The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
In this work, strains and dynamic crack growth were studied and analyzed in thin flat plate with a surface crack at the center, subjected to cycling low velocity impact loading for two types of aluminum plates (2024, 6061). Experimental and numerical methods were implemented to achieve this research. Numerical analysis using program (ANSYS11-APDL) based on finite element method used to analysis the strains with respect to time at crack tip and then find the velocity of the crack growth under cycling impact loading. In the experimental work, a rig was designed and manufactured to applying the cycling impact loading on the cracked specimens. The grid points was screened in front of the crack tip to measure the elastic-plas
... Show Moreplanning is among the most significant in the field of robotics research. As it is linked to finding a safe and efficient route in a cluttered environment for wheeled mobile robots and is considered a significant prerequisite for any such mobile robot project to be a success. This paper proposes the optimal path planning of the wheeled mobile robot with collision avoidance by using an algorithm called grey wolf optimization (GWO) as a method for finding the shortest and safe. The research goals in this study for identify the best path while taking into account the effect of the number of obstacles and design parameters on performance for the algorithm to find the best path. The simulations are run in the MATLAB environment to test the
... Show MoreThe aim of the research was to prepare the fields and items for safe environment scale form professional basketball players and coaches’ point of view. The researchers used the descriptive method on professional athletes of players and coaches from (11) clubs; for the pilot study (21) athletes were selected and for the building sample (103) athletes, and standardization sample (101) athletes from the participants in the Iraqi league (2018-2019). The scale of the safe environment was concluded with (6) fields and (52) items. The researchers came up with the safe environment scale from the point of view of professional basketball players and coaches. Finally the researchers recommended paying attention to providing safe environment for athl
... Show MoreThe issue of penalized regression model has received considerable critical attention to variable selection. It plays an essential role in dealing with high dimensional data. Arctangent denoted by the Atan penalty has been used in both estimation and variable selection as an efficient method recently. However, the Atan penalty is very sensitive to outliers in response to variables or heavy-tailed error distribution. While the least absolute deviation is a good method to get robustness in regression estimation. The specific objective of this research is to propose a robust Atan estimator from combining these two ideas at once. Simulation experiments and real data applications show that the p
... Show MoreGingival crevicular fluid (GCF) may reflect the events associated with orthodontic tooth movement. Attempts have been conducted to identify biomarkers reflecting optimum orthodontic force, unwanted sequallea (i.e. root resorption) and accelerated tooth movement. The aim of the present study is to find out a standardized GCF collection, storage and total protein extraction method from apparently healthy gingival sites with orthodontics that is compatible with further high-throughput proteomics. Eighteen patients who required extractions of both maxillary first premolars were recruited in this study. These teeth were randomly assigned to either heavy (225g) or light force (25g), and their site specific GCF was collected at baseline and aft
... Show MoreThe present study focused mainly on the buckling behavior of composite laminated plates subjected to mechanical loads. Mechanical loads are analyzed by experimental analysis, analytical analysis (for laminates without cutouts) and numerical analysis by finite element method (for laminates with and without cutouts) for different type of loads which could be uniform or non-uniform, uniaxial or biaxial. In addition to many design parameters of the laminates such as aspect ratio, thickness ratio, and lamination angle or the parameters of the cutout such as shape, size, position, direction, and radii rounding) which are changed to studytheir effects on the buckling characteristics with various boundary conditions. Levy method of classical lam
... Show MoreNasryia oil field is located about 38 Km to the north-west of Nasryia city. The field was discovered in 1975 after doing seismic by Iraqi national oil company. Mishrif formation is a carbonate rock (Limestone and Dolomite) and its thickness reach to 170m. The main reservoir is the lower Mishrif (MB) layer which has medium permeability (3.5-100) md and good porosity (10-25) %. Form well logging interpretation, it has been confirmed the rock type of Mishrif formation as carbonate rock. A ten meter shale layer is separating the MA from MB layer. Environmental corrections had been applied on well logs to use the corrected one in the analysis. The combination of Neutron-Density porosity has been chosen for interpretation as it is c
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