The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar for the period (31-8-2010) to (31-3-2021) has been collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and based on the statistical program SPSS and using the Box-Jenkins methodology a series was drawn. The data is analyzed and the appropriate differences are taken to achieve the stationary of the series, then diagnose the appropriate model for it and choose the best model and using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE to evaluate the predicted models to use the best model for prediction. It was found that the best models extracted in the research through the methodology are the models of the order (1,1,0), which gave the lowest value from ADF, BIC, RMAE, MAPE, and the dollar exchange rate was predicted for the year 2022
Abstract
There has been a heated controversy over the role the financial policy plays and how sufficient it is in affording the financial burden. This burden is known as the operational current expenses which the governments of various countries mainly afford, despite the discrepancy in the government’s economic policy. After the deterioration and deficit in the state budget in all countries nowadays, it was necessary to find an appropri
... Show MoreThis research discusses application Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Geographical InformationSystem (GIS) models on water quality of Diyala River using Water Quality Index (WQI). Fourteen water parameterswere used for estimating WQI: pH, Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen, Orthophosphate, Nitrate, Calcium, Magnesium,Total Hardness, Sodium, Sulphate, Chloride, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity and Total Alkalinity.These parameters were provided from the Water Resources Ministryfrom seven stations along the river for the period2011 to 2016. The results of WQI analysis revealed that Diyala River is good to poor at the north of Diyala provincewhile it is poor to very polluted at the south of Baghdad City. The selected parameters wer
... Show MorePurpose: The present study seeks to examine various history stages in which undergone by the concept of scenarios, and development of this concept to integration with the strategic management practices:
Methodology: The current study relied on a literature review and approach in providing total picture of different stages undergone by this concept.
The main results: the scenarios did not reach maturity in their quest for integration with strategic management, and still need a great effort for the maturation of this thought in the framework of strategic management, and through it can contribute in creating important knowledge evolution.
Originality and value: providing a contemporary model linking the roots of this concept and cu
unacceptable social behaviors, particularly withdrawal behavior that appears in children with autism represent a major problem hindering the process of communication with those around them and therefore the process of mergence with them be difficult.
The withdrawal causes a real affect deficit for children with autism limits the possibility of development of their intellectual and mental growth due to their solitude and the weakness of their focus in the acquisition of pedagogical skills and lack the necessary social skills to maintain the relations of friendship and enjoyment of them.
withdrawal children fail to participate
... Show MoreAttitude is an important subject that has attracted researchers and thinkers in organizational theory and organizational behavior because of its great importance in various field studies. Field evidence suggests that individuals in their daily lives or careers respond to specific events through a set of internal tendencies Internal tendencies are negative or positive and systematic. These trends tend to be invisible, not limited to certain boundaries, and involve a significant number of individuals within organizations or society.
The research aims to identify the impact of trends in the ethics of public service workers for individuals, through a sample of (72) doctors and (60) administrative staff
... Show MoreThe current research aims to provide a philosophical and knowledge framework to explain the issue of organizations dealing with Paradox phenomena by focusing on five main aspects. The first deals with the concept of paradox, and the second aspect deals with the types of forces paradox. While the third aspect regards subject of the philosophy of paradox in organization theory and the fourth side deals with methods of solving the paradox. Finally, the last side is exposed to the subject of the paradoxes of the three provided by the study (L
... Show MoreThe object of this research is to determine the effect in the differences of the correlation pattern of the micro blogging on the educational attainment of computer science curriculum for 12th grade students. I will try to test the best suited correlation and I might use the demo curriculum as well to achieve its objectives , The research method that will be used in this research is the quantitative method where we will use a sample of 60 students divided into two groups ( correlate the micro blogging - adopted the sequence pattern of relating the micro blogging) As a result, we found out that there are quantitative differences among the two groups' median , The differences goes back to the main effect of the correlation pattern of the m
... Show MoreThe City of Ember is a very interesting novel that is although intended for young readers, have so many layers and messages that are misunderstood. In this research, both the novel and the film adaptation are studied with the intent to decode the warning messages that the novelist and the director tried to introduce to the audience. The research studies four vital messages; the first message is that history repeats itself for the novel has many allusions to the history of Jews and their painful holocaust and even goes back in history the days of Moses and the Exodus, the second message tackles the conspiracy theory that states nothing happens by accident and that everything is planned and connected hence comes the third message
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