quotation on the entry of strange ideas rampant within religious traditions, and are prompted to do Movement rejected prohibition, and the outbreak of the icons war? ... Or is it, in fact - and as researcher finds - the result of a need communication between the religious and the recipient organization in the establishment of a deliberative speech, be visible, along with reading it and audible? .. And lies the importance of this study is being added technical knowledge of the library that will enrich researchers and scholars in this
... Show MoreChristianity rejected abortion, since its inception, it took a luck against abortion, although there is no mention of it in the Bible, as there is no explicit text for abortion in the Old or New Testament and that the early Christians considered abortion a sin in all stages, and beliefs included abortion as an act of murder. What is forbidden in the Ten Commandments is “Thou shalt not kill”, and it is understood that killing here is either plundering one’s personal life (suicide) or stealing another person’s life (killing), or stealing the life of a person who has not yet been born (aborting fetuses). Based on the above, it was necessary for individuals to search for (Abortion in the Christian Religion / Descriptive Study) The resea
... Show Moreلم تعد ظاهرة غسل الأموال ظاهرةً محلیة أو إقلیمیة، فكل دولة معرضة لهذه الظاهرة لانتأثیراتها تستهدف الإنسان أینما كان باستهدافها الأوضاع الاقتصادیة والمالیة والاجتماعیة وحتىالأخلاقیة، سواء على المستوى الوطني أم على المستوي الدولي، فضلاً عن استغلال الاندماج الحاصلفي أسواق المال الدولیة والتطور التقني في الأنظمة المالیة لنقل الأموال المراد غسلها وتحریكها إلى إيمكان في العالم، وهو ما
Nineteenth century Gothic literature was deeply concerned with the threats against masculinity. Perhaps one of the most important changes that happened at that time was the emergence of the New Woman model which posed a great threat against masculinity and the male role in the Victorian society. Bram Stoker’s Dracula (1897) portrays female characters who embody this transition in female roles from the domestic wife to the New Woman. This paper focuses on the female characters Mina Murray and Lucy Westenra, their roles in their society, and the different fates they face at the end of the novel, with special focus on Mina’s transformation to the model of the New Woman.
This research discusses the developmental role of the social worker in providing care for children at risk. The research is desicriptive in nature include both the theoretical and field aspects. The theoretical aspect focuses on the characteristics and requirements of these children and what forms and implications are exposed to them by society, what is the developmental role of the social worker in the rehabilitation of this group. As for the field aspect, the study sample took a (40) social workers who working in Aiwa institutions inside Baghdad. A questionnaire of (14) questions was used as tool to collect the needed data.
Theatrical techniques took upon themselves the responsibility of building and organizing the theatrical form for the various forms of performances, and it was the important tool that the show makers could rely on in carrying out the various works at the audio-visual level, and lighting is one of the most important elements of the visual formation of the image in the show, as it is related to the visual process and what it can achieve in operations The contrast that constitutes the aesthetic and intellectual values of the theatrical show, especially since the process of adjusting the element of time and the timings for receiving or delivering, moving, and the movement of the actor is what can determine the rhythm of the scene, which in it
... Show Moreالأحكام القانونية للجرف القاري في القانون الدولي