The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
In this work the design and application of a fuzzy logic controller to DC-servomotor is investigated. The proposed strategy is intended to improve the performance of the original control system by use of a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) as the motor load changes. Computer simulation demonstrates that FLC is effective in position control of a DC-servomotor comparing with conventional one.
Abstract
The Phenomenon of Extremism of Values (Maximum or Rare Value) an important phenomenon is the use of two techniques of sampling techniques to deal with this Extremism: the technique of the peak sample and the maximum annual sampling technique (AM) (Extreme values, Gumbel) for sample (AM) and (general Pareto, exponential) distribution of the POT sample. The cross-entropy algorithm was applied in two of its methods to the first estimate using the statistical order and the second using the statistical order and likelihood ratio. The third method is proposed by the researcher. The MSE comparison coefficient of the estimated parameters and the probability density function for each of the distributions were
... Show MoreIn this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the
... Show MoreElemental capture spectroscopy (ECS) is an important tool in the petroleum industry for determining the composition and properties of rock formations in a reservoir. Knowledge of the types and abundance of different minerals in the reservoir is crucial for accurate petrophysical interpretation, reservoir engineering practices, and stratigraphic correlation. ECS measures the elemental content of the rock, which directly impacts several physical properties that are essential for reservoir characterization, such as porosity, fluid saturation, permeability, and matrix density. The ability to accurately determine these properties leads to better reservoir mapping, improved production, and more effective resource management. Accurately de
... Show MoreCoal fines are highly prone to be generated in all stages of Coal Seam Gas (CSG) production and development. These detached fines tend to aggregate, contributing to pore throat blockage and permeability reduction. Thus, this work explores the dispersion stability of coal fines in CSG reservoirs and proposes a new additive to be used in the formulation of the hydraulic fracturing fluid to keep the fines dispersed in the fluid. In this work, bituminous coal fines were tested in various suspensions in order to study their dispersion stability. The aggregation behavior of coal fines (dispersed phase) was analyzed in different dispersion mediums, including deionized-water, low and high sodium chloride solutions. Furthermore, the effect of Sodium
... Show MoreThis investigation aimed to explain the mechanism of MFCA by applying this method on air-cooled engine factory which was suffering from high production cost. The results of this study revealed that MFCA is a useful tool to identify losses and inefficiencies of the production process. It is found that the factory is suffering from high losses due to material energy and system losses. In conclusion, it is calculated that system losses are the highest among all the losses due to inefficient use of available production capacity.
Information from 54 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) brain tumor images (27 benign and 27 malignant) were collected and subjected to multilayer perceptron artificial neural network available on the well know software of IBM SPSS 17 (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). After many attempts, automatic architecture was decided to be adopted in this research work. Thirteen shape and statistical characteristics of images were considered. The neural network revealed an 89.1 % of correct classification for the training sample and 100 % of correct classification for the test sample. The normalized importance of the considered characteristics showed that kurtosis accounted for 100 % which means that this variable has a substantial effect
... Show MoreThis paper demonstrates an experimental and numerical study on the behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) columns with longitudinal steel embedded tubes positioned at the center of the column cross-section. A total of 12 pin-ended square sectional columns of 150 × 150 mm having a total height of 1400 mm were investigated. The considered variables were the steel tube diameters of 29, 58, and 76 mm and the load eccentricity (0, 50, and 150) mm. Accordingly, these columns were divided into three groups (four columns in each group) depending on the load eccentricity (e) to column depth (h) ratio (e/h = 0, 1/3, and 1). For each group, one column was solid (reference), and the other three columns contained steel tubes with hollow rat
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