The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract
In this research will be treated with a healthy phenomenon has a significant impact on different age groups in the community, but a phenomenon tonsillitis where they will be first Tawfiq model slope self moving averages seasonal ARMA Seasonal through systematic Xbox Cengnzla counter with rheumatoid tonsils in the city of Mosul, and for the period 2004-2009 with prediction of these numbers coming twelve months, has found that the specimen is the best representation of the data model is the phenomenon SARMA (1,1) * (2,1) 12 from the other side and explanatory variables using a maximum temperature and minimum temperature, sol
The evaluation of banks plays an important role in maintaining the interests of customers with the bank as well as providing continuous supervision and control by the Central Bank. The Central Bank of Iraq conducted an assessment of the Iraqi banks through the implementation of the CAMEL model during a certain period. This evaluation did not continue. The research provides continuity to the Central Bank's assessment and as a step to continue the evaluation process for all banks through the use of the CAMEL model. ROA and ROE by using the regression model for four Iraqi banks registered in the Iraqi market for securities during the period 2010-2016. The results showed that the capital and profitability indicators have a significan
... Show MoreThe selective information broadcasting service is one of the important services in libraries and information centers, as it is the link between the source and the beneficiary and between related sources, as it links similar sources through keywords and then sends them to beneficiaries, which contributes to reducing the time and effort spent by beneficiaries in obtaining sources or information. Therefore, the application of this service is an important matter and gives a positive indicator in the progress of the library towards the integration of its services. From this standpoint, this research came to answer some questions, including: 1. What are the outlets for beneficiaries (the research community) in obtaining information sources? 2. Wh
... Show MoreAbstract: The world witnessed the speed of a dangereuse virus now as Corona or Covid 19, which left many deaths in light of the inability of local and international Heath agencies to find a suitable vaccine to eliminate it and limit its spread, which negatively affected humain life in its various fields, and remains adopting healthy behaviors and habits A healthy Heath is the best solution to face the spread of the epidemic until realistic solutions that eliminate the virus are found.
The research aims to apply the activities of the green value chain as one of the modern administrative techniques that economic units resort to develop solutions to the pollution problems that occur due to the activity of economic units and their products that may cause damage to the environment as well as the waste of natural resources and to identify the production of environmentally friendly products and reduce the costs of environmental failure of both types Internal and external that may be borne by economic units such as taxes, fines and compensation due to non- observance of environmental requirements and the preservation of human health and protection of the environment.To achieve the goal of the research, the researchers re
... Show MoreThis research paper is about synoptic climate specifically with in the upper air layers
using upper air layers maps analysis which are maps of thickness for the level 1000 – 500
MB, that their high average ranges between 100 – 5600 M above surface. This research paper
focuses on studying special and temporal variations of the atmosphere thickness above Iraqaccording
to this study, it is concluded that atmosphere thickness above Iraq increases
towards south with an average of 100 M as compared with north of Iraq. Regarding the
temporal variations, it is concluded that atmosphere thickness during hot months. In July, for
example, the atmosphere thickness becomes thicker than in January with an average of
(250)M
The research entitled: (The Constructive Mutation of installation Systems in the Artworks of the artist Ali Al-Najar) has dealt with the concept of Mutation and its systematizations in installation in the artworks of (Ali Al-Najjar).
The research has four chapters: The first Chapter deals with the methodological framework represented by the basic problem of the research, that is concerned with the constructive mutation of installation systems.
The research aims at finding out the constructive mutation of installation systems in the artwork of ( Ali al-Najar). The research is limited by analyzing visual samples of (Ali Al-Najjar) artworks betwen (1967-1991)
The second chapter deals with the theoretical framework, it has five s
Construction projects have a special nature and affect them many factors making them exposed to multiple risks as a result of the length of the implementation period and the multiplicity of stages, starting from the decision stage through implementation until the final delivery, which leads to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of risk.
The process of analysis and risk management is one of the effective and productive methods that are used in managing the construction projects for the purpose of increasing the chances of ending the project successfully in terms of cost, time and quality and at the lowest possible problems.
The research aims first to the effective planning for analysis and risk managemen
... Show MoreThe concept of power despite its implications unclear and unknown was one of the most standards in international relations ambiguity and lack of clarity, however was more standards important and influential in the conduct of international relations, and since that time until today since that ambiguity in the meaning of power and use it as a factor of international relations factors and drive the engines were very different and irony from case to case and from researcher to another, but it may be classified force as the international status enjoyed by the state in the international ocean and here is a structure formed of forces posed by the state, such as economic and political nature of the political system and military power and concept
... Show MoreIn the theory of cinema genre, horror films are at the forefront of the list. It is one of the oldest genres that saw the light with the early emergence of cinema, taking advantage of literary works, especially Gothic literature and it continues to this day, but the third millennium has seen a marked increase in the number of films and recipients alike. There were many types within the same genre and there are many authors and varied topics, all seeking to spread terror and panic and fear in the hearts of viewers who are passionate about the type of horror. Although the fear and horror have been, throughout the ages, a challenge to the psychological balance and stability, as well as being a rejection and an opposition to the aesthetic ta
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