The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract
This study deals with the fluctuations of oil revenues and its effect on the public debt. This can be studied through the indicators of debt sustainability, the financial, and economic indicators which express the risk of debt. The study focuses on clarification of the public debt path and its management both domestic and foreign. The sustainability of debt takes an important role according the macroeconomic variables. This study stresses the relationship between the rental economy in Iraq and the risk of the public debt, it is very important to work high oil prices, and on investigating during high work to establish a fund to support the budget deficit. This will reduce future risks arising from the use of publi
... Show MoreThe main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration
... Show MoreThe philosopher and social psychologist Erich Fromm (1900-1980), in his book "Escape from Freedom" highlighted the distinction between the "I" of the authoritarian personality and the "I" of the destructive personality based on their stance towards "the other." The former (the authoritarian self) relies on a submissive, enslaving formula, where the "I" is the master/dominator/controller/strong, while "the other" is the servant/submissive/controlled/weak, essential for perpetuating this formula. In contrast, the latter (the destructive self) relies on an annihilating, negating formula, where the "I" is existence/killer/destroyer/pe
... Show MoreWe refer in this research into linguistic binaries, try rounding of simiaei news analysis. It is known that there are branches of Linguistics called social Linguistics, divided into communicative Linguistics and media. Perhaps the best justification for the inclusion of a new curriculum in media studies is a semiotic analysis of the news. I›ve turned the speech, language and communication studies in relation to different disciplines, many research projects, and returned only old curriculum, speed shift in thought, proportional to the revolution in information and communication technology, for reality imposed on the entire world, researchers are the first affected by this enormous humanitarian Almanza. Alsimiaaeon still shy away from an
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This research aims to identify the availability of the elements of the concept of citizenship, to identify the distribution ratios of the outputs of the musical skills curriculum at the levels of educational goals associated with the elements of the concept of citizenship in the guides of teachers of musical skills for grades (12-1) in the Sultanate of Oman. A content analysis card was designed to include the teacher’s guides of musical skills for grades (12-1), which included the outputs, according to the grades with the identification of the elements of citizenship (identity, belonging, rights, participation). The results of the research revealed that the percentage of inclusion of citizenship values
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Aeration system in the cultivation of Chlorella Sp. Microalgae using dairy wastewater as culture media was addressed in the current study. This research aimed to study the effect of aeration in the bubble column bioreactor on the biological synergy between microalgae and bacteria if they are present in the same place. The results show that the sterilization stage is not the dominant step in the success of microalgae cultivation in water-rich organic waste. There is a clear convergence between the growth rate of Chlorella microalgae in the sterilized and non-sterilized culture media, which gives realism if the proposal is applied industrially. Through the information obtained the aerobic bacteria in the non-sterilized me
... Show MoreThe aim of this paper is to design artificial neural network as an alternative accurate tool to estimate concentration of Cadmium in contaminated soils for any depth and time. First, fifty soil samples were harvested from a phytoremediated contaminated site located in Qanat Aljaeesh in Baghdad city in Iraq. Second, a series of measurements were performed on the soil samples. The inputs are the soil depth, the time, and the soil parameters but the output is the concentration of Cu in the soil for depth x and time t. Third, design an ANN and its performance was evaluated using a test data set and then applied to estimate the concentration of Cadmium. The performance of the ANN technique was compared with the traditional laboratory inspecting
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